shoulc rachel face z in the vanity??

[miff]

Over a 3 month comparative study,they differed by more than the value 2 points 18% of the time.Strangely on \"big\" races they only differed 9% of the time.

Variant was the main culprit in the differences,not ground loss.


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Thank you. Where does Beyer fit in that stat?

[Rich Curtis]

Here\'s where I\'m going with this, Miff:

  Two sheet points is a serious difference. Look at results charts and start playing around with two sheet points worth of difference and you will be rewriting the hell out of the results.

  Take TG, Rags, and Beyer. What % of the time will all three of them agree on the numbers?

  If all three of them do not agree, at least one of them is necessarily wrong.

  And if all three of them do in fact agree, we still do not have anything like a guarantee of three-way accuracy. All we have is a prerequisite for it.

[jimbo66]

MJ,

Take a closer look at Zardana\'s sheet.

Do you really think her win over Rachel and the associated figure, \"falls right in line\" with her other figures?  (a five point top or something of that order)

[TreadHead]

What sort of \"line\" could Zardana possibly have?  She finshed just ahead of Rachel in one race and 13 lengths behind her in the next. There is nothing even remotely resembling that sort of reaction in her prior racing history, so the race before was obviously a huge new top for her and not \"in line\" with anything she has previously done.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- in answer to your earlier question, no, neither figure was tough to do, either within the race or within the day.

[CHOWDERMAN]

well, rachel\'s connections may have wasted a bullet today...thought back in may when i started this thread she was sitting on a neg 3...probably got it..
the connections figured rachel needed to get her confidence back, but it was they who were lacking confidence in rachel...jb said asmussen uses thorograph numbers to manage his horses...he messed up on this one....she should have went to the polycrap and end these debates on the racetrack...hopefully next time...they\'ll meet, but probably a wolfson-enhanced filly will wind up beating these two...

[TGJB]

First of all, Asmussen uses Ragozin except for Parra\'s horses, where I advise using ours-- I was unwilling to match the ridiculously low (and I\'m not kidding) prices that Friedman charges \"clients\", which is essentially to charge them the same thing they charge bettors for sheets, plus throwing in any data they need for their horses, stake noms, or horses they are considering buying, for free. The obvious intent is to be able to say they have big name horseman clients in order to get some credibility, since they have no history of succesfully recommending purchases, let alone one that compares to ours.

But you\'re right more than you know about Steve, and lots of other trainers. He would say \"I want to run him against weaker to get his confidence up\", and I would say \"You mean you want to get YOUR confidence up\".