Donna Barton

[sighthound]

What you said.  Yes, common is 20-30 lbs via lasix, sweating (2-3% of body weight) - which the horse should put back on in a few days.  100 lbs (10% of body weight) indicates to me a horse who needs a break.  Moving down, not moving up and getting fitter.  

Easier to assess in hindsight, especially if the horse has been training well enough, cleaning up it\'s feed, going about it\'s work every morning without complaint.  Every horse is different.  It\'s very difficult to keep these horses fresh throughout the TC series.   But don\'t discount SS this fall.  Good horse.

The best advice is sift carefully through the reports from people on the ground at Churchill in the mornings for three weeks before Derby.  People pay good money for private clockers and private experienced observers.  Try to hook into that source if one can.

[nyc1347]

You guys ever think that this was the reason Pletcher thru in Aikenite?  Maybe he figured to have 2 horses come off a top effort to hope that one of them fired?

[Silver Charm]

I seriously doubt it.

Aikenite was a closer and he threw him in. Plenty of trainers before him such as Baffert and Lukas have run two.

Sight I agree that SS is not a total bum. But man that was bad and the line looked pretty good. Even if he was a bad play at the price he did not look like a horse who was going to be dusted 11+.

Meanwhile as SS is getting beaten up (by me) perhaps Pletcher needs to be asked if he second guesses how he prepared the horse.

Bafferts horse had every reason to mail one in but he was ready.....

[drbillym]

Baffert recognized it was better not to give Lucky a workout before the Preakness-Pletcher was not as astute

[martoon]

Why the conspiracy theory?  Those horses are owned by two separate renowned organizations in this sport.  Dogwood had a nice colt in good form and wanted to run him in a Classic.  Simple as that in my eyes.  You want every millionaire independent owner who uses Pletcher, with their own huge investments in these animals to bow down to the almighty Super Saver and skip the Classics?  If it was the same owner that would be a different story.

[nyc1347]

Its not a conspiracy theory just a possibility.   BOTH horses had a minimal amount of rest entering that race and were fast compared to the field at their best.  Aikenite was actually faster coming in than SS.  Pletcher knowing the conditions of these horses why put AIKENITE out of all his horses from the fleet?  He could have easily advised the owners to wait for Belmont and come in the race with rest.  He didnt and something just seems a little off especially with both horses having very similar situations.  Just dont see the point of entering 2 horses who just happened to be 2 of the fastest in the race with no rest.. it would make sense to me if he wanted a backup horse who is fast at his best just in case the other one didnt fire.. especially with both horses having 2 totally different running styles.

[mjellish]

Just a quick point.  

If I owned Aikenite and Pletcher told me he didn\'t want to run him in the Preakness because SS was shooting for a chance at the Triple Crown, I would fire him that same day and take ALL of my horses to someone else.

AIK was doing well, the connections wanted to run him in a classic, they obviously thought the Preakness was a better spot compared to waiting for a 1 1/2 in the Belmont (which I agree with), and Pletcher did the right thing by running him.

HIGHLY doubt this had anything to do with the condition of SS.  Simply a trainer trying to be fair to all of his horses and owners.

[sekrah]

From I\'ve read/heard/understood this was a 100% owners decision. Immediately after the Bluegrass at Keeneland, Dogwood\'s Cot Campbell wrote up a path to Pimlico and after the Derby Trial, Campbell told Pletcher, this horse is running in the Preakness.

That is that.  Pletcher can advise them all he wants.  It\'s their horse.  Some owners give full control to trainers, others do not.

Pletcher had absolutely nothing to do with the decision to run Aikenite.

