Super Derby

[kev]

Ok i have had enough,i\'m going crazy. Let\'s drop it, your not going to change sheet player\'s mind and their not going to change yours. That\'s one thing we all can agree with. If anything you all could combine the two style\'s and work something out. Next topic...............

[jbelfior]

Sorry Kev, I have to make one more point.

Classhandicapper---I understand your thoughts and opinions. That\'s the beauty of this game. Everyone takes a different look at things. If you feel that TMW achieved his outstanding figure under optimum circumstances, then perhaps you can conclude that his number in the Travers is not a true reflection of him. I agree with you on how TMW may have achieved his Travers #, however it is still the number he achieved regardles of the circumstances. An example would be my thoughts on ALDEBAREN\'S performance in the Forego which came against a loose on the lead NAJRAN who was not tiring when ALDEBAREN collared him at the top of the stretch. My feelings is that the # he achieved was more reflective of what kind of sprinter he is.

>An example would be my thoughts on ALDEBAREN\'S performance in the Forego which came against a loose on the lead NAJRAN who was not tiring when ALDEBAREN collared him at the top of the stretch. My feelings is that the # he achieved was more reflective of what kind of sprinter he is.<

I also believe that ALDEBAREN ran a legitimate figure.

[asfufh]

IMHO, jockeys appear to have a profound impact on how a horse races against the early pace set by the leader(s). A closer who runs 5 lengths off the an \"average\" early pace does not necessarily run closer to the leader(s) in a slow early paced race or farther back against a fast early pace. I presume this is because the jockey determines to a great extent where the horse is positioned during the race and frequently misjudges the pace in doing so.
If a horse always ran proportionately closer or farther way from the leaders depending on early fractions, then handicapping the races would be greatly simplified as most horses would then run the same final time in each of their races assuming they were in shape and avoided trouble.
I guess what i am trying to say is that i agree with classhandicapper to the extent that something(pace or whatever) not yet reflected in the figs is impacting the final times of many(but not all) races.

[TGJB]

As I have said, I don\'t buy the logic of the pace one horse runs at affecting the final time of a different horse running at a slower pace, and I certainly don\'t think horses would put in the same performance every time if they ran the same fractions. In terms of helping a horse WIN (as opposed to earn a better figure) a fast pace helps closers because it strings out the field, helping closers avoid major ground loss (\"looping the field\"), which could result in a 2-3 length difference at the wire. But remember, ground loss is factored into the figure, so the TG number will be the same either way.

It would be more constructive if these discussions took place before the fact-- if a situation comes up where pace considerations lead you to conclusions contrary to those expressed in ROTW or elsewhere here, speak up, guys. Red- boarding \"this was caused by this not that\" has limited productivity.

>As I have said, I don\'t buy the logic of the pace one horse runs at affecting the final time of a different horse running at a slower pace<

I never said that. That\'s the confusion.

Let\'s forget horses and think humans. It might make it easier for me to tranlate into English.

Assume we are racing and you have the lead. You run average/slow early and I am behind you. I make a middle move trying to catch up. I will have to use myself real hard to catch up because you will still be fresh as a result of not exerting yourself too much early. At some point after using myself to catch up, we will engage in a ferocious battle for awhile before one of us wins.

In this sceanrio, there was obviously a point in the race where I as running at close to my limit trying to catch up and battle you for the lead. That taxed me and used up energy not available very late.  

Now let\'s assume another race where I run the same style, but there\'s a third runner that duels you early and really hard. I will again make my same style middle move, but this time when I engage you, you will already be tired and slowing down as a result of your extreme efforts early. So my personal effort in trying to catch up and pass you will NOT be as taxing on me.  

In the second scenario you will run slower because you used yourself harder early and I will run faster because I used myself less in the middle to catch up and pass you.

 >I certainly don\'t think horses would put in the same performance every time if they ran the same fractions. <

No doubt about that.

>In terms of helping a horse WIN (as opposed to earn a better figure) a fast pace helps closers because it strings out the field, helping closers avoid major ground loss (\"looping the field\"), which could result in a 2-3 length difference at the wire. But remember, ground loss is factored into the figure, so the TG number will be the same either way.<

Agreed.

>It would be more constructive if these discussions took place before the fact-- if a situation comes up where pace considerations lead you to conclusions contrary to those expressed in ROTW or elsewhere here, speak up, guys. Red- boarding \"this was caused by this not that\" has limited productivity.<

I would be happy to from time to time. One problem we could have with a discussion like that is that I generally look at multiple sets of figures - Beyer, Logic Dictates and your figures (all mostly for stakes). So
there\'s lots of other subjective things that could come up that would cloud the pace issue. So it might be best to talk about the really extreme pace scenarios.

>IMHO, jockeys appear to have a profound impact on how a horse races against the early pace set by the leader(s).<

I agree with you on that.

[jbelfior]

Classhandicapper--

My last post on this, I promise. There is also the school of thought that class horses, especially the GR I or II types overcome any pace scenario. In most cases, not all, I agree with that. In my experience I have found that looking at pace figures for GR I or GR II types is mostly a waste of time.  The final number for this class usually tells the story. Where I agree with you is that the final number may end up to be be more impressive under the more favorable circumstances. With a slower pace in the TRAVERS, TMW may still have been an impressive winner while perhaps running a zero or negative 1.

PS: Just got news that EMPIRE MAKER is out of the JCGC and perhaps the BC.....hmmmm...


JOE B.

I agree with everything you said. I think some very high quality horses have reserves of stamina etc... Last post for me in this too. :-)