ROTW - Pacific Classic

[nyc1347]

lets run em dooooooown!

1 - Battle of Hastings -  ran a nice effort last out running on the poly for the first time.. but has never been able to pair or get to a new top next out after tops like these .. what makes us think he will pair or get thru today?  Doesnt make too much sense to expect that! So Id expect a minimum backwards move here.

2 -  Isle of Giants -  will most likely set the pace but is just too slow to be with these.  His best effort is not good enough.

3 - Dakota Phone -  career top in last.. had a new career top earlier this year and reacted a couple points.  The 2s last year were ok for this horse to pair up but the 1 has shown a reaction.. so a 0 should do the same.

4 - Temple City - very consistent but no value..  a use underneath at best.

5 -  Unusual Suspect - too slow and no reason to expect a random multiple jump here that would compete with these.

6 - Richards Kid - baffert ice cold and this one is running consistent but nothing worse or better.  Why expect anything else at this point?  A top would be random with this consistent year and no value anyway.  Still fast enough to be there though so a use underneath.

7 - Hold Me Back -  took 10 months or so to get from a 0 back to a 0.. just ran it and has nowhere near that kind of rest so id expect an off effort here.

8 - Crowded House -  ok heres the play..  has proved to love the poly with this years efforts.  Went backwards from the first poly top all the way to a 9 but those were run on the turf.  shipped out here across seas to delmar and WITH 1st time lasix BUT no rest.. still managed to finally show life with the lasix.  Comes back with PLENTY of rest now on to a surface he loves.  Getting settled now the last several weeks and should fire here great.  WITHOUT lasix he ran a 2 effort!.. WITH lasix cant we say that he will run a new top here?  Has the rest, the preferred surface, 20-1 ML odds, and has shown new life with no rest on turf(a lesser preferred surface).  A new top is completely within reason and I think this is a great play imo. Also has a turf to poly angle which has been working really well for horses this meet!

9 -  Awesome Gem -  ran a new top as a 7 year old a few races back and i cant imagine that not weighing in on future figures.  Has reacted since and no reason to think that will stop.. il pass.

10 - The Usual QT -  trainer said on TVG that they will send this one out since the straight away to the first turn is pretty long.  Will be in the mix and has more than the capability to fire a nice race.  Odds suck but expect him to be there somewhere late.

IMO Crowded House has all the signs of a horse that will fire a great race here.  The odds are there and I cant turn down those win odds so I will be in for a WPS and take a stab with the Pick 3s, 4s and rolling doubles.  

Top 4 for me here are:

1. Crowded House
2. Richards Kid
3.  The Usual QT
4. Dakota Phone

Good Luck everyone!

[nyc1347]

=D MONSTER DAY!!!

[MonmouthGuy]

Maybe I read it wrong, but your post called Richard\'s Kid \"a use underneath.\"

[Rick B.]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> =D MONSTER DAY!!!

Just a hint: even if you do post in advance, it\'s still considered bad form to come out and toot your own horn.

Think (and be guided by) modesty and humility, and you will be accepted here, over time.

Not to lecture you, or anyone for that matter...it\'s just part of being a good \'net citizen (I hate the word \"netizen\").

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> nyc1347 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > =D MONSTER DAY!!!
>
> Just a hint: even if you do post in advance, it\'s
> still considered bad form to come out and toot
> your own horn.
>
> Think (and be guided by) modesty and humility, and
> you will be accepted here, over time.
>
> Not to lecture you, or anyone for that
> matter...it\'s just part of being a good \'net
> citizen (I hate the word \"netizen\").


He takes a lot of crap around here, if he wants to celebrate a race he posted about pre-race whats the harm??

He certainly isn\'t the only one thats ever done it, why single him out??

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

He gets a lot of shit, because he deserves it.

I would not crow on the board if I went 1 for 11 in show bets at Saratoga (posted today).

Then said I would use the winner of the Pacific Classic \"underneath\".  Granted, nice call on the key horse and that was nice handicapping.  But in light of the 1 for 11 on the balance, not sure I would be crowing.

Michael D apparently went 1-2 in the Pacific Classic.  Very \"crowable\".......

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He takes a lot of crap around here, if he wants to
> celebrate a race he posted about pre-race whats
> the harm??

There are alot of sharp people here who let their picks do the talking. That\'s the best way to behave, don\'t you think?

>He certainly isn\'t the only one thats ever done it, why single him out??

Because he does it pretty regularly, FAR more than anyone else. It gets tiresome after awhile.

I\'m sure he\'s a good guy. My suggestions were offered as such. Suggest we leave it at that.

[nyc1347]

sorry guys.. i was really excited about that pacific classic race.  i had a massive show on CH and i went up and down with the horses i selected with the exacta and trifecta.. i was doing it the whole day so i figured i go:

exacta CH with others then others with CH since he was awesome value

and then i did a tri:  CH with others with others and than others with CH with others.

I was going to do a place wager but i figure the show and place would be right there with price and if he got third it would give me the insurance for the wagers i placed.. plus the show was a minimum of triple the money so it was good enough.. it worked out and everything came out so it was a great day overall. i apologize again and il stop w the crowing in the future.

[Ill-bred]

\"6 - Richards Kid - baffert ice cold and this one is running consistent but nothing worse or better. Why expect anything else at this point? A top would be random with this consistent year and no value anyway. Still fast enough to be there though so a use underneath.\"

NYC said the 4-to-1 winner was no value, a reluctant use underneath.

This is a losing analysis from an exotics perspective. A long shot key underneath is meaningless if you didn\'t play the winner on top. Such is the life of an exotic player...It\'s enough to drive a horse player mad! And/or turn him into a show bettor.