GP Sat - 5-star, lead pipe lock cinches of the century

[dodie]

FWIW
after scratches
R1 Wide Open Values/fair odds look to be Moose Man at 9/2, Follia 6/1 Livin Large, 6/1

**R2 Depeche Chat @ 2/1 is a Best Bet exacta with Shankopotamus; I\'m gonna single Depeche in Doubles with the 2 bst overlays in the first; also single him in my P3\'s and 4\'s.  Aldomear is a bet against as 5/2 ML in this race.

[dodie]

R3 Scratch of Evangelical makes Holiday Flare very tough, but an underlay at probable even money.  Let\'s get fiscal @ 4/1 or neat lightning @ 4/1 might be worth a shot, with let\'s get fiscal pairing his 2yo first out in his last out, may be the real value here, esp given his stalking skills.

R4 R Gyspsy no value, likely winning fave.  Spoof and My other girl 10/1 MLs might make the exta worth playing, but skipping is the best option here.

[dodie]

R5 Hibaayeb legit fave, bay to bay legit 2nd choice; Box in an exta, i guess, if you have to.  None of the other 4 would be a surprise to get in the exta, so don\'t go overboard.

R6  Wet one is value at 6/1, as is Alpha Centauri at 7/2 and Seauxbelle, Purple Trillium, and Joyce, in that order, would not surprise ITM amoung the FTS.  I do think Hungry Island is an underlay at 5/1 ML.  I don\'t think you\'ll get 8/1 on Mott\'s 3rd time starter Rockettes Escapade, but she\'ll also be interesting if you get9/2 on her, which still might be a stretch.  So how do you play this one?   Wet one, Alpha, Rockettes:  which ever offers the betting line value, I guess.

[dodie]

R7  Sorry to see Racing Aptitude scratch, as he was and underlay @ 5/1 ML, as is still in Derby Kitten @ 6/1.  Long hunter is value at 8/5, One Cool Dude @ 3/1, and Leave of Absence at 9/2.  Uncle Otto and Storm Cat in the 3/4 slots.

**R8  Favorites only win 18% at this class and Dis according to BRIS, FWIW . . .Betting line
*Savvy Supreme at 5/2 She\'ll be a prime bet if I get fair odds
Heir to Dare at 4/1  (gonna toss herout as probable fave in my multi race bets)
Air Guitar @ 6/1
Grace on Tour @ 6/1
With the Current @ 9/1
Marblehead harbor @ 12/1

[dodie]

**R9  Blue Angel is and underlay at 3/1 ML, with Dream to Dream value at 10/1, Moving Heart value at 5/1, and La Cloche value at 6/1, if you can get it.  I also think Embur\'s Song is an UNDERLAY at 5/1 ML as is Gitchee Goomie at 4/1 ML.

R10  Fair Odds:
Unrivaled Belle at 7/5
Awesome Maria @ 9/5
Dubai Dancer @ 5/1

[dodie]

R11  R Heat Lightning @ 7/5
     It\'s Tricky @ 9/5
     Kindersley @ 8/1  (VALUE LS play, thought top two look tough)
     Island School @ 7/1

R12  
Morning Sideheights  5/2
Roadtrack\'s dream  7/2
Gators track  9/2
It\'s not for love 5/1
Run Jamcains run 8/1

[P-Dub]

Good Grief, what was the point of these posts??

[sekrah]

Wow..  Someone comes in to post HORSE RACING PICKS on a HANDICAPPING FORUM (what a novel concept) and the old guard decides that he crossed the line and pisses all over a member of our armed forces.  Classic P-Dub.  Makes 1 post every 3 weeks and it always involves ripping someone.

[TGJB]

Okay, guys. Enough of the personal stuff.

[dodie]

Sorry all . . .

[HP]

Good posts Dodie.  I played a few of these late races...Longhunter...Savvy Supreme...a nice stretch of chalk country and no hookups under.  Hopefully you made something out of Purple Trillium...  HP

[sekrah]

Yea Purple Trillium cost me.   I was very heavy on Hungry Island.  These first time starters have been killing me lately.

[dodie]

thanks, HP.  Had a $160 P3 saver.  Not a good day at the windows.  On the interesting note, however, I compared my analysis with the redboard TG analysis, and it\'s heartening (to a degree) that I saw many races the way Alan (or whoever did the analysis) did.  We were both right about Morningside heights in the last, tnks to a little DQ help, both got a terrrible trip/ride with the bugboy on Wetone, were both wrong with Mooseboy and Dreamed to dream.