Simple Idea

[alm]

Waiting for TG\'s Derby analysis, I had this simple thought...take your shots at it.

The top 4 finishers in the BC Juvenile are all making it back to Churchill for the Derby, which is probably unusual.  No injuries or critical setbacks from there to here.  No reason to assume they won\'t tangle again.

New horses on the scene who look threatening to them include Bode, IHA and Gem.  I think Bode is most likely to bounce (see other posts that describe Baffert\'s history with similar patterns); IHA is a horse with announced problems and a not-too-great pattern; Gem is one who may be sitting on the best pattern for a jump up.

So box the BC Juvy four in verticals, going as deep as you like, for one series of bets.  Add Gem to them as a key in different vertical spots for a second series of bets.  

Contrary to what seems to be implied by many posters on the board, I think this is an improving, underraced group of 3yos and I can\'t see any weird jumpups coming up in this race.  Maybe for once we are seeing what patient handling of young horses can do.