Gemologist Derby Favorite?

[Dana666]

http://www.drf.com/news/blue-grass-gives-hansen-opportunity-regain-spotlight

Interesting discussion on the am line odds toward the bottom of the article. They take sheet numbers into account!

[sekrah]

IMO Creative Cause deserves it.   And you know how I haved pissed on West Coast horses over the years, but I think there are several of them that are  well ahead of the East\'s best at this point in time.   John Sadler wasn\'t being stupid when he sent Holy Candy to the Blue Grass.  The SA Derby was stacked and was by far the toughest prep race of the season.

I almost spit on my keyboard when I seen HC listed at 30-1 ML for the Bluegrass, he might be the best horse in this field.   That might be the most asinine morning line I\'ve ever seen in my life.

As far as Creative Cause goes, I\'ll happily take 8-1 on him as Gem, Rags, and Alpha are all overbet.

[Dana666]

I don\'t really know much about Holy Candy; he\'s been under my radar. I will look over him carefully on Saturday.

As far as Creative Cause, I always liked him. Always thought he was a quality horse. I am concerned  when I look at his sheet pattern thinking that big move second out this year might have taken something out of him. I don\'t know what number he got in the SA Derby, but I feel he might not have more improvement in him right now. You have to watch his works and see how he does in the next few weeks. While I like Harrington a lot, he has little or no Derby experience, and for me that\'s a slight negative.

I don\'t know if I share the same feeling about the strength of the California horses, but it\'s hard to know until afterwards. If you are correct and the SA derby really was strong, then you\'d have to upgrade Creative Cause, but I\'m not sure. Only Creative Cause and I\'ll Have Another had any kind of fast numbers coming into that race; the rest were pretty slow. I know the Pletcher haters will not be too happy about that last remark. He is just coming into his prime as a trainer. Now are the years where it all comes together for him.

Gemologist burst onto the scene for me last year when he won at CD in that stake race beating that Sheppard horse (name escapes me?) I really liked at the time. I guess he missed some time or something, but to me he\'s the one I want to focus on. I think Pletcher is is going to win many derbies, and he may start a streak this year.

[Dana666]

Sorry that message got messed up--you can figure out what I was saying. The line about Pletcher haters was supposed to go at the end . It\'s too early for me to type. I need to wake up.

[miff]

Had to be referring to TG sheet numbers where,like Beyer, Union Rags has not run fast. Prior to his last, UR had figs like TG 1/2 and 3/4 on Rags Sheets.

[ajkreider]

Holy Candy sure looks fast enough, but I don\'t know what to make of the race shape of his last (his win).  They went the half in 48.6, which might be the slowest of any race at the meet.  (What does that translate to at Aqueduct, 51.0?)  And then they came flying home, sort of.  Last 1/8 in 12.2 or something.  Seems like it was run like a turf race, which should help him here - though there will be a much faster pace, as there are at least 4 horses who will want the lead.  At 30-1 I guess you have to take a shot.

I can\'t make up my mind about the Cali horses. (The Derby package can\'t come soon enough!)  

Santa Anita has been so fast - even state bred claimers are able to run sub 1:09 for 6F. But, they have shipped well (Castaway, Secret Circle, Stirred Up, Rousing Sermon - Holy Candy flattered by two of these).  Bode is the deserving favorite in Arkansas.

[Lost Cause]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>  
>
> Gemologist burst onto the scene for me last year
> when he won at CD in that stake race beating that
> Sheppard horse (name escapes me?) I really liked
> at the time.

That Shepherd horse is running in the Blue Grass and might give you a chance to make back your money.

[Dana666]

Thanks for the info. Now, I really have to look at the Blue Grass. Ever So Lucky is his name by the way and he\'s 12-1 in the am line.

[Topcat]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> IMO Creative Cause deserves it.   And you know how
> I haved pissed on West Coast horses over the
> years, but I think there are several of them that
> are  well ahead of the East\'s best at this point
> in time.   John Sadler wasn\'t being stupid when he
> sent Holy Candy to the Blue Grass.  The SA Derby
> was stacked and was by far the toughest prep race
> of the season.
>
> I almost spit on my keyboard when I seen HC listed
> at 30-1 ML for the Bluegrass, he might be the best
> horse in this field.   That might be the most
> asinine morning line I\'ve ever seen in my life.
>
> As far as Creative Cause goes, I\'ll happily take
> 8-1 on him as Gem, Rags, and Alpha are all
> overbet.


You can get all the 12-1 you want on CC, overseas . . .