Talamo's Ride on Sidney's Candy

[number5858]

I know Sidney\'s Candy was a speed horse breaking from the 20 spot, and I know I am no jockey and don\'t know the trainer\'s instructions, but I do know that as I watched the race live, it seemed like Sidney\'s Candy was gunned to the front and had about a 46s 1/2. This would seemingly eliminate any chance of winning, so my question is whether there was any other way to ride this horse to give a chance to win? No, I didn\'t bet a dime on him because of the 20 spot, but it seems like maybe there would be some better way to give the horse a chance to win.

[Leamas57]

I don\'t know if that horse (SC) will rate--I was betting he could, but Talamo seemed dead set on getting to the front and I wonder if he didn\'t suffer from a little Derby fever.

Borel got a great draw with a fast horse, but he wisely kept some horse in reserve. My point is that if you know how a jockey thinks and whether he/she is one-dimensional or not, it changes everything because pace determines many outcomes. Ramon D, for example, will adapt the ride to the race. Tyler Baze out West and D. Cohen in NY seem to prefer the front. Solis used to like to bring \'em in late.

Tough game and jockeys a major factor.

Leamas

[number5858]

Yeah, I was kind of wondering if Joe had a little Derby fever being that it was his first one. Maybe the horse wouldn\'t rate, but I would have to think you should find out rather than ride into a suicidal pace.

[analizethis]

I thought that SC could rate but after the draw decided that I could only use underneath on exotic tickets. My exact words were that if he tried to run Big Brown\'s race he didn\'t lay over this field like Big Brown did.

On Saturday I heard Sadler interviewed and in response to a question about jockey instructions he gave what I thought was a very telling answer. He said that he trusted Bejarano to use his judgment to get Line of David in the right spot however he was going to tell Talamo exactly where he wanted him to be because at 19 years old (I think Joe\'s actually older than that now) that\'s what needed to be done. This showed a real lack of confidence given they had the second morning line favorite.

So there is little doubt in my mind that Talamo either blindly did what he was told and the blame lays elsewhere or he felt so much pressure that he just panicked on the first turn.

[miff]

Don\'t know if the ride really mattered? Felt SC was faster than his figs, did chase but ran pretty bad imo and doubt any trip would have put him on the board. Perhaps SC just not good on wet dirt or dirt period.

Questionable ride was by Willie Martinez prematurely moving NP into very fast splits, probably cost NP a couple of placings.NP ran well all things considered but needs to shorten up.


Mike

[jack72906]

I liked the horses chances to move forward for the last few weeks especially after the workout reports in the slop were positive. When the PP draw came out he was an immediate toss IMO. Big Brown won from PP 20 and he wasn\'t in his league.

If SC draws inside and SS is in post 20 I play SC all day.

[alm]

A very close friend of mine was in the Craig party and told me, before they left California, what were Talamo\'s instructions.  They were set that early.  

He was told to do what he did.  Watching the race I checked off in my mind \"yup that\'s what I was told.\"  Talamo did it perfectly according to instructions.  He didn\'t panic.

Most of us on this site knew there was no way the horse was going to win...but they felt rushing him up was their only chance, given the post.  Right or wrong.

[Leamas57]

That only enhances my belief and conviction that many owners and (some trainers) could learn a lot from experienced handicappers (not necessarily me). They seem to be like CEOs who are so blindly optimistic that they can\'t see the forest for the tree(s).

I suppose in the case of SC, they had positive reinforcement with the strategy in the past and figured it was the least risky path, the bigger risk (to their minds) being a troubled trip, not a pace casualty.

Leamas.

[alm]

Well, they certainly went down with the ship, so to speak.  But they knew they couldn\'t win and had only the slightest amount of optimism.

I do appreciate and agree with your comment about taking advice from handicappers...particularly TG experts on form cycles and specific strengths of horses.  Most trainers I have known are pretty clueless.  The best of them are the best for a reason.

[number5858]

Thank you for the trainer\'s intent. I thought that was the most likely reason for the particular ride, but then I have never sat atop a favored horse in the gates at the Kentucky Derby. I can understand how your adrenalin might be pumping.

[bobphilo]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Most of us on this site knew there was no way the
> horse was going to win...but they felt rushing him
> up was their only chance, given the post.  Right
> or wrong.

I vote wrong. Given the horrible post, SC's connections were between a rock and a hard place in choosing a strategy from the start. However, after considering all the factors, the choice to send him for the lead early was the one that virtually assured that he would be nowhere to be seen at the finish.

 The only way that it could have worked would be that he could clear a 20-horse field with several speedballs inside of him, some of which had also shown that they could sustain that kind of pressure on dirt despite fast early fractions, and still be vertical in the stretch. Given that the only race in which he indicated he was even a contender figure-wise had been the result of a very easy uncontested early lead on a synthetic surface, the only way this could have worked would have been if all the front runners and pressers would mysteriously run slower early fractions in a race where just the opposite is the rule, or if SC would turn in a performance like Secretariat did in the '73 Belmont. In short, virtually impossible.

Several alternatives were possible, all of which would be based on not taking him impossibly out of his early pace comfort zone. Ideally, there was the possibility that a gap would develop between the dueling leaders and 2nd or 3rd flight into which he could cut into, or close to, the rail. The energy cost of speed is exponential, so that at high speed the slight difference between the lead and just off it can be very significant. Even in the more likely case that some horses would populate this gap and he would be a few paths out, costing him between a few and several lengths,he would still be out of the suicidal early pace zone. No denying, he would likely lose a number of lengths, but might still have enough left to actually pass the casualties of the suicidal pace in the stretch. He might even be able to find a path even closer to the rail on the far turn and make a Borel–like move with the energy he saved earlier, if the horse had the ability.

Admittedly, the probabilities of either of these scenarios occurring by themselves are not good, and even if added, may still be small, however, they still give him a better chance than just throwing him into the teeth of a suicidal pace from the next county.

Interestingly, the connections of Big Brown had a similar decision to make when starting from the 20 hole in the '08 Derby. I don't recall the expected pace scenario, but I doubt it was as hot as this years race, and the actual pace did turn out to be more reasonable than the last renewal. Yes, BB was so much better than the rest that they might have decided to take the ground loss as insurance to avoid a pace meltdown. However, one must consider that despite BB's proven ability to win despite setting a fast pace on dirt, something SC has not demonstrated, they still chose to not contest the pace from such an impossible position.

Getting back to the basic question, while SC was likely destined to a poor finish due to his post position, the strategy to go for the early lead at any cost, despite all the negatives in this situation, virtually assured he was doomed from the start.

Sorry about the lenghty post, but that\'s partly due to so many other more favorable outcomes than the one resulting from the strategy employed.

Bob

[sekrah]

Sending Sidney to the lead is an indefensible decision IMO.   Infact, if I knew before the race that Sadler was planning to send him like that, I would of saved alot of money leaving him off the bottom of my tickets.  He gave the horse a 0% chance to win the race.

[alm]

First of all I am sorry that I did not post this insight before the race, but it would have compromised my friend, who was in their party.  

Second, I couldn\'t agree more with Bob\'s analysis...my brother told me he would bet SC and I screamed him down, knowing what I had heard.  There was no way this horse would survive the strategy.

I was very surprised at the preliminary decision myself.

[bobphilo]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First of all I am sorry that I did not post this
> insight before the race, but it would have
> compromised my friend, who was in their party.  
>
> Second, I couldn\'t agree more with Bob\'s
> analysis...my brother told me he would bet SC and
> I screamed him down, knowing what I had heard.
> There was no way this horse would survive the
> strategy.
>
> I was very surprised at the preliminary decision
> myself.

Alm,

Understood why you couldn\'t share this info earlier. Thanks for telling it when you can. It explains a lot. Glad you could at least keep your brother from betting. I included the horse reluctantly hoping it would be rated. After I saw the splits for the 1st quarter I thought I was in trouble. After the half I knew it. When I saw the slow final time, and related the early splits to it, I was furious. Why do some trainers think they can break the laws of physics and biology and make their horse do the impossible?

Fortunately I had other Exactas with other horses, including SS and IB, but any ticket with SC on it was a waste of money, given the strategy.

Bob

[number5858]

Aim, I just wanted to say that I admire your integrity for protecting your friend. Thank you for sharing afterwards. I know I am not a trainer, owner, jockey, etc., but trying to reason why the race was run that way was just bugging me after the race. I will grant you that I didn\'t think Sidney could win, but I did think he might crack the super. I knew there was no chance after the first 1/2.