Couple of thoughts on the Belmont

[mjellish]

1 1/2 on the dirt.  Something you don\'t see often, and something most of these will never see again on any surface.  As has been posted on the board, I think you have to make the distance one of, if not THE, dominant factors while looking at this field.  Track condition could factor in here.  Belmont started out wet today and weather could be hit or miss for more rain all day.

Truth be told, I have no idea what to expect in the Belmont.  I have some ideas, but nothing I would empty my wallet into.  There are so many unknowns that I think it is tough to play anything with a high degree of confidence.  But here are some thoughts anyway.

If you like to bet horses based on how they have run, then you probably would have to make AK the most likely winner here.  He\'s the KY Derby winner.  He didn\'t like having dirt kicked back in his face during the Preakness and found himself pretty far back with too much left to do.  But he did well to grind his way up to just miss.  You would also have to consider him one of the horses to move up with the added distance, and from all accounts he is the picture of a colt in good health.  Motion sent him out for some work over the Belmont strip before the race today, which is something he didn\'t do before the Preakness.  He also worked AK and the colt showed more early speed than in the past with a really, really strong gallop out afterwards.  So it would appear a good effort closer to the early pace is forthcoming.  But... Another way to look at AK would be to play devil\'s advocate that three hard dirt race in 5 weeks could lead to a regression.  It often does.  I don\'t know that that is right here, but as the favorite I think he is an underlay.  So I am going to play the Belmont as if he will AK will not fire his \"A\" race.

Many thinking the expected pace will be average or slow and that SHAK will just gallop along on the front.  Could be true.  But I think someone is going to try to go with him and least keep him honest.  There\'s 12 other trainers all staring at the same thing we are seeing.  No early pace.  But I don\'t think anyone is going press SHAK into a 47 second 1/2. I\'ve seen him run enough now to know that having another horse to run with will probably benefit him.  He\'s got a nice, relaxed early stride and he does what he has to do.  But when he makes the lead he waits on horses.  And I am of the opinion that 1 1/2 is too far for him based on pedigree.  So I think he runs well until the top of the lane but I just can\'t see him holding on at 1 1/2 for the win no matter what the early pace.  The others are going to be coming eventually and I think a few of them are just much better suited to the distance. SHAK\'s not getting much respect though, again.  So his odds will probably be fair or more than fair and I can\'t blame anyone who wants to play him to win or use him.

Nehro has a pedigree that says he should do well at 1 1/2, and the way he has run would seem to confirm this.  Stamina is not his issue.  Comes in with 5 weeks rest and a forward moving pattern with a very competitive top.  I don\'t like how he tends to keep getting second, and I usually never play these types to win.  But as I posted here a few weeks ago, you can make a strong argument that he is likely to run well and keying him for second may not be a bad idea.  I just hate the thought of structuring a bet that way though and then watching him win to beat me.  So I will use Nehro, but I am not going to structure a bet around him.

Master of Hounds almost sure to take every nickel from across the pond.  He will be an underlay no matter what.  So I think you let him beat you.

Mucho Macho Man looks like a tired horse to me.  If he rebounds, so be it.  I\'m of the opinion that lost shoes aside, he really doesn\'t have anymore excuses.  If he was going to break through it should have been 3 weeks ago.  Getting Dominguez is a huge plus at Belmont, but I\'m going to let him beat me.

Santiva has run one figure that would make him competitive here - his wide effort in the Risen Star.  Since then he did nothing on Poly, which I can forgive.  And he didn\'t fire on the quirky Derby surface in Louisville.  So now he comes into this with a good pedigree for 1 1/2 off of two non-efforts.  He\'s also the type of non-athletic horse that should benefit from the configuration of Belmont.  Those wide sweeping turns are forgiving for grinders like him.  He\'s been training forwardly, and I think his last two efforts are tosses.  So I think you can use him, but I can\'t key him.

I look at Brilliant Speed as a turfer.  He runs like it.  He\'s bred for it.  These types rarely do well at Belmont.  He gets an inflated fig from his wide effort in the Derby on a day when the track played slow early, fast late like a turf race.  He\'s getting bet and his odds aren\'t fair, so he\'s a toss for me here.

Stay Thirsty is an interesting horse.  Tough to find one that is better bred than this to win the Belmont.  He ran a big number at 2 in the Hopeful.  Made a premature wide move into the the pace during his first try around two turns in the BC before tiring.  He came off the shelf at 3 and came close to pairing his 2 year old top in winning the Gotham.  Then shipped back to FL and completely washed out in the heat leading to a non-effort for the FL Derby.  During the KY Derby he got stuck down on the worst part of the track most of the way and didn\'t seem to like being on the inside anyway, leading to another non-effort.  But he came out of that good and has added weight and been training really, really well over the Belmont surface.  There\'s a lot of question marks here.  But he\'s going to be a big price, he should like an off track and he has enough tactical speed to stay close and secure a good stalking trip.  In a race where I have no firm opinion and there are a lot of questions marks, I think he\'s as good anyone to structure a bet around.  So I am going invest about $1500 to use him as a key horse in the verticals, and I am going to single him in the pick 4.  

I am not at all confident or even expecting that I am going to win.  I am simply punting by putting my money on a bomber with a shot.  Seems as good as anyway to play this year\'s Belmont.

[bellsbendboy]

Always a solid analysis MJ.

My take is somewhat different.  Off the racing form, Animal Kingdom dominates this bunch. His detractors are using the third race in five weeks and that is the only knock, but if he improves... he wins well clear.  Since Baltimore, as you have pointed out this chestnut has trained lights out and looks formidable indeed.

Not to take the chalk, especially with the track condition probably not to his liking, but the other part of my opinion is a dislike for Shackleford.  His pedigree says he has no chance at twelve poles and if that is not enough to toss him, he usually gets very hot and the outside post this day, this trip, this race, in New York, not the best place for a nervous colt.

As for the others only Mucho Macho Man entices and he should fill out the exacta. Florida bred does not have the ideal pedigree but he is pure racehorse, has been trained to the minute, gets Ramon and the rest of the field is eligible for nonwinners twice other than.  bbb

[Silver Charm]

Santiva is worth a small rooting interest stab here at this price. Dirt figures are good and Derby effort was too. Other than Nehro nothing else in here is all that exciting with freshness concerns etc. Actually think on this surface with the speed bias Animal Kingdom does fire all.