Citation Handicap Photo

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> I don\'t know about this \"group hug\" stuff from
> you, P-Dub.  I prefer you in attack mode.
>
> Ever notice Mike Smith goes wide alot and Zenyatta
> was a bit over-rated.....  
>
> Jim

Jim,

Large bark, small bite. I\'m just a very opinionated bastard.

...................And if you say one more thing about those 2, the muzzle comes off pal.

Dude, you made me laugh at the last line. Thanks for that.

I\'m sure I will find something in the near future to bitch about. 10 people will join in and JB will tell me to knock it off...again. I\'m trying to get through the end of the year.

[toppled]

I understand your desire to swing for the big score on the big days, but that\'s because your handicapping prowess is in tune with big races.  I learned something about myself that I was able to put to good use this year.  My best handicapping is of lightly raced horses and I need to remember that when I go for the big score.  I usually over bet the Derby and never quite get the big score because I usually cannot handicap the surrounding stakes races to take advantage of when I pick the Derby winner.  On a good Derby day I might win around $3,000, hardly the big score.  
Well this year I was waiting for a 2yo horse I spotted in his 1st start in a maiden race at Saratoga.  It took over 2 months for the trainer to get the perfect spot for him and although it was less than a week away from the Breeder\'s Cup, I decided to go all in on the day the horse I was waiting for ran.  If I lost, I would have to pretty much stay on the sidelines for Breeder\'s Cup, which isn\'t really my best handicapping situation anyway.
I got extremely lucky because that day was all 2yos, my specialty. I decided that that day was going to be the day that I played my horse like it was Derby day. I had a pretty good idea of what to do with my race and after I bought the Thorograph sheets for the day, the other races came into crystal clear focus.  I spread around a little, but hammered all my top picks with my horse.  When my horse won I had the score of a lifetime-over 5 times my previous best day. I hit all three p3s, the pick 4, the exacta, the triple and for $32 I even hit the pick 6.  
What I learned was that with my handicapping abilities of picking maidens, nw1s, and 2-3 yo stakes races, to go for a big score just because there\'s a big race, is for me, counterproductive.  The biggest thing I have to do is stay within the confines of the races I\'m best at selecting.  While it\'s nice to score big on a big day, for me, it\'s better to go for the big score with races that I\'m most comfortable playing, not the big name races.
I think that most horse players have a specialty.  Sure I win races that are out of my specialty, but it\'s a lot easier to have the big score if it\'s your specialty & within your comfort zone.  I\'ll always be more comfortable betting that 2yo or young 3yo maiden race than the 3yo and up stakes race.  
As long as one knows what he\'s best at, the big score is always possible, but one cannot spread himself too thin & end up with too light a bankroll on the day he really wants to hammer something.

[jack72906]

Thanks for the insight. Being one of the \"rookies\" on the board here I do a lot more reading than posting. At times it\'s better to just shut up and \"listen\" so to speak so I appreciate ALL of the comments...even the ones I don\'t agree with:).

I started taking the game seriously about 3 years ago. Read as many books as I could, watched DVDs, paper bet, etc. One common thread in every publication I read was that every player should have a specialty. Track every single dollar and every single bet and find out what you are good at.

For me it\'s turf route races and races with lightly run horses. My best plays this past year were the all turf P4s at Gulfstream. Yes I do hit other races, but over the past 3 years my biggest hits were in turf races at GP, Spa, and SA.

GP opener is January 5th.

[joekay]

Agree with a lot of what Jbelfior and Mjellish are saying.  Win a little,lose a little ... then BAM!  A few years ago for me it was BC St.Liam Pk 4 and this year it was the Shared Account SFA ....and every once awhile a small score like last Sat.\'s Pk 4 at Aqu.  I rarely have a \"main idea\"  or \"main opinion\".  I\'m looking for value and trying to win a lot betting a little.  Many times you can\'t forecast the \"value\" coming up before the race, so you\'ll never see me posting my picks on this site before the races.  I\'ve got a separate bankroll and my usual bet is less than 1%.. I\'m not comfortable losing anything bigger, so I\'ve adapted a style that allows me to enjoy the spectacle and intellectual challenge of racing without becoming too miserable over bad days or bad beats because I\'m betting so little.  And yes, there are days when I regret I didn\'t bet more, but I balance that with the money saved if I had bet more on the losing days. Keep swinging.

[shanahan]

OK, time to weigh in...good thoughts all and as horse players we seem to love a bit of misery - they made a movie or two on this subject, no?

I view it this way - $200 is a good round of golf, or a good seat to a NHL game, or a restaurant bill with the wife (we like the wine list)...so if I\'m down $200 end of day, it happens.  If I win, well, I never left the ballpark, or the restaurant , or the arena with more than I came with.  That\'s the beauty of it.

And that, my friends, is why I LOVE the horse player in all of us!  this is really a great board, and I like to read all the posts, but let\'s not get too serious thinking the next BIG THING is around the corner.  Best to you all, and thanks to many of you for the astute comments this past year.  I appreciate it.  It\'s a great release from the real world.

[plasticman]

Sorry Joe, that\'s a tough beat, i needed The 10 horse (P Val) to hold on for 4th to hit the super and got nailed by the favorite who was in a coma for 99/100ths of the race, he beat me on the wire for a nice chunk.