I'm the Derby Curmudgeon

[Dana666]

I would like to take the role of official 2010 Derby Curmudgeon: The Derby is the most over-hyped sporting event on the planet. It is also a handicapper\'s worst nightmare, and as I\'ve grown older and older, I wonder why do I care? Twenty horses is an absurd number to send on a mile and a quarter journey none have traveled before and most will never travel again. You can almost be guaranteed that the best horse will not win due to the traffic/trouble other issues. In what other American race are there 20 horses, and in what other race is the 1 post death (that is what everyone I know has told me this year about \'Lucky\'s chances)? How am I supposed to handicap which mediocre animal will trip out? Sounds almost like synthetic racing! So we discuss it for months and months, over analyze every minute and ridiculous detail, and in the end your horse gets wiped out on the first turn. Oh, well, turn the page -- who\'s in the 6th race at Hollywood? How about going to the track on that day? Every other day of the year, your local simulcast outlet is like a funeral home, and for some reason, on Derby day, 10,000 morons show up - oh, that\'s load of fun. In short this race sucks. Yeah, everyone is going for that life-changing score, and I want to know how is that going to happen in the Derby as opposed to any other race? What am I going to hit the high-5 or something? If you\'re betting small on the Derby, you ain\'t making a life changing score, and if you\'re betting 10K, you\'re already in good shape. Let me finally say what I should have said about 15 years ago, I don\'t care who wins the Derby, and I\'m not wasting any money on this roman circus. It has come to mean nothing to me. After last year when Mine That Bird runs by them all like they were tied to a post, I kind of gave up once and for all. By the way Beulah has a million dollar carry over (mandatory pay-out) and .25 cent pick six on Saturday -- I might jump in there (even though I\'ve picked like 1 winner at Beulah my whole life -- hey, that\'s one more Derby winner I\'ve had since the Silver Charm era -- so what the hell!)  My challenge to all you aficionados who will be jumping in with both fists is just this: just visually spot your horse for a continuous quarter mile at any point in the race. If you can do that, I consider you a winner. Don\'t worry about winning or cashing a ticket; just actually find the horse you bet on and watch him run for a quarter mile - only after checking the charts the next day do I ever know where my selections finished!

Notes: Why did the DRF decide NOT to include the Derby past performances just in case I wanted to play the Oaks/Derby Double or Woodford Pick3 in Friday\'s form? They need the extra 7.50 so badly? What cheapskates - all newspapers should just go out of business tomorrow morning! Second, I mean no disrespect to Jerry with all this banter - Derby Day to him must be like Valentine\'s Day to a Florist (he earned it and deserves it), and it WAS very cool to see TVG discussing Thorograph numbers in their Derby analysis today! Other than that this race is a real snoozer. I\'ll say Lucky and Sidney are clearly the two best horses this year, and I\'ll bet (figuratively speaking, of course) neither one hits the board.

[Leamas57]

They (drf) did include it. It\'s in mine...

Leamas

[jbelfior]

Dana:

If by now you need a Racing Form to bet the Derby, then you\'re better off skipping it.

I agree; betting wise it\'s a crapshoot and just another race. However, I made $42,000 when Funny Cide won in 2003 with a $400 investment in doubles and exactas ( it would have been more if Peace Rules had held second). It broke a 10 year losing streak in the race and I\'m 1 for 6 since. But I\'m way ahead....Derby wise.

You or I are not going to win that kind of money with that kind of investment on Hollywood\'s 6th race tomorrow, Saturday, or any other day. That\'s why we play the Derby and talk about it for weeks, if not months. Besides, it\'s FUN!!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[moosepalm]

Those are great points, and I couldn\'t agree with you more.

BTW, who do you like?

[Dana666]

What edition was that? I got mine at Monmouth Park. We were all raising hell that it wasn\'t there! People were calling the DRF offices.

[Leamas57]

For what it\'s worth, Dana, I think it\'s the most exciting two minutes in sports. The Derby reminds me of my first experience with sex: obsessive anticipation and a blink of euphoria followed by obsessive recollection.

Leamas

[Leamas57]

I think I have the LA edition.

[sekrah]

Agree with Joe.   The Derby is an enormous once-a-year betting opportunity.  You won\'t hit every year, but if you are a good handicapper and aggressively attack the race you can make one huge score per decade that puts you well ahead in the long-run.   It\'s the most profitable betting race of the year IMO.

I crushed the race in 2001 for about $8k with Monarchos as my key for a $1 triple as well as exacta and win ticket.   The only other year I profited from the Derby was in 2008 with Big Brown, when I used him as a defensive wager and eeked out a very small profit as the exacta came back shockingly high with EB.   Broke about even in 2007, but every other year has been a losing one, ripping up pretty much every ticket I bought.

I have a good feeling about this year.  I\'m due for another big score, maybe Super Saver can be my Monarchos this year and I can roll in a bomber behind him. But even if I don\'t, that one big score in 2001 still has me well ahead betting this race.  Infact, i could go the next 6 or so Derbies without cashing a ticket and still be even from that one big hit.

[richiebee]

Agree that the Derby is overhyped, especially recently, when it has been a
showcase for relatively mediocre 3YOs about to become overpriced stallions.

I bet the Pick 4 however, and Derby Day is the only day of the year when you can
bet into a pool with field sizes like we will see Saturday (before scratches):
10/13/9/20.

The gripe about DRF is rather petty considering they have offered PPs for all
Derby contenders (for free) online for the last month or so.

I have not seen JB\'s analysis, but the fastest entrant in the race, TG wise, is
30/1 ML, and his sire won 2 very big races at the Derby distance, one over this
surface.