Bode, Baffert and the bounce?

[MO]

Bode also NEEDED to WIN in Arkansas in order to get into the gate at CD. They\'ve pushed this horse too hard, too fast.

[HP]

\"We\'ve seen that in all levels of races. If it rains, the speed stops around two turns.\"

This is just plain wrong, and it\'s even wrong if you apply it to the Derby.  Did you see the race in 2004?  Lion Heart and Smarty Jones?  Come on.  

It depends how much it rains.  And when.  A drying out track can be taxing to front runners.  If there\'s standing water on the track and it\'s pouring down rain that\'s just a totally different story.  To make this a general rule...I don\'t know where you\'re getting this from, but in my observation it\'s just not true...in the Derby or anywhere else.    

HP

[Wrongly]

HP

You might want to watch that 2004 Derby again.  Watch Lion Heart in the stretch, smarty was in 4th or 5th at the half mile so he stalked the pace.  Where was Readthefootnotes in the stretch, where did he finish?  Also watch Imperialism close through the stretch.  I didn\'t say front runner can win, I just said that Churchill becomes a very taxing surface that does favor closers.

[alm]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"We\'ve seen that in all levels of races. If it
> rains, the speed stops around two turns.\"
>
> This is just plain wrong, and it\'s even wrong if
> you apply it to the Derby.  Did you see the race
> in 2004?  Lion Heart and Smarty Jones?  Come on.
>
>
> It depends how much it rains.  And when.  A drying
> out track can be taxing to front runners.  If
> there\'s standing water on the track and it\'s
> pouring down rain that\'s just a totally different
> story.  To make this a general rule...I don\'t know
> where you\'re getting this from, but in my
> observation it\'s just not true...in the Derby or
> anywhere else.    
>
> HP


I agree with you completely.  If the track was sealed the day before and there\'s standing water on it during the race, you might get a Go For Gin.  Otherwise, it doesn\'t take long for the track to drain and while it\'s doing that it\'s deadly for that type of horse.  But you know what,who cares?  The best thing to kill off the speed in the Derby is speed.  And this renewal, at this point, has real speed in it.  Say goodnight Bode.

[HP]

Alm - agreed.

Wrongly - sorry but I could watch that race 100 times and see the same thing.  When the real running got started Smarty and Lion were 1/2 and that\'s where
they finished.  If that particular wet track favored closers then Imperialism really stank.  

I think alm\'s post put it pretty well in terms of drying out, etc.

HP