The Belmont and why the sheets don't matter for this one race

[covelj70]

The Belmont is the one race this year where I think the sheets (or any other speed figures) are pretty much irrelevant.

First, who can run well at this distance is alot more important than who ran faster or who has the better pattern at shorter distances.  This distance is a completely different ball game and relying too much on past performances at shorter distances will kill you in this race.

Second, for the 3 of them that may be running their 3rd race in 5 weeks, I will throw them out because of all of the precedent that exists about how difficult that is to do successfully.  It will take a tremendous effort for one of the ones who ran in the derby and the preakness to run well enough to win this and if one of them bucks decades of history and beats me, so be it.  They will be too short priced for me to play anyway.

I will simply look for which of the freasher horses wants to run that distance and not worry about who\'s a point or two faster than the others or who has a slightly better pattern than the others.

None of the last 5 winners were the fastest horeses coming into the race but they all won because they were all bred to get this distance.

Drosselmeyer, Summer Bird, Da\'Tara, Rags to Richces, and Jazil.  None of them the fastest going in although a few of them did have good patterns.

I will, as always, rely on the sheets heavily for the undercard but not for the big race this year.

[TGJB]

I hit two of the five you mention, had the right idea (along with everyone else here) when D\' Tara pulled the race of his life out of his ass, and have done real well on the Belmont over the years. Using TG. Sheets analysis and who\'s fast are two different things.

[covelj70]

I distinctly remember that you liked Rags to Riches (who fits the profile of fresh and bred for the distance) but I don\'t remember you having the other 4 as the most likely winner in the Belmont analysis?

I know you didn\'t have Dross last year on top and I know you liked Charitable Man the year before so Summer Bird wasn\'t the most likely winner. I don\'t remember the analysis on Jazil but did you make him the likely winner in the analysis that year?

[TGJB]

Gave out a 3 horse box in the Summer Bird one, though I did like CM best. Kerrison was nice enough to write me up afterward.

[covelj70]

so just to be clear, which 2 did you say you hit?

Summer Bird and Rags to Riches?

If that\'s the case, first, I think a little misleading as you had CM as the most likely winner so if another horse wins and the most likely winner finishes 4th (much to the pain of my bank account), I don\'t think you can really say you hit that one but more to the point, both of those winners fit the distance breeding and fresh horse profile that I was talking about (as did the other 3 most recent winners).

You know I think the TG sheets are the most valuable handicapping tool available, that\'s not the issue, the issue is their value in this particular race.

[number5858]

I understand your point about the TG patterns because of the distance, but don\'t forget about the other valuable information on the sheets. To me, the pedigree information is most important for this race. They say the best horse wins the Belmont, or maybe it is the classiest horse. I have had pretty good luck with that angle.

[djr2000]

The value of the TG sheets to me is in helping to eliminate horses and narrow down the field to the most likely to win or compete in this particular race.

[TGJB]

As I recall it was a 3 horse box, with CM to win. They ran 1-2-4, he was 4th. Checkable if if you want to take the time to do a search in the Post.

[covelj70]

I don\'t think that Drosselmeyer, D\'Tara, or Jazil could be considered the best horses in the race or of their crop by any stretch.  Matter of fact, they weren\'t very good at all.  None of them went on to do anything post the race (guess Dross still has a chance).

[number5858]

I was thinking of horses like Empire Maker and Birdstone. These were years in which I felt like they had a decided advantage because of their breeding to go long.

[Rich Curtis]

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/horse_racing/thoro_graph_president_gave_spot_uA0GvLZgvsmXMvtM2KWSIJ

[jbelfior]

Cove:

I agree with you to an extent. The ability to run well in the Belmont may have more to do with evenly distributing energy.  However I will use the numbers in certain areas.

I prefer the colt with (1) superior stamina pedigree on the dam side and (2) best numbers at 1 1/16th. ...why? IMO, the pace profile for 1 1/16 translates best to a 1 1/2.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[number5858]

...why? IMO, the pace profile for 1 1/16
> translates best to a 1 1/2.
...
Joe, can you please explain why?

[jbelfior]

Number:

Races at a 1 1/16 tend to have more evenly distributed fractions. The ability to wire indicates an ability to relax and effectively  distribute energy. The ability for a closer to win at the distance under that pace profile   is equally as impressive.


Good Luck,
Joe B.