Repost--Ragozin's Derby Numbers

[TGAB]

Okay, so I\'ve seen Ragozin\'s pre-entry and Derby sheets, and there are a couple of things of note.

There are the usual differences in the figures we assigned for some races (keep in mind our figures run about 3 points faster), most of which are not major. A point or two in a race or two for one horse can change his whole pattern, as someone looking at both sets of sheets will see. Problem is, as we know, analysis of the patterns is subjective, and sheet players using the SAME sheets often disagree on their views of the same horse, so short term results are at best evidence, never proof. As for long term evidence, I think that those who have looked at the results of the big races that Friedman and I have analyzed over the years (to the degree Len has been willing to go on record at all) know how that has played out.

However, there were a couple of things of note in Ragozin\'s Derby sheets that were not subjective.

1- Ragozin got the figures for Funny Cide and Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial wrong (again), but for an entirely different reason than in past years. Despite the high winds and wet, sealed track (going from sloppy to muddy), the variant for the two turn races was pretty constant, within 1 1/2 point for all 3 races. Ragozin hung the exact variant for the Wood on Senor Swinger, the only horse he could pair up using a variant within a point or two of the other races, which is fine. Problem is, their trackman got the ground for SS wrong-- he was wider than they have him, with his net ground the same as Empire Maker\'s. Therefore the relationship between SS (the key horse in assigning the variant) and the rest of the field is wrong, and resulted in Ragozin assigning figures about a point too fast to the rest of the field.

I know that those of you who have never made figures may have a hard time following that, but those who have made figures will get it right away. And if you watch a tape of the race and can get Friedman to post the Wood sheets it should be pretty clear to all.

By the way, I also paired up Senor Swinger. But since we had the ground right, that also paired up Empire Maker. Which is strong confirmation the Wood figure is right, and also evidence EM\'s previous figure (Florida Derby) is right. Funny how that works-- the basis for this entire method of making figures is horses running to previous figure histories, and the tighter your data base, the more often it happens.

2- The second point of interest doesn\'t require any figure experience, just common sense. And I have to say I wouldn\'t have even looked close enough to notice it if the whole question of Buddy Gil\'s turf number hadn\'t come up a couple of weeks ago. Some of you may recall that Ragozin gave out a super fast figure for BG\'s win in a small turf sprint stake, much faster than he earned to win the San Felipe or SA Derby. Friedman posted the Rag sheets for the race, showing that the figures they assigned were in line with the other (sprint) figures the horses had run. Since ours were as well, while much slower, I suggested that the difference was due to Ragozin (actually I believe Friedman does Southern California figures) failing to split the one and two turn races when making variants, thereby giving all the sprinters out there faster than they should get, and robbing the routers.

Anyway, this caused me to take a good look at the Ragozin sheets for the three year olds who raced in Southern California. This is what I found:

Ragozin (Friedman?) gave Scrimshaw a 1 1/4 when he won an allowance at Santa Anita by a head as a two year old. He then gave him an 8 1/4 when he won the GII Lexington by 3 lengths as a 3 year old. In other words, if you believe Ragozin, if Scrimshaw had run back to his best race (a photo win in an allowance) he would have won the Lexington by 17 lengths.

Ragozin gave Indian Express a 5 3/4 for a fourth place finish in a small sprint stake at Santa Anita. He gave him exactly the same number-- no improvement-- for getting beat a nose in the GI SA Derby, a million dollar race full of Derby contenders.

Ragozin gave Kafwain a zero for his stake win in the San Vicente (we also gave him a very big number). But he only gave him a 7 for running third, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, in the SA Derby. If you believe Ragozin, if Kafwain had run his top he would have won the SA Derby by 11 lengths, even though that effort was only good enough to beat sprinters Sum Trick and Southern Image by 5.

As mentioned before, Ragozin gave Buddy Gil a 1 1/2 wiining an overnight turf sprint stake by 2 lengths, but only 5\'s for winning the San Felipe and SA Derby. If you believe Ragozin, BG\'s best would have won both races by 6 lengths.

If you believe Ragozin, Minister\'s Wild Cat best race was his first-- he gave him 4 1/2 for losing a maiden sprint by 3 lengths. His next three-- a 7 length maiden win, a stake win at GG and a wide second to Ten Most Wanted in the El Camino