Working out trips

[Ill-bred]

Agree that the rail draw was horrific for AAA\'s energy distribution.

Before the draw, he was the horse most likely to hit the board imho. Now he needs to get lucky.

[Lost Cause]

lots of ifs for me but good luck guys.  If he was a drop back closer I would give him a better chance but he seems like he has some early speed, which will keep him a little closer to the horses that are going to drop over on top of him probably forcing a check and then probably a check again behind the second tier that drops over after that.  In the end who knows what happens but i\'m just not willing to take the chance on him working out a good trip from there.  With that being said I still can\'t figure out who I like.  

Starting to move over to Stay Thirsty, who should be in the second tier, probably on the rail, Terrible race with the blinks on in the FL Derby, which they remove for this race.  Treating his Gotham as a conditioner race off the layoff.  So i\'m going with the old third race off the layoff angle.  I also think he might have gotten hurt a little in the Hopeful when he stumbled at the break and they gave him a two month break into the BC where he probably wasn\'t 100% also.  I\'m not a big fan of his Jock but a lot of people here seems to think he\'s great so what do I know.  That\'s a lot of If\'s for my pick also but I should be able to get at least 25/1 on him especially if Mo is in as the forgotten stablemate..

[PonyBologna]

No one has mentioned this yet but what if, as many think is a greater than 50-50 proposition, Uncle Mo scratches and the field moves out by 1, leaving AAA in Gate 2?  He still has 18 other horses to his outside but isn\'t pointed straight into the rail anymore.

[Lost Cause]

PonyBologna Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No one has mentioned this yet but what if, as many
> think is a greater than 50-50 proposition, Uncle
> Mo scratches and the field moves out by 1, leaving
> AAA in Gate 2?  He still has 18 other horses to
> his outside but isn\'t pointed straight into the
> rail anymore.


Not sure on the rules but I would think they would move the outside horses in 1 position.

[PonyBologna]

I believe you are correct, think I\'m wrong in my assumption (wishful thinking) that AAA would move off the rail.  Thanks.

[miff]

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Things appeared to be going swimmingly for Archarcharch and his connections in the three weeks since their 3-year-old won the Arkansas Derby.

Then came Wednesday's post position draw for Saturday's Kentucky Derby where Archarcharch wound up in post position 1 in the 20-horse field. While the rail has produced 12 Kentucky Derby winners in the race's 136-year history, the last to win from there was Ferdinand in 1986. The last horse to finish in the top three from post 1 was Risen Star in 1988. Limehouse (2004) and Jazil (2006) finished fourth breaking from the rail.

"Not a good place to be," said trainer William "Jinks" Fires, who has waited nearly 50 years to get a horse good enough to run in the Kentucky Derby. "I've never liked the one hole, but you got to do what you got to do."

Fires said he would have preferred to have drawn posts 7 through 11. Post 6 was the second-to-last spot to be assigned and that went to Comma to the Top, who figures to be one of the speed horses in the race. Fires said drawing the rail could force jockey Jon Court to have to use his horse early.

"We'd like to lay just off the pace and with the one-hole if you don't go with them a ways you'll get shuffled way back," Fires said.

Archarcharch was assigned odds of 10-1 on the Churchill Downs morning line, making him the co-fourth choice along with Midnight Interlude, who will break from post 15, the first slot in the auxiliary gate. Though downtrodden with the draw, Fires remains confident in his horse.

"He's been training very well and he's good in the gates," Fires said. "He's never been an unruly horse in the gate. I feel like he'll settle in there okay. Hopefully, we can get out and get a good position and sit there and go when

[MO]

Greetings. A few years ago when Came Home was my pick, I distinctly recall him being assigned post 15. There was a late scratch from the main gate, and he was supposed to be moved to post 14, but they decided to leave him out there and move all the horses in the main gait out one post so that the horse who had the rail now had post 2.

But Uncle MO is in the aux gate, so if he scratches, I think Arch is still going to be in post 1 as Nehro and the #20 will move in 1 slot.

And don\'t forget, no matter if Arch gets the 1 or 2 hole, he will be standing in the gate longer than every other horse, probably a good 45-60 seconds.

[magicnight]

But, Mark. That was during a year when trainers/owners CHOSE those specific slots. It would not have been fair to move them, especially a horse in 14 or 15 that might have been placed there because of the gap between the gates (and the extra room provided). Since it was a random process this year, they might move them out, rather than in, if there is a scratch.

Either way, it would be nice to know in advance what the plan is.

[toppled]

I loved AAA before the draw.  So after a restless night, I looked up the last 23 years of charts, going back to the year Ferdinand ran from the 1 post.  I came to the conclusion that of the 20 full or near full fields, the 1 horse was compromised 20% of the time.  That means 80% of the time, the rail did not have a detrimental effect on the horse who came out of there.  Considering how we look at percentages in this game and positive percentages in the 20% range (80% failure rate) are considered a good thing, I\'m back with AAA still as my top choice.  

I think that the fact that it hurt LAL last year, it is being blown out of proportion when looking at this year\'s Derby.  

I think Jerry summed it up quite nicely with his statement about being on the rail in his Derby analysis.  I ain\'t telling what he wrote (or I assume, said in the seminar) but I think truer words were never spoken.

[sekrah]

Agreed numbers, I don\'t think it\'s the end of the world for Arch.

I rate his early speed a notch better than Brilliant Speed and Twice The Appeal.  Stay Thirsty will go.  He could tuck in nicely in one of the middle tiers.

Check out the \"Super Hi Fives\" over the past few years:

2010 - 4-2-10-9-3
2009 - 8-16-2-7-11
2008 - 20-5-16-2-18
2007 - 7-8-2-5-1
2006 - 8-13-2-18-1

[sekrah]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I loved AAA before the draw.  So after a restless
> night, I looked up the last 23 years of charts,
> going back to the year Ferdinand ran from the 1
> post.  I came to the conclusion that of the 20
> full or near full fields, the 1 horse was
> compromised 20% of the time.  That means 80% of
> the time, the rail did not have a detrimental
> effect on the horse who came out of there.


Good stuff toppled.  I bet if you looked even deeper and study every post position that they are all compromised 10-20% of the time in a 20 horse field.

I don\'t get these trainers that want drawn outside.  4-8 have proven to be the money holes, and plenty of horses have run well from 2 & 3.

[Michael D.]

tough draw for AAA. Court rated the colt to perfection in the Ark Derby, paving the way for the fast fig. he\'ll have his hand forced here.

Midnight Interlude drew well with 15. has the space to his left, speedball Shack in the 14 hole, and closer AK in 16. MI should break into a comfortable stride. has enough tactical speed to get 3w or so, and should get the distance with the long winded pedigree on the dam side and sharp conditioner in his corner. one of the few that could run a new top. MI looks pretty good here.

[jbelfior]

I agree.

Using MI with ST and AK. He has what I usually look for in a Derby contender. Nice wins at a mile. Bred for miler speed on the male side with class and stamina on the dam side.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[big18741]

I\'m tossing AAA,Soldat and Nehro right or wrong.

AAA is the worst kind of horse for that 1 hole-not a drop out the back closer or an absolute gasser.I\'ll play against Court working out a trip.

Soldat gets parked out wide.

Nehro loses ground-I have no faith in Nakatani to work a ground saving trip dropping out of it.Gotta hit the brakes and make a left hand turn leaving the gate.

I\'m with Sekrah on Pants on Fire.Using Shackleford and MMM underneath-will need one of them to hit the board.

[MO]

DRF reporting that Nehro and Watch Me Go will move over one leaving stall 20 empty and Arch stuck in the 1 hole.