[nyc1347]

Im not saying this had anything to do with SS winning the triple crown.  I  am saying it makes sense that he would want a backup horse in the race.. meaning it wouldve been ok for Aikenite to win...meaning he probably loved the idea of him being in there.   Me being a thorograph user if Pletcher was ok for me to run Aikenite off 3 weeks rest after the horse JUST raced a huge 1 top effort (compared to his other numbers) I would fire him myself... he did the same thing with keyed entry years ago and that didnt pan out of course.  If it was JUST the owners then fine but it was a foolish decision imo. As a trainer I wouldve advised to wait..  pletcher didnt care to me cause of that backup horse idea. Aikenite is now knocked out for while til he recovers from that big jump and top effort he just ran anyway.  

The rest is always 1 on the list when a horse jumps THAT much last out.  6 weeks wouldve been MUCH better than the 3 weeks he got even going a little longer in distance next out.

[martoon]

You\'re probably right Sekrah and it is their right to tell their trainer to enter a horse in any race they want, especially the classics.  These horses were balls out trying to get in condition for the classics so why not run in them?  Sheets prompted race spacing or not.  That\'s what these huge owners dream of, being on that stage.  A Grade 3 at Presque Isle isn\'t quite the same. i don\'t know about you guys but I think the Preakness is always the best race in the country.  Because it actually has a star of the movie.  99% of the public can\'t identify with any horses in the Kentucky Derby beforehand but only afterwards there is a star created to the general public and a storyline to follow for the masses.  The Belmont is only ever I had to pick one I\'ll take the Preakness.

[mjellish]

I personally think that rest is one of the most misunderstood factors of horses and form cycles.  Quite simply, every race either puts something into a horse or takes something out of them.  And not all horses are the same.  

In general it takes 2-3 weeks for a horse to really begin to recover from an effort.  A bigger effort can require more time, but not always.  Sometimes not racing a horse or giving them too much time in between starts is a BAD thing.  

I think it is very important to take into consideration the circumstances that surrounded the big effort when trying to evaluate how likely that horse is to regress, move forward or hold form into their next race.  Was there a track bias that benefited the horse in his move up race (almost sure not to run as well next out), was there a change in meds or equipment (likely to run just as well again), did the horse get a perfect trip or pace set up (almost sure not to run as well without that same set up), did the horse have a good foundation to begin with (more likely to recover quickly), was there a surface or distance change, etc.  

I think a person can have much more luck with pattern handicapping if they take some of these things into account when looking at the numbers.  The numbers by themselves often don\'t tell the whole story. In Aikenite\'s case, he may have really liked the slop or the cut back in distance to a one turn mile.  He may not have run any harder in the Churchill race than he did at Keenland or Gulfstream before that.  If the Preakness was a one turn mile on a sloppy Churchill track he may well have run another 1 or even better.  Had he rested three more weeks and come back at 1 1/2 in the Belmont he probably would have run worse.
 
I guess what I am trying to say is that just because a horse runs big doesn\'t mean they have to have extended rest or they won\'t fire again.  You can\'t just take the effort and numbers at face value by themselves.  You have to look at the circumstances around the effort and take them into account, and I don\'t think you can be too rigid with how you apply rest standards to any particular horse or pattern.  

But that being said, in general, I agree that big efforts spaced too close together will almost always eventually catch up with a horse.  And if one doesn\'t do it, two usually will.  So I like to see 4-6 weeks rest at some point between races.  More rest than that is usually a negative for me unless it was a planned vacation or part of a trainer\'s plan for targeting a specific goal.  And if I see a really big effort, especially one that comes off a layoff (see Quality Road in the Donn), I will almost always play that horse to regress unless I see or hear positive info about how the horse is training.
 
Eventually all horses need a break and if you don\'t give it to them they give it to themselves.

[magicnight]

Last Saturday was also the 20th anniversary of Dogwood\'s only classic win, so there may have been some sentiment involved.

[SoCalMan2]

I dont know who it was, but I think the guy who just called the Preakness did a terrible job.

The new guy at CD (from England) is the best I have ever heard.  I like now just to listen to the CD races even if i have nothing on them just for the pleasure of listening to his race calls.  Sort of like it was with Trevor Denman in the late 80s early 90s.