Sheets to the Wind

[djr2000]

What happened with the sheets this weekend.  The oaks winner was dismissed with a definitive bounce pattern and the the derby winner never got so much as a mention and toss out because of no dirt experience.  I lost both days so I am just ranting .  Anybody hit this weekend ? Tell us how you incorporated the sheets .  I\'m a glutton for punishment . Probably try again in the Preakness.

[JR]

Use the numbers. Toss the analysis.

[shanahan]

I learn that lesson about 4 times a year...touche.

[FrankD.]

Stop the whining !!!

The only one of the above who posted a selection was djr2000 and that was before the draw or the Derby day sheets were out ?

Try Lawton or The Wizard if you want someone to tell you who to bet ?

[number5858]

The TG sheets are not a panacea. They don\'t tell you things like trainer intent, whether the saddle will slip, etc. I do believe they give you the very best numbers out there. We have all watched members of this forum, TGJB and TGAB make some amazing calls. So what happened at CD with Animal Kingdom and the Oaks?

TGJB and company can\'t produce an audiovisual seminar that is accurate to the moment the race is run. No, it has to be produced as rapidly in advance as it can reasonably be. They have the same type of deadlines that the guys over at DRF do. Their articles and picks have to be fully written and ready for the publisher days before without knowing the weather or the scratches or the post time odds. You, the user, have to make those final adjustments. That being said, here are the adjustments I made.

Master of Hounds - tossed him, even though this one scared me because until someone successfully makes that Dubai to CD move, I am not buying it. Looked terrible at the track before. I was using him before in tier 3 because you ignore that quality King Mambo / Sadler\'s Wells blood at your peril.

Animal Kingdom - took MOH\'s place in my tier three. Unfortunately, Nehro was also in my tier three and I didn\'t be any tier 3 with tier 3. If MMM finishes second, however, I score.

Midnight Interlude - moved up to tier 2 for me based on Baffert\'s hot hand. Previously, I had MI in tier 3 because of the lack of a 2 year old base.

Pants on Fire - moved down from tier 1 due to the unreasonable odds. You don\'t get to score very often without taking a chance. Loved POF at the 20-1 to 30-1 I thought I was going to get, not nearly as much at 7-1. Totally overlooked the Rosie factor as well as the MOH for lovers of dogs angles as well as the Derby Kitten for cat lovers angle. BTW, I thought Rosie rode this horse very well.

The TG sheets can\'t tell you racing luck. I wonder what the result would have been had it rained? AK won because he was ridden well by a Hall of Fame jockey, was well prepared by an excellent trainer in Graham Motion, had a good PP draw, and had good racing luck. AK earned the victory. Many people try to take a turfer and run them on the dirt. Very few accomplish it. AK and his connections did. It is a rare thing.

[Footlick]

Master of Hounds is more of a grinder in Europe and probably in the second tier of gr1 three year olds in Europe, still a top horse but others are better.  I discounted the reports about him looking bad on the track.  His lad said he was good, and they know the horse, we don\'t, so it could be he looks like that usually.  Don\'t remember how he looked at the BC.  O\'Brien has no problem scratching a horse if they aren\'t right, so if he was running I figured he was good.  Gomez got caught a little too far back imo, especially with a soft pace.  He sort of admitted it in the post race interview, but said he really liked the horse alot.  Master of Hounds started closing in the stretch and then looked like a half back trying to find a hole until Gomez jerked him over to the rail.  Finished with good energy.  Gomez said he is looking forward to riding him in the Belmont and thought his first ever dirt race was very good.  You are right about Dubai preps for the Derby.  Very iffy.  And it is rough to go from Tapeta to dirt, no correlation whatsoever.  But, O\'Brien really thinks the horse fits the US racing program.  Of course he is loaded for bear as usual in Europe so he can afford to have a US raider.  He doesn\'t really need Master of Hounds for the Euro classics or any of the WFA older races.  All in all, even though I was hoping for top 3, I thought it was a strong showing by him and am looking forward to seeing him in the Belmont as long as he is in form.

[miff]

The sheets don\'t interpret for you,thats an individual thing. Rough day,no doubt but there were a couple of very nice spots that stood up.

Thought the the last TG fig on Regally Ready was very ugly, given that last performance in Cali and confirmed by yesterdays nice win.


Mike