Thank You TG analysis

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> We don\'t identify HORSES as being a better or
> worse number, we say individual performances are.
> The point of what this guy does is to establish a
> HORSE as superior in some way to another. If
> that\'s true, there\'s no reason the horse shouldn\'t
> always be superior. We would have an awful lot of
> Triple Crown winners if that was true, just for
> starters.
>
> By the way, Hansen lost when he was on the lead in
> Fla, won when he came from off the pace in the
> Gotham.

Whats the difference JB??  You said why doesn\'t it matter in every race.  Your numbers don\'t matter in every race. If they did, you would never lose a wager.

As for Hansen, he won off the pace parked wide and out of traffic and trouble. Read his comments again...

\"I haven't seen anything from Hansen that indicates an ability to manage multiple stimulus. He's the kind of horse that is super in forward motion.\"....\"His individual dynamic is very high. His group dynamic, I am a little bit shady on. I don't know how he'll react if he is in a group of traffic. I do not see him as a horse that controls space. He's not managing anything. He's just moving through it. His projection is forward, always.

This is what happened in the Derby, and its what what happened in the races you mentioned. He ran to his abilities when the herd dynamics of he race allowed him.

No reason the horse shouldn\'t always be superior?? Why??  If Hansen is in a race with less traffic and less stimuli, he performs differently.  If Bodemeister gets a race with less pace pressure, he doesn\'t have to go as fast to stay in font. If TCI is in a race with different pace dynamics, it affect then from a herd dynamic standpoint.

IHA has a herd dynamic mentality that allows him to run his race.  It doesn\'t mean he will be the fastest EVERY time.  Also, there are other things that may affect a horse mentally.  Why did Hansen act like he did?? Perhaps it had something to do with his emotional makeup, as suggested by Thomas.

I\'m not saying it is Nirvana, but it also isn\'t something to be dismissed.

[mjellish]

Just my two cents about the herd dynamic stuff.

If you cut through all the bull, another way to say the same thing as this dude is saying is, \"You want a horse that is seasoned enough to relax and not let the stress of a 20 horse field get to him to win the KY Derby.\"  

If I had to pick between the two, talent or herd dynamics/seasoning or whatever this guy is saying I would take talent every time. Witout the talent I think you can only hope the race falls apart and you get there.  

But I do think there is something to what this guy is saying, and I think it goes back to what I have said on this board for 4 years now.  There is something different about the classic distances.  If you don\'t relax at 1 1/4 and ration your energy you probably don\'t win no matter how good you are at 1 1/8th.  There is a difference.  

Does Bode win this race at 1 1/8th?

Do think this dude\'s stuff applies the same way to a 7F sprint on the inner dirt at AQU?

[richiebee]

mjellish Wrote:
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> Do think this dude\'s stuff applies the same way to
> a 7F sprint on the inner dirt at AQU?

Are slow rats herd animals?

(They dont run 7/8ths on the Inner at AQ. The gate would be in the eastbound lane
of the Belt Parkway.Talk about traffic problems!)

My biggest question for HW would be how he can translate herd behavior to animals
with riders on their backs and a bit in their mouth. To me its a stretch.

Love the \"Herd Whisperer\" redboards almost as much as the \"Brisnet Bounce\"
redboards, but none top the \"thank you, (Thoro) God\" for giving me a stone cold
$5.80 winner redboards.

Maybe TGJB should set up a section of the board especially for redboards. Maybe
he can choose a \"Redboard of the Month\". But please install a \"Mark all Redboards
Read\" tab.

Selfishly, would love to see Bode in what is looking like a very strong Met Mile.

[MO]

No, what happened in the Derby was that he WASHED OUT IN THE POST PARADE, thereby leaving his race in the paddock - a NON EFFORT. In other words, ya toss the race.

[Rich Curtis]

MO: Given all the variables, this is not a sport in which you should speculate in ALL CAPS.

[MO]

hardly speculation.

[Rich Curtis]

MO,

  Somebody who can tell when horses are done in the post parade really should arrange things so that he can see the post parade before he bets.

[MO]

Thanks.

[MonmouthGuy]

Agreed. He looked like Shackleford before the Preakness last year.

[RICH]

been a user since 1995, probably shouldn\'t post this, but I won the survivor show pool contest on oaks/derby day 490 contestants for 5k using thorograph, hard to believe that no one got past race 3 in the sequence, oaks,race 8,9,10,11 on derby day, did\'nt even need the derby, thanks again

[P-Dub]

mjellish Wrote:
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> If I had to pick between the two, talent or herd
> dynamics/seasoning or whatever this guy is saying
> I would take talent every time. Witout the talent
> I think you can only hope the race falls apart and
> you get there.  
>
> But I do think there is something to what this guy
> is saying, and I think it goes back to what I have
> said on this board for 4 years now.  There is
> something different about the classic distances.
> If you don\'t relax at 1 1/4 and ration your energy
> you probably don\'t win no matter how good you are
> at 1 1/8th.  There is a difference.  

He\'s not saying herd dynamics replace talent.

He\'s saying that for some horses, they need certain things to go their way during the race in order to run their best effort. Having a strong herd mentality doesn\'t automatically make you faster, its just that some horses can overcome certain situations better than others, making it more likely you will get their best effort.

I also don\'t feel that having a rider and a bit in their mouth changes anything having to do with their natural instincts.

I will agree on one thing..

richiebee Wrote:
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> Love the \"Herd Whisperer\" redboards almost as much
> as the \"Brisnet Bounce\"
> redboards, but none top the \"thank you, (Thoro)
> God\" for giving me a stone cold
> $5.80 winner redboards.

Just classic stuff.

[sighthound]

He\'s not saying herd dynamics replace talent.

He\'s saying that for some horses, they need certain things to go their way during the race in order to run their best effort. Having a strong herd mentality doesn\'t automatically make you faster, its just that some horses can overcome certain situations better than others, making it more likely you will get their best effort.

I also don\'t feel that having a rider and a bit in their mouth changes anything having to do with their natural instincts.

This ^^^^

Horses have personalities, and horses are all about pecking order and body language:  some are brave, some fold when another attempts to dominate them, some like a fight, some are comfortable in a crowd, some need to be safe in the herd, some are comfortable passing and being out front alone.  

All the guy is doing is trying to identify characteristics that, usually, the trainer and exercise rider already know the horse possesses.  It\'s another part of the puzzle, and yes, their personalities still matter with a rider on their back, in the heat of a race - their basic temperment tendencies come more to the forefront when stressed.

If you have three horses running together with 3/16 to go, don\'t you want to know which one is tough?   Which one relishes the fight?  Which one folds to dominance?  That\'s all the \"herd whisperer\" is talking about - basic horse behaviour.

It\'s the same thing John Lyons, etc. all talk about with training horses.  It\'s what all trainers, and most people, used to know 100 years ago, but most are too busy to notice nowadays: how animals act, and why.

If you haven\'t extensively ridden horses, I can see where it seems completely foreign to some.  Riding a horse is a very subtle, emotional connection, where you have to know what they are thinking before they think it.  

But this is just the same basic behavioral horsemanship all good trainers and riders are aware of, and utilize daily.

[sighthound]

Hey, I completely agree with MO here.  I didn\'t include Hansen in any of my superfectas because I think he\'s best under 1 1/16, but the horse was done before he even got to the starting gate.  That he lasted at all in the race was amazing to me, and showed me he\'s tougher than I thought.   And yeah, I think the \"herd whisperer\" nailed his personality rather well.

[sighthound]

And I changed my bet at the last minute based upon how that horse looked ... oh, well.  The exceptions make the rules.

[TGJB]

Nice.