Shoemaker Mile - ROTW

[nyc1347]

Lets run em doooooooooooown




1 -  mr gruff -  spent most of his time downhill turf and has improved but runs the mile course for the first time.  i dont like that too much as we have no clue how he will run.  Experimenting is a no no when you wager a horse imo and 7-2 ML doesnt do it for me off two top efforts.

2 - victors cry - nice race last out but i would think a reaction is more likely than not here.  even a pair wouldnt be good enough so il pass to win but maybe a use underneath as a pair may be able to get him in the money at huge odds.

3 - gallant son -  3 top races and BI last out.. cant like that too much. id expect some kind of reaction for this race.

4 - global hunter -  has always come out nice with rest and ran the best races of his life the end of last year.  got well deserved rest and should be primed to go jumping right into a stakes race!  

5 - golden balls -  too slow and pattern looks backwards

6 - noble court - has gone backwards from his sept top effort no reason to think he will go forward that much here

7 - Blue Chagall - another that has moved backwards and has been consistently too slow this year to make any impact for this race.

8 - karelian - has 2 huge efforts and ships out west.  arnold failed the last time he shipped to HOL and at 3-1 i would take a shot saying this one doesnt run another 0 effort.  Also bore out at TAM even though he went forward again.. something doesnt sit right w me and il say he bounces off that tremendous effort last out... i mean a 0 is HUGE!  Bounce sticks out more than anything.

9 - tangled tango -  off the shelf and his best effort wouldnt do it here.. il pass.

10 - Compari -  nothing really wrong with him other than hes running 3s at his best and hes 5-2 ML.  That alone doesnt make sense and is clearly an underlay this race.


Overall -  Compari is an underlay as a fave and the 2 other faves look like they can go backwards off their last efforts. im expecting a very nice effort with global hunter off the shelf.  Hes faster than many of these, will get a ground saving trip, has proven to fire off a layoff and my confidence is at %100 with him according to his thorograph pattern and numbers compared to the field.  The trainer throwing him right into a 300k stakes race is a great look too.  6-1 ML is great overlay odds compared to his chances in here imo.. good luck to you all.

[Silver Charm]

This race is LOADED with EARLY SPEED. The 1 will go and the 8 10 are pace.

This sets up for a closer. Your selection Global Hunter was high quality company last year the four times he ran on Turf but the 0-7 with Trainer on this kind of layoff is enough for me to look elsewhere. This layoff doesn\'t add up and this is not the trainers strength.

I like the 3 with his closing style and the three good efforts on turf and Mike Smith finding his groove with the horse.

BTW-this is a pretty good card at Hollywood

[Lost Cause]

Taking a long look at nobles court.  With the pace setup I\'m playing him to be running strong down the stretch.  He has run good on turf before and has been off slow in his last three sprints and was closing at the end of each.  At more than 20/1 I\'ll bite.

[jbelfior]

Really like him off of the layoff. Bombs away for Mr.Sadler.

Protect with exactas. Even if he runs second, you\'ll do very well!!



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Michael D.]

Noble Court (20-1) -  Sadler does well off the long layoffs. gets a decent amount of pace here. best figures have come with late rushes in 7 and 7 1/2 furlong races. dangerous from the back.

Gallant Son (6-1) - trip edge with post 3 and a good amount of tactical speed. top last over the Hol turf, and the cut back to 1m should suit fine. an inside run in the \'2\' range off the 5 week spacing is the call here, which puts him close.

use Noble Court and Gallant Son



and Warrior\'s Reward to run a new top in the Met Mile. should love the trip. save with the big horse.

[sekrah]

Keying Mr. Gruff.

[Silver Charm]

These Met Win Pools are NUTS....mike d

[Silver Charm]

I amy eat these words but the closer they get to the post the more I like the 3. TVG mad over the 8.

[trackjohn]

Terrific, Terrific job on tha analysis....Thanks to all
1

JOhn

[kensharkey]

nice pick. 44 bucks

[aceriley]

Yes thanks TG, heavy win bet at 21-1 and a $500+ trifecta on a $20 bet. Account is ready now for Belmont next week.

Ace