Nehro

[MonmouthGuy]

Agreed on keying a different slot.  Keying Afleet Again for 3rd and 4th in the Super last year in the Travers bailed out my summer.

[TGJB]

The views in the post above are those of the poster, not the company line. Man.

[TGAB]

And you\'ll get it, Jim.

[TGAB]

Just to clarify, if you try to handicap without figures, you will be hamstrung. Invariably the first item of info one needs to know is how fast the participants are, maybe not at this distance specifically, but close to and the patterns, lines graphically laid out provide an overall picture of form and condition.  

I remember the pre-Beyer days when I\'d be at Belmont or Aqueduct trying to figure out just how fast the horses were. Initially I used the DRF variant ratings but they were obviously flawed. The \"who-beat-who\" class designations occasionally worked but rarely at a big price. I knew what others knew. Didn\'t know any workout guys so I only read what others read. Of course, there were figures available, people who followed trainers and pedigrees. This info was out there and it was much more esoteric, not mainstream, then it is now. Gathering data was pencil-to-paper as Beyer details in \"Picking Winners.\"

I guess the point is quite simply that knowing how fast horses is the foundation from which to make more refined judgements. If you don\'t know that you have much more of a chance to be off by a difference in kind as opposed to degree.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Alan and I already bet, I say AK will be favored.


You win Jerry, AK will be favored.

[Lost Cause]

Agree there.  If AK runs he will be favored.  Anybody else want some action there let me know i\'m game.

[jbelfior]

No bet.

 AK will definitely be favored unless, of course, they run Dialed-In and guys like Litfin or Watchmaker convince the masses that the \"added ground\" is what he\'s always needed. Then of course if that doesn\'t work, they can always point to the 2 mile Display Handicap at Aqueduct  (oh, they don\'t run that anymore???).

Seriously....AK will be 2-1 or less.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[spa]

I think putting Nehro in the second hole is a sound betting angle......reminds me of musket man in the 3rd hole a couple years ago in the Preakness

[Lost Cause]

jbelfior Wrote:
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> 2 mile Display Handicap at Aqueduct  (oh, they
> don\'t run that anymore???).
> Joe B.


Passing Ships...Klesaris after the claim..If memory serves..

[sekrah]

The fact that everyone is thinking the same follied logic, \"Nehro likes to run 2nd\" means there will be no value and makes keying Nehro 2nd the worst possible betting angle you could use in the Belmont.  Key him to win and you collect all the suckers\' money.

[jbelfior]

Lost:

Good one; or Seany Bear gate to wire in the freezing cold of the Inner Tundra. Ahh, those were the days my friend.

As for the subject matter, why do I want to play a Mineshaft to get a mile and a half at 7/2??


Good Luck,
Joe B.