ROTW

[toppled]

I\'m going to give #9 Nathan\'s H Q the nod for the following reasons:
1) He\'s the lone speed-look at the race shape, he figures to have a big lead from the start & will be playing catch me if you can, which can be very dangerous at Gulfstream.
2) The interesting workouts-after his last race his trainer has put some stamina works into him a 7f work on 3/13 followed by a mile work on 3/20.  This gives me more encouragement that after he gets the lead, he won\'t quit.  
3) Even though he didn\'t develop from 2 to 3, he did run a new top 1st off the 4 month layoff as a 4yo.  Looking at the sire profile TGIs the Yonaguskas are still developing as they get older.  I\'m giving him the benefit of the doubt that there is more development to come off that new top and he can run faster, which he\'ll have to do, on Sunday.
At 10-1 ML he figures to go off at a good price.  Unfortunately, that can\'t be said for Safe Trip, who while also 10-1 ML is being picked everywhere.  He\'s picked here, on BRIS and is the DRF\'s top pick.  The value just won\'t be there for Safe Trip on Sunday.  
By the way, as Jerry pointed out in his analysis, D\'Funnybone is scratching.  He stepped on a stone this week, but may run next weekend-Dutrow was interviewed on Capital OTB earlier today.

One other thing I\'m going to try to do is combine this pick with the 7th, where I like #2 Mobilizer to run well 1st off the layoff & 1st turf.  He\'s been working like a monster on turf & had to scratch twice so he could get a firm turf race.

[touchgold]

I agree. Sprinting is this guys game. He seems most likley to run his race. Others are off efforts, or maybe prefer routes. I am using the 9 along with the rotw pick.

[sekrah]

Agree that this looks like Nathan HQ is a very good value play and this is a good looking spot for Safe Trip.   NHQ will definently be on my tickets.

Another one I\'d consider here is Our Edge.  This horse is bugging me.  Is he using this as a stepping stone for a route race coming up?  I think Zito might be re-aiming him towards sprints after his blistering fractions at Belmont back in October (44.2/109).

He brought him back to Gulfstream on Jan 15th in the G3 Mr Prospector, broke poorly and was buried by Big Drama and Custom For Carlos, but they are elite sprinters who got away with soft pretty soft fractions for GP.

Zito is a sneaky SOB and I wouldn\'t rule out this one being live.  He\'s from the first crop of The Cliff\'s Edge and that group has been rocking the house so far this winter/spring with late 4-year old/early 5 year olds development.

[Lost Cause]

ROTW horse opened at 2/1...massive underlay IMO...i\'m out of this one..

[drbillym]

Perhaps being the TG ROTW has had a lot of influence, but I posted a few weeks ago about Chad Brown\'s betting patterns.  Especially when owners are Gary and Mary West.  When CB has a horse 10-1 or higher in the morning line, and the P3 will pay is the lowest on the board, look out.  In this race, even tho Capt Candyman is getting all the early money, and is only 3-1 M/L, Safe Trip has the lowest P3.  I would also watch the P3,4,5,and 6 payouts on Brown\'s horse in the finale.

[Lost Cause]

I actually just saw that and I was sayong didn\'t somebody write that on TG?

Thanks for the info.  He should drift up..

[drbillym]

Nice call on Mobilizer, toppled.  Thx.