Oaks Derby Double Will Pays

[mjellish]

DD WILL PAYS OAKS DERBY DOUBLE

Here are the numbers with the winner and what they would have been with Grace Hall.  Estimated derby odds based on these ratios are below assuming favorite is 4-1.  Don\'t pay attention to the bottom as they don\'t go off that long.  Main use of this is not to say what the odds are likely to be but to figure out how the crowd is likely to bet the race.  Looks like Dul is going to be 4th betting choice.

(edit) sorry, this doesn\'t post very well.  Sequence is Derby horse, post, DD will pay with 9, DD will pay with 2, Est Derby Odds off 2, Est Derby Odds off 9.

      DD   DD   EST DERBY   EST DERBY
   DERBY   with 9   with 2   WITH 2   WITH 9
UR   4   104   14   4   4
BOD   6   138   22   6.3   5.3
GEM   15   169   30   8.6   7.7
DUL   5   185   38   10.9   9.4
CC   8   194   44   12.6   11.4
DNB   10   241   60   17.1   15.6
ALP   11   268   66   18.9   19.1
TCI   3   308   78   22.3   21.7
HAN   14   331   78   22.3   23.9
IHA   19   365   95   27.1   24.6
WTD   13   433   114   32.6   32.2
EL   16   468   130   37.1   35.2
SAB   18   838   223   63.7   66.5
DDL   1   894   227   64.9   68.0
TRIN   9   1120   353   100.9   81.3
OPT   2   1207   289   82.6   108.7
RS   7   1218   298   85.1   83.3
PRO   12   1294   366   104.6   90.5
DON   17   1367   382   109.1   110.5
LIA   20   1612   402   114.9   128.7

[phil23]

Great stuff.  Thanks for crunching the numbers.

[drbillym]

Did you mention Dullahan as 4th choice cuz he is your first choice?  He is my pick for a few reasons:  1) the surface issue is not unlike the question marks on Animal Kingdom last year-I think he should handle CD just fine.  2)Three weeks rest should also not be an issue-he was pawing the ground after his gallop the other day and feels good-I lean more to fresh horses in the Belmont, and like recency in the Derby.  3)  Even if a speed duel doesn\'t develop, several jocks will move too soon in their excitement-I think Kent D. is the perfect jock for this horse.  Now I AM concerned by the speed favoring surface today as pointed out by MO.  4)  Dullahan\'s last eighth of 11.3 after being unprepared at the start point him out as being closer hopefully and having a lot left at the finish.

I hope your projection of 9-1 stands correct, which seems fair to me.

[mjellish]

No.  Just wanted to point out that DUL was 4th choice.  He is the picture of health right now and ready to run a great race.  But I didn\'t like his last workout and have doubts about how much he likes the CD surface.  Different surface and I would love him.  But here, minor player at best for me and I am going to play it that way with conviction and hope it\'s right.