BIG-TIME Work for Zenyatta!!!

[sekrah]

Zenyatta\'s true odds are somewhere between 10-1 and 15-1 against this field, IMO.

[miff]

\"Zenyatta\'s true odds are somewhere between 10-1 and 15-1 against this field, IMO\"

Sek,

How much are you willing to book at those prices??

Mike

[sekrah]

Why would I book a horse at its true odds?   Anyway, I\'m don\'t make wagers with random strangers over the internet.   Just not my thing.  Anyway, I could combo bet my top 7 horses and likely do much better than -1500.

Anywhere here\'s my odds board for the Classic based on my number crunching calculation/formula


Dakota Phone 99-1
Crown of Thomas 99-1
Pleasant Prince 99-1
Paddy O Prado 65-1
Espoir City 32-1
Morning Line 32-1
First Dude 21-1
Zenyatta 15-1
Lookin At Lucky 15-1
Etched 12-1
Musket Man 10-1
Haynesfield 8-1
Blame 7-1
Fly Down 7-1
Quality Road 3-1

[mjellish]

Bummer,

Looks like you will be passing the race as nearly every horse will be an underlay for you other than Quality Road.  Or are you all in on that one?

[sekrah]

QR, Fly Down, and Musket Man will not be underlays with my odds..   Etched might creep above 15-1 too.

[mjellish]

If you like any one of those then I guess you are right. They all look too slow to me unless Fly Down can run back to his Travers#.  He was my bet in the Belmont and it looks like either the 1 1/2 or the big effort in the Dwyer got him.  He then got rest, came back to pair his top, made another big forward move in the Travers and then regressed off that in his last.  The regression was pretty easy to see coming, especially considering it was a pretty big number and he bore in.  Now he gets 5 weeks and should have a pace to run at, so I suppose it\'s a possibility that he could run back.  Will need to get the trip though in my opinion if he is going to take down some of these older horses, and his closing kick isn\'t as good as some of the others.  Plus he\'s already developed alot from where he started, so I think a repeat of that big number is very unlikely.  

Given all of that I would make fair odds on him closer to 15-1, but that\'s just me.  

Based on your line I would prefer Haynesfield, who looks much more interesting if you don\'t think he will go too fast early.

I also think fair odds on Blame are about 4-1, which is about half your line.  He had no chance to run down Haynesfield after that one cleared and got to lay down more or less methodical 24 and change splits in their last, and Blame still kicked on down the lane better than Fly Down.