I think maybe Dance City could be a great bet in the Preakness

jbelfior · May 16, 2011, 12:40:59 PM

Sek:

Let me clarify the \"confusing\" post.

IMO, MC ran a better SA Derby (off a 5 week layoff and only a 6.5 f and 1 mile race as preps) than DI\'s Derby. Dialed In passed tired horses at a distance many of them could not negotiate despite an easy pace.

Best of luck if you use DI at 5-1.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

miff · May 16, 2011, 12:45:34 PM

Phil,

Flashpoint, with a heavy sprint pedigree, demands odds of at least 20-1 but he\'ll go off about half of that.He\'s fastest sprinting, which may not be relevant at the Preakness distance.7 weeks spacing may be a negative,not a positive for a horse that has not yet won around 2 turns and is very lightly raced.

Good Luck!

Mike

Ill-bred · May 16, 2011, 01:03:44 PM

The Dance City work was ok.

He went fast early and put away his workmate. But he was slowing down at the wire.

I think he\'s a serious pace factor in the Preakness.

sekrah · May 16, 2011, 05:53:41 PM

We can agree to disagree. I thought those horses in front of Dialed In had no more reason to be tired than he did. Only two horses made big moves into that slow pace. Animal Kingdom and Dialed In.

sekrah · May 16, 2011, 05:54:50 PM

Agree Ill-bred. I was in the teeny tiny minority forecasting a slow paced Derby. The Preakness will be significantly quicker on the front end.

jbelfior · May 16, 2011, 06:57:23 PM

Now that I agree with. Not sure that makes DI a contender. He just didn\'t look right to me.

Beware of Shirreffs. He\'s done more with less.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

mjellish · May 16, 2011, 07:06:56 PM

From what I hear DI looks worse for the wear since the Ky Derby and is galloping like a sore horse. My understanding, however, is that he has always galloped rather poorly. If you like him, he should get more of a pace to run at in the Preakness. But I am not going to use him. I think he is more of a closing miler than anything else, and he doesn\'t seem right to me.

I don\'t like Nehro much either if he runs. 4 races in 8 weeks, and I think he likes to take second anyway.

Also, even though he caught a bad rail, I would be surprised if Shak runs as good or better in the Preakness with all the extra speed. He can rate though, which is a big plus.

I\'m looking elsewhere for the winner of the Preakness. Have to see the sheets and the draw.

Donut · May 16, 2011, 07:46:00 PM

Jc
Good studying pal. I like him too. Not sure how he relaxes and rates in this field though. May be a little short on experience,still like him though. 1 thing that skeeves me about DC is that he got beat by arturs tale in 1st race.Like nehro but he hates to win. aK I think will b real tough. Get ready for silver train their all coming bk good. Crossed the line should\'ve won the other day just needs to relax out of gate.

MonmouthGuy · May 17, 2011, 06:02:14 AM

IMHO, fair odds on DI would be `12-1 plus. He has yet to run fast enough to hit the board and I can\'t see anything more than a 3 here. He is likely to be an underlay again and may only running because of the $5.5MM bonus opportunity.

Flighted Iron · May 17, 2011, 10:05:11 PM

Horses can hang for whatever.A rider once told me about a horse he rode that was beaten in a long stretch duel.He was pissed not about the fact of loss,but \"that bum hung and wasn\'t even close to blowin\".

The point isn\'t about either of those.I\'m looking for consistencies and the ever rare
inconsistency.The good works,the good race,the good works,the collision,the bad race,the good works,the good race,the good works,the 20+/1.

Your\'re referencing those trainers as they\'re my answer to cashing?Are you serious?This is Horseracing. A close friend of mine(cuuuuzzzz)once met Jack Van Berg in what was fairly informal.As he speaks: Van Berg said \"he was a great horse winning all those races despite all the mistakes I made with him\".You\'re counting on any or all of your team not?

I think there is value in using SA in the exotics
and you think(help here shanahan)SA is a hangin P.O.S. toss that had no business running in the Alaskan Derby.

It\'s probably better if we agree to disagree.

sekrah · May 17, 2011, 10:29:02 PM

Flighted Iron..

Sway Away will be in my mix. I was disappointed when he didn\'t make the Derby gate, I thought he could have made some noise. This is a horse that has the distance breeding and nearly nailed The Factor (The Factor!!) at 7 furlongs (The Factor!!...... At 7 furlongs!!)

Gomez over P-Val is definently an upgrade. P-Val is atrocious in route races. SA may be coming back to a big effort.

big18741 · May 18, 2011, 05:45:33 AM

Or maybe Sway Away is a just a really good off the pace seven furlong horse.

Flighted Iron · May 18, 2011, 12:19:38 PM

Considering your derby comments I was hoping you\'d say \"if SA wins the Preakness I\'ll re-retire.

Can\'t wait to see sheets.Good luck!