Since 2000, there have been 8 instances of horses that ran their numbers in the Preakness after having bounced in the Derby

Captain Steve
Point Given
Dollar Bill
Afleet Alex
Sun King
High Limit
Sweetnorthern Saint
Flying Private

This makes it tough for me to throw out horses who\'s pattern I liked going into the Derby like LAL and even Jackson Bend.

jack72906: Thanks for the post Cove. For clarification you\'re saying that only 8 horses have run a new top in the Preakness after bouncing/regressing in the Derby?

Since the majority of the time Derby horses regress in the Derby wouldn\'t this be a very low percentage?

nyc1347: I kind of have this idea that we havent seen JB run new tops this year cause that one effort of 0 last year was after so much improvement and it was a random pop forging forward thru his 2yo campaign.. until he can show some kind of nice forge to that 0 im more inclined to leave him out of any win wagers cause those 2s and 3s wont get it done imo.

LAL didnt bounce derby day and im not too sure how ur relating his derby effort going into the preakness? he ran an off race to me... The stat u are talking about is bouncing derby day (which LAL didnt do) right?

Silver Charm: Thx for this list.

This has helped me identify the winner, and he did not bounce in this years Derby, but tripped similar to one of those on the list who did win the Preakness.

Ill-bred: Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thx for this list.
>
> This has helped me identify the winner, and he did
> not bounce in this years Derby, but tripped
> similar to one of those on the list who did win
> the Preakness.


Survey says ... Paddy O\'Prado

Bonus Points - Afleet Alex

Silver Charm: The horse who beat him. If Ice Box gets the wide Mike Smith Giacomo trip he might win.

SS was that close to the H_Pace.

SS if taken well back and gettin better could be primed for a big one. Big diff here between he and Alex is Alex was much more proven from off the pace.

SS with his line could be as low as 9-5

Ill-bred: Afleet Alex and Super Saver actually did run similar races from a fractional standpoint and both came home in a slow 26-4.

Alex\'s performance was only good for third and for him was a sub-par effort (4 point bounce off a top).

Super Saver moved forward a point in the Derby. He still has room to move forward, although I would think only two weeks rest tempers that.

The reason I guessed Paddy was he and Afleet Alex had very similar trips in terms of position, jocks moving a little early, and encountering trouble.

Silver Charm: Good Points on all. The encountering trouble is probably the only difference here.

The Derby can be like that where sometimes you HAVE to move when you move to avoid being swallowed up or trapped further.

I think if Jeremy Rose had a mulligan and could hold his move on Alex a fraction of a second longer he would.

And we all would have a Triple Crown winner........