Fly Down - Belmont Thoughts

[joekay]

Anybody have an opinion about MMFM?  Wasn\'t that far back from IB, and although I couldn\'t follow him for much of the race, he seemed to make a very wide move into the stretch (if I have the right horse).  Did anyone have a clearer view of his trip?

[jimbo66]

Charitable Man was facing faster horses than Fly Down will be facing.  He may also be better bred for the distance than CM.

But I sincerely doubt that anybody gets 4-1 on Fly Down.  Fly Down has beaten First Dude twice already, and has a big win at Belmont.  He will go off 2nd choice.  5-2ish.  3-1 maybe.

[big18741]

Pretty good race.

I can make a case for any of the three obvious favorites and a couple others.

Ice Box has rest,stamina should fire.Less pace and the lead changes are to be considered.

Fly Down\'s Dwyer looked good.Have to see how that head wind affected the front runners on the rest of the card.In his race the front runners collapsed-the back running covered up horses ran 1-2-3. He does pick up some weight which was my concern for Charitable Man last year.Don\'t know his sheet other than thru the La Derby.

First Dude ran big and drifted out late.Was that Ramon race riding or was the big colt gassed? Galloped out better than the field-wanna see how he works before blindly tossing on bounce.

Game on Dude ran better in the blinks and second in the Baffert barn.Could be a runner with some upside here.Sire and damsire are G1 winners going 10f\'s.Don\'t know his sheet either but the first two at GP were solid-the next two ugly stepping up in the Fla Derby near the solid pace on the inside and in the Derby Trial mud.

MMFM is an improving three year old since getting the blinkers.Five weeks helps.Fast track and distance pedigree are a concern.Will have a couple works at Belmont which could provide some clues on the surface.Was he really 3w on the first turn at Churchill from the back of the pack? I know about the wide on the second turn.I don\'t have him pegged as a one run stone closer.He was pinched back into that trip on Derby Day.

Stay Put could clunk up into a placing.Stamina is not his problem.