Some thoughts on the BIG CAP

[Dana666]

A few thoughts:

1-Soul Candy: I would be surprised if he were able to rally like he usually does and make any significant impact on this race.

2-Spurier: Always tries, but I think a minor award might be it for this guy; he too will need to worry about traffic problems; usually runs against small fields so he can utilize his late kick, not sure what\'s going to happen here?

3-Gladding: Really terrific looking gelding, lots to like about this guy. He is going to need a great ride here though. I\'m not sure if they will send him or try to stalk the pace today? I think he\'s cut out to be a nice horse. Wouldn\'t surprise me if he won this.

4-Pode: I think he\'s over-matched.

5-Twirling Candy: I can understand why some will take a stand against him, but he will have to bounce to lose this, pure and simple. Talent wise, he\'s in another universe compared with these other horses. You might look back and say even money was a gift!

6-Setsuko: I once thought he had potential; I\'m off his bandwagon.

7-Quindici Man: I think he is in too deep.

8-First Dude: Maybe I\'m wrong, but I think he is the most over-hyped wise guy horse I\'ve seen in a LONG time. EVERYBODY I talked to LOVES him. I think he\'s a ploddy beast. I will say Kent D. rode him horribly in his last, but you fans of the dude better hope he\'s in front turning for home b/c he isn\'t going to pass anybody -- ever!

9-Tweebster: Nice horse is probably in deep but at least his running style keeps him out of trouble -- always tries.

10- Aggie Engineer: Another hard-trying sort, he will give you his all. Is it enough?

11-Game on Dude: I\'d be more interested in this Dude than the other Dude. Looks like he may have some upside, and his last race was pretty good in my opinion. I wonder why Baffert didn\'t name P-Val to replace JR? P-Val has no mount in this race. I don\'t see the logic in putting Chantall up unless for PR reasons on the big day. Maybe they think she will get him to relax which he needs to do. Still, that decisions mystifies me, but he\'s a legit longshot for all the marbles, I think.

BOTTOM LINE: It\'s Candy\'s race to win or lose. I would have thought he had to bounce badly after the Malibu; not only did he not bounce, he looked stronger (albeit against a weak field). In a perfect world, you would want to give a horse like this more spacing, and I understand the price is not attractive in a big field, so take a shot against him if you\'re so inclined. If you\'re right, you\'ll get paid well. I can\'t bet by hoping the best horse by far is going to fall down (please no lectures on finding value). I don\'t like First Dude at all. My guess is I won\'t bet much in the race either way. Good luck to all.

[shanahan]

Just an add on to Big Cap day...FYI Baffert wins 88% of the races where he has 2 entries.  He has several today, and yes...it\'s true the longer horse wins a good deal of the time.

[Ill-bred]

I too like the \"other\" dude to hit the board.

Dana, you and I are on the same page here.

I\'m keying Game on Dude under Twirling Candy in ex/tri.

[sekrah]

Give me all you can eat of Setsuko here.

3yo developmental gap missing from last years injury is about to get filled.   Sire booms out 4 year olds.   Super looking workout last week.  Looking better than he ever has.

I give him an extremely good chance (40%+) of running a new top today. Running a 0 with 10 pounds on Candy puts him in the winners circle.   If he gets the trip, he\'s as good as they get at 30-1.


Don\'t care for First Dude either.  I don\'t think he\'s right.   Agree that Game On Dude also looks good.

[Michael D.]

Soul Candy - Gomez should get the ideal trip saving ground from the back behind a fast pace. gets in at 114 lbs. liked the Hol cushion and a new top 1st time dirt isn\'t impossible. taking a deep closer in the first Big Cap run over the SA Highway might not make a ton of sense, but the race shape fits and the price will be big.

Quite possible that one of the speedy ones puts up an insane number over the quick strip, but I\'ll key Gomez and SC at a price.

Good luck Dana. nice rundown.

[big18741]

Agree on Soul Candy to pick up the pieces.

Birdonthewire should do dirt.Marty Wolfson had one that won the Sunshine Millions Classic a couple years back Birdsomething?Worth a shot at the price and the pace should be there with First Dude on the engine.

[SoCalMan2]

Looks like I am the only guy here who loves First Dude. I am totally licking my chops to bet him today.

When I look at FD\'s sheet -- I see a horse that has already run three negative numbers on the dirt at 2 turns.  Those races were 1 and 1/8, 1 and 3/16, and 1 and 1/4.  He was also in negative territory already by May of his 3 year old year.  I look at his Belmont and Monmouth races as logical reaction to that May figure. His Travers and PA Derby races are both strong efforts.  I completely ignore the bad rail BC Classic.  Simply pretend the race is not there.  Normal 4 year olds improve off their 3 yo form. Yes, his first effort was an off effort, but that happens, fortunately for me, I was not betting that day....to me, he is really sitting on a big forward move and it is time.  There is no question whatsoever this horse runs a new top today (of course anything can happen in horseracing, but if this horse runs his race it is going to be a new top today).  On top of running a new top, he is receiving 6 pounds from TC and the distance here works to FD\'s advantage not TC\'s.  To me, if you give First Dude a minus 1 (and he can run better, I feel that is a modest top -- there are reasons to think he can do more), then TC needs to run a -2 assuming neutral trips just to pull even to First Dude.

When I look at TC\'s sheet, he is not bad, but he is not as well established as people are making out.  He has run two turns on the dirt only once.  That figure while a new top for him is not better than any of FD\'s three best races. Now TC has to stretch out in distance and step forward to make a new top again.  Might he, yes. Is it likely, I think it is less likely he runs a new top than he doesn\'t.  There are even reasons to think there is a chance that TC bounces today (although I do not plan to get fancy today -- my action is all First Dude to win -- with odds like that, you don\'t need anything else and I don\'t like getting fancy if I don\'t have to).

A race like this is what I live for in horseracing -- a race with an odds on favorite that is not the most likely winner in the race.  Also, I think it is clear why there is such an odds discrepancy. TC is 6 for 7 and FD is 1 for 13.  The great unwashed look at that above all else.  Sometimes when you see a distortion in the odds, you wonder if people out there might have better information than you and maybe you are missing something important which explains the odds discrepancy.  Today, I feel reasonably confident that is not the case.

Realize I am in the minority here (and it wont be the first time I go down in flames), but I really feel this race is a rare opportunity.

[Lost Cause]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Give me all you can eat of Setsuko here.
>
> 3yo developmental gap missing from last years
> injury is about to get filled.   Sire booms out 4
> year olds.   Super looking workout last week.
> Looking better than he ever has.
>
> I give him an extremely good chance (40%+) of
> running a new top today. Running a 0 with 10
> pounds on Candy puts him in the winners circle.  
> If he gets the trip, he\'s as good as they get at
> 30-1.
>
>
Holy Crap dude..Hiope you don\'t get screwed here..GOOD LUCK!!!
> Don\'t care for First Dude either.  I don\'t think
> he\'s right.   Agree that Game On Dude also looks
> good.

[TreadHead]

Feel for you buddy, I think you got robbed there.  Plus Setsuko was so much the best horse and just got such an awful trip.  Since you mentioned Game On Dude, hopefully you had him boxed or something, but I know it killed my (what would have been very lucrative) pick 3 and pick 4 hopes.

[Michael D.]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Give me all you can eat of Setsuko here.
>
> 3yo developmental gap missing from last years
> injury is about to get filled.   Sire booms out 4
> year olds.   Super looking workout last week.
> Looking better than he ever has.
>
> I give him an extremely good chance (40%+) of
> running a new top today. Running a 0 with 10
> pounds on Candy puts him in the winners circle.  
> If he gets the trip, he\'s as good as they get at
> 30-1.
>
>
> Don\'t care for First Dude either.  I don\'t think
> he\'s right.   Agree that Game On Dude also looks
> good.


great handicapping, sekrah.

[Lost Cause]

COngrats to  all of you guys who picked Game on Dude..
Special congrats to Sekrah who pretty much gave out the exacta box.
Please tell me you\'re too busy counting money to reply..

[big18741]

Tremendous call by Sekrah on the exacta horses.

Great training jobs by Baffert and Mandella both pointing to a target off a long break.

Thought the stewards call was fair.TC initiated and out of horse.Setsuko had his head out in front in deep stretch with every chance to win and Game on Dude battled back to nail him.

[sekrah]

Thanks guys.  Made a little over 19x my wagers.   Probably 45-50x if the photo goes the other way.  Thats racing though.