The Travers according to the Sheets

[covelj70]

In my opinion, for anyone who adheres strictly to sheets and sheet theory, the Travers is about a stragithforward of a betting race as you will see.

Of course we all know that every race doesn\'t go according to strict adherence to the sheets for various reasons but for those of us that bet most races (except the Belmont and the BC Marathon given the distance) as if it does given that the percentages will work out for you in the long run, this one is a green light type of situation.

As usual, I am not going to give precise numbers since that would be taking money out of Jerry\'s pocket and heaven knows I wouldn\'t want to do that but we can get the full picture without giving away the numbers.

First, the 3 favorites (Stay Thirsty, Coil, and Shackleford) are all coming off of big new tops and drew outside.  So all of them are likely to bounce and/or lose ground.  There\'s a long run to the turn at a mile and a quarter at the spa so the horses with tactical speed should be able to get over before the turn but the outside posts still create some ground loss risk.

It\'s always dangerous assuming 3 quality horses are all going to bounce so if I lose this bet, it\'s likely going to be because one of them is able to pair up but I am willing to take this risk. All 3 of them are coming off of relatively short rest given the kind of new tops they ran.  Also, Coil is a candidate for the 2nd time poly/dirt bounce that Jerry likes to highlight.  He breezed awesome this week (got that from people who saw it) but so did Plum Pretty before the Alabama and we saw how important that was last weekend. Of the 3 favorites, Stay Thirsty is the one that worries me the most because he is the fastest of the 3 favs and because we have no worries about the surface or distance with him.  I do worry about the distance issues with Shackleford and he looks like a bounce candidate as I mentioned before anyway so I am more confident tossing him.

So, if we don\'t like the 3 favorites, who do we like.

The sheets point us very clearly in the direction of Ruler on Ice who would be a fabulous play at the 6-1 ML.

1) he\'s as fast as anyone in the race other than Stay Thirsty\'s last
2) he has paired tops so not as obvious of a bounce candidate as the 3 favs
3) there\'s no distance concerns given that he ran a top at a mile and a half in the Belmont
4) if the track comes up sloppy, we know he can handle that from the Belmont slop fest
5) he drew a good post so he shouldn\'t lose too much ground, at least on first turn

The one question mark is that he hasn\'t run over the surface at Saratoga but the horse has run his race (pair or new tops) on 7 different racetracks in his last 7 races.  Good horses can run their race over any surface and he seems like a good horse so I am willing to bet that he can handle the spa surface, especially given that the issue at the spa this year has been how tiring how the track has been and he seems to be the stamina type that would be ok on this year\'s spa surface.

In terms of the others,

Bowmans\' Causeway is slow slow to compete with these

Rattlesnake Bridge is somewhat interesting but also is coming off a new top which still isn\'t fast enough to win and with the Cherokee Run on the bottom side, I don\'t know that this one wants a mile and a quarter

Moonshine Mullin is also a bit too slow and subject to the 2nd time poly/dirt bounce as is Coil

Malibu Glow would be interesting if he hadn\'t born out in making the new top last out

Raison D\'etat would be very interesting with fast paired tops if he hasdn\'t born in AND born out in his last

JW Blue has a healthy pattern but is a bit slow and drew outside.  If you are looking for a bomb to get a piece, he\'s not a bad choice

As always, there are a million way this analysis could be wrong.

If I miss here, it\'s most like because one of the favorites can pair up and overcome the outside draw or one of the horses that BI/BO last time isn\'t effected yet.

However, if you subscribe like alot of us do to what the sheets are all about, this one is straighforward and therefore deserves a large play on Ruler on Ice.

thoughts/criticisms welcome as always.

Good luck on Sat.

[covelj70]

Before someone points out that Shackleford\'s last was only 1 point off his previous top and thus not a big new lifetime top, I should point out that my expectation for him to bounce is based on the fact that he has bounced off of big efforts before and so it\'s not that he ran a big new top (only 1 point) but that he has historically bounced off the new tops before so it\'s this issue and the post (less of an issue) and the distance that make me not like him.

just wanted to clarify

[Bigredgoer]

My only concern with Shack is that he looks to be the controlling speed in this race
and if left alone could be very dangerous turning for home when they all have to catch him... any thoughts?

[covelj70]

Plum Pretty was the controlling speed last weekend in the Alabama at the Spa and she spit the bit

Shack was the controlling speed in the Derby and he didn\'t get it done there either.

ALso, I can promise you that Martin Garcia on Baffert\'s instructions in no way shape or form will allow Shack to have an easy lead.  Coil will be pressing him every step of the way after that 46 and change breeze.

[phil23]

I concur on Baffert.  He\'s not stupid and he can read a form.  And Coil had been speed prior to the bad break in the Haskel.  

Going to be a good race.

[Bigredgoer]

You are probably correct but I don\'t think for one minute that Baffert will sacrifice Coil\'s chances just to make sure Shack has some token pressure

[joekay]

Shack is at his best when he can bottom out the rest on the lead.  That won\'t happen in the Travers; where I expect no faster than 48+ and 1:13.  That makes Shack very vulnerable: he could miss the TRI or the SFA. If that\'s the case, \"Gr1 horses win Gr1 races\" may hold true.  I\'m leaning heaviest on ROI, with Coil and ST and hoping that MM, with a pattern of improving 2nd off the layoff, can sneak in and grab a piece for 3rd or 4th. Also, worried about Mott\'s horse...have to use him too.

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Plum Pretty was the controlling speed last weekend
> in the Alabama at the Spa and she spit the bit
>
> Shack was the controlling speed in the Derby and
> he didn\'t get it done there either.
>
> ALso, I can promise you that Martin Garcia on
> Baffert\'s instructions in no way shape or form
> will allow Shack to have an easy lead.  Coil will
> be pressing him every step of the way after that
> 46 and change breeze.

I\'m going for the theory that horses that run a big new top break poorly the race after.  I have seen it happen so many times I stopped doubting it..So i\'m seeing a loose Shack with coil sitting a loose second feeling like he can do it anytime and then not being able to put in the same explosive run as he did in his last.