Somali Lemonade today in the feature at Keenland

[covelj70]

I don\'t usually post about horses that will be one of the choices and might even be the favorite but the way this filly broke her maiden and the kind of figure she ran first out despite alot of trouble was really something special.

This was not a loose on the lead, track biased questionable figure that isn\'t likely to be replicated, she ran a graded stakes winning number overcoming all kinds of trouble in the race.  It was the kind of win that makes me laugh when people blame a bad trip for why a horses runs out of the money.  Great horses overcome bad rides, bad trips, wide trips, bad posts, pace bias, etc and I think this is a great filly.

Not only do I think she is better than even money to win this race, I think she\'s one of the most likely winners of the 2 days of the Breeders Cup.

Now, with all of this, I am sure I have hopelessly jinxed this poor filly and her connections but I hope not as I think she could really be something special and I can\'t wait to see her run today.

good luck to everyone

[TGJB]

How do I book the ml favorit in that one at close to the ml...

But one of the most likely winners of the BC? Off one sprint?

Matz and Motion have been getting some very interesting figures for the last few months. I know, they would never...

Re Dutrow-- the closest analogy I can come up with is getting Capone for income tax. He was using Allday for years, but whatever they were doing (and Allday has admitted cheating, I know this factually), it wasn\'t the stuff they caught Dutrow with all those times-- only a couple were true move-up things (specifically the huge TCO2 overage in Kentucky).

[covelj70]

perhaps I am getting a bit carried away with the BC part but most of the fillies in that race will only go in with 2 starts or so and I doubt any of them will have a better figure than the one she ran to break her maiden.  I know last year\'s juv fillies turf went very fast but I think they were exceptional fillies (at least one of them was).

[Michael D.]

good call Jim. making a horse like this better than even money to win is a good way to crush the pk3, 4, and 5.

very impressive race. :12.14 final 1/8 over the boggy going. she certainly is bred to be a good one.

Sweet Cat wasn\'t too bad either, clearing the show filly by 9.

[covelj70]

thanks Buddy,

was tough to make alot of money on this one but singles and doubles help to

I really do think she\'s going to give them all they can handle in the BC Juv Fillies.

I will be anxious to see what Jerry does with the nunmber given the other turf races were taken off the turf so no comparables and the fact that the first 2 were 9 and 10 clear of the 3rd horse makes it kind of interesting as well.

Either way, I can\'t wait to hopefully see her run at CD in a few weeks.

[covelj70]

90 beyer going 6 or 7 wide on the 2nd turn.

If JB sees it the same way, she\'s going to have a figure heading into the BC that would allow her to win even with a bounce.

[Wrongly]

Jim

Nice pick and I\'m sure the fact that she\'s sired by Lemon Drop Kid didn\'t sway you at all.  Just saying, but MAYBE A. O\'Brien might have something to say about the Philly Juvy Turf.

[miff]

Jim,

Wonder if SL performs best with give in the turf as her two nice wins both came on non firm ground.Only grass race of the day, Beyer has her in the TG 4.5 range(with ground loss, thought she was more, kinda 3 wide traversing that last turn with a late 6-7 wide swing out)

SL nice filly,euro Elusive Kate comes with reputation.Good luck


Mike

p.s QE 11 at Kee better ROTW with the \"slow, overrated\" Winter Memories tackling a tough bunch of runners.

[TGJB]

The QE II is a great race, and WM will be way overbet. I would do it as ROTW if I could figure out how to separate them-- it\'s some tough bunch. Several of them have real futures.

I\'m going to go on record and predict a North American based filly will win the juv fillies turf. The ones out of the Canadian race, SL and the one behind her are VERY good relative to where that division usually is.

Won\'t be doing SL\'s figure for a few days but the most obvious scenario is that the third filly ran another 11 (hard to believe she could run worse and still get third). Based just on beaten lengths that would give the first two in the 4-6 range, depending on ground of all concerned.

[richiebee]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The QE II is a great race, and WM will be way
> overbet. I would do it as ROTW if I could figure
> out how to separate them-- it\'s some tough bunch.
> Several of them have real futures.
>
> I\'m going to go on record and predict a North
> American based filly will win the juv fillies
> turf. The ones out of the Canadian race, SL and
> the one behind her are VERY good relative to where
> that division usually is.
 

If the Canadian race is the Natalma, your theory got a boost yesterday when
Hard Not to Like (7.00) (by Hard Spun) beat colts in Woodbine\'s Cup & Saucer
stakes, a mile 1-1/16th stake limited to Canadian foaled runners (race ended
up with all Ontario breds).

HNTL beat colts previously in a prep for the Summer Stakes; she then ran a
troubled fifth in the Natalma. In the C&S yesterday, she had a huge TG edge on
some less seasoned colts and geldings.

Do not know about her future plans, but she won pretty professionally and may
have improved on her TG 6 in the Summer prep (not sure about wind yesterday).
She is now 3/4 lifetime, all on turf.

Would have pre-posted on this one but she looked a short price, and I was busy
preparing a writing sample for The Occupied Wall Street Journal just in
case the Official Paper of the Flea Party wants to hire a Racing writer.

Speaking of Woodbine, todays 200K guaranteed P4 features the EP Taylor (field
of 11), an allowance race (9 runners), the Canadian International (16 entered,
I don\'t think a single US based runner) and finishes with an allowance race (12
runners). Thats something like 19,000 combinations, good thing Woodbine offers
$.20 P4s.