Knock, Knock, Knock, Off Race, then the improved Effort

[streetbull]

In the past, I have used Hansel for trying to exemplified the Big Race,Subpar race,Bounce race, then the Big Race form cycle for a young developing three year colt early in the year after a couple months rest from  his two year racing season.

Big Race ( 0 effort )
Bounce race (XXXX )
Sub-par race ( 2 effort )
Big Race ( 0 effort )

break.........( couple of months )
two year  racing season


Now,I would like to discuss another type of form cycle......( any feedbacks are very welcome and will be much appreciated...)

It is the \"Knock, Knock, Knock\", off race , then followed by an effort about 2 lengths better then the knock, knock efforts....

The 3 knock, knock, races are 3 race efforts with the same number ratings which is then followed by a bounce race, which is then followed by a racing effort about 2 lengths better then the knock races......

0 effort
  Bounce race XXXXXX

  2 effort
  2 effort
  2 effort

break from two year racing season

IMHO, the horse which fits this pattern is Dublin......
But even with the expected improvement  from Dublin, Dublin handicaps slightly below SuperSaver...But SuperSaver might have slight advantage with his early position especially over the Baltimore strip,where as Dublin has to navigate from back of the Preakness field...

Good luck to  everyone tomorrow....

[nyc1347]

yeaaaaaa i know this pattern!!!!  its FLYING PRIVATE IN LAST YEARS 2009 DERBY EVERYONE!  TAKE A LOOK!  

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2009.pdf

[nyc1347]

if you want an EXACT example compared to dublin and what this \"knock knock\"
 whatever is, check out Fresian Fire in that same 2009 derby file... he ran about an 8 or so after his bounce 17 race

[nyc1347]

and of course lets not forget about Big Brown in the Belmont.. thats probably the BEST example.  

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2008.pdf



with this specific pattern it be throwing out a more reasonable pattern such as an O-2-X..  ok im done