Some thoughts on Opening Day Card at SA.

[Dana666]

Hopefully, the impending blizzard will hold off long enough for us east coast folks at least to get money in our accounts and get home to play what looks like a promising card at Santa Anita. If you\'re out west, God Bless you lucky people!

We\'ve got to watch for horses and sires who\'s offspring were hampered by the synthetic debacle -- two sires I\'ll tout are Swiss Yodeler and Malibu Moon. As good as Unusual Heat was in the synthetic era, Swiss Yodeler was terrible, but the fortunes may be reversed now. Swiss Emperor in the last race may wake up with a return to dirt though it is a cheap race, so I wouldn\'t get too excited -- I do think that horse hated the synthetic surfaces though, and  Malibu Pier in the La Brea should move way up on dirt, and I\'m hoping for a big performance out of her. I always thought she\'d love a seven furlong race, too. These things are hard to predict and certainly not good bets on the sheets because you are essentially betting slower horses, but as Dakota Phone showed in the BC, sometimes the price makes it worth it.

As far as the card goes, The Factor in Race Four was hampered by a terrible ride in his debut, and I would look for a strong effort though Asmussen\'s runner Houston Harbor looks rather formidable there.

I think Arresting Officer is a monster facing weak runners in Race Five.

In the co-feature, Race Eight, I\'m very high on Twirling Candy, and I like very much what Alcindor has shown me thus far. As far as the race of the week analyst\'s selection of Theskyhasnolimit, the only thing I worry about there is whether he\'ll be able to rally in this kind of race; I\'m thinking traffic may play a role there as well as a soft pace in the race.

Here are some thoughts in the pick six sequence:

Race Four
10-Houston Harbor: Big and fast and tipped hand in debut; very classy looker!
9-The Factor: Given a horrible ride in debut and does look like a sprinter to me – very live for Baffert.
1-Red Sharp Humor: Nice looker probably wants to go much longer, but has shown talent so far.

Race Five
9-Arresting Officer: Monstrous maiden win, so there's no telling what this guy may become. Meets a very suspect bunch here, too.

Race Six
The most wide open race of the day???
7-Mailbu Pier: I love Malibu Moon's on dirt!
3-Switch: Ran well enough for second in BC , so she has to be live in here, right?
9-Always a Princess: Is certainly capable in here and would not surprise me one bit.
11-Champagne D'Oro: Disappointed me greatly in BC, so I'm just not sure what's coming today; she had been super before that race.
5-La Nez: Couldn't have looked better in her return, so I wouldn't want to ignore her though I prefer others more.
13-Bonnie Blue Flag: Has run big on occasion; the "other" Baffert might be worth a look?
12-Arte Viva: Another up-and-comer whose best races are probably going to be at 2 turns.
1-Pica Slew: Has some speed, but I'm not yet convinced of her class.
4-Patriotic Viva: Biancone has been known to step his charges up in this kind of a race, but I'm not sold on her ability.


Race Seven
5-Sidney's Candy: Hard to fault his grass run at Del Mar! I will say I need to see how the course plays because it will be softened up some by all the rain; whether it will be kind to speed horses remains unclear at this point.
8-Make Music For Me: If closers have a shot, he's very live; always shown some class; he was almost on the outside rail in his comeback win!
3-Bogie: Another stout closer who could be any kind really – the break may have helped him, too.
4-Sebastian Flyte: Still has some upside for me, so I will consider this guy at least in exotics.
1-Blue Panis: A nice looking colt, but with all the speed in here, he seems up against it all.
6-Indian Firewater: Must contend with what should be a fast pace, and I'm not convinced his best races are at 2 turns though you could argue he may trip out as they say behind Sidney.

Race Eight
9-Twirling Candy: Runs well fresh and is too gorgeous to ignore; he should get a good stalking trip, too. I know Candy Ride's don't necessarily love dirt, but I always liked this guy.
2-Alcindor: Could be the main speed, and I can see him carrying that speed a long way in here; appears pretty formidable though he didn't beat much in his last facile score.
As far as the others:
4-Caracortado: Really looked super in his return, and I wouldn't be surprised if he were able to step forward even further, certainly not the worst long shot.
11-Smiling Tiger: Seemed fully extended in last few to me, and I'm not sure how much more upside there is to this guy, though you could argue he'll get a good trip.
5-Noble's Promise: You can't fault him too much though I don't think he beat much at Churchill.
7-Don Tito: Can run some, but I'm not sure how good that field was in Churchill; he has to prove he belongs at this level and distance.
1-Paris Vegas: Moves like a grass horse to me, and he will have to work out a trip as will
3-Theskyhasnolimit: He'll be negotiating a rally in here, and I'm not at all sure it is going to work out, though he has shown flashes of talent, I'm not big on closers in this type of race.



Race Nine
6-Gifted Student: Certainly the speed of this race, and he may get brave if for once left alone on the front end.
4-Swiss Empeor: May be live with return to dirt racing – poor Swiss Yodeler, his offspring hated synthetic all those years. Even fits on the sheets!
2-Breakmark: Has been raced into shape and should be in the mix with P-Val aboard. I can't say he cannot win this.
8-Forward Commitment: Huge, ploddy beast has had his chances; not on top from my point of view, but figures in your exotics for sure.
7-Johnnie Gold: May wind up getting a minor share as he has some ability to finish.
11-Wanna Chat: Small guy might do better at Los Al. Unless Mullins has the juice again, I can't see his speed holding here.
10-Our Last Monte: Works don't scream ready, but the barn is pretty good with first timers and lands Flores.
1-Golden Augusto: Is another with some ability to finish, so he may land on the board somewhere.

That\'s enough! Let\'s cash some tickets with the return of dirt racing to Southern California!

[sighthound]

Dana, you always give a good analysis of your thoughts out West!  Much appreciated.

Do you know what they did to the old synthetic base with the installation of the new dirt track?  I haven\'t been able to find any witnesses.  Did they take up the macadam, etc?  or simply scrape off the synthetic, then put the base/cushion dirt over the synthetic drainage system?  

If the latter, this track may be very, very hard and fast (although with all the rain, there is going to be some uneven settling, I\'m sure)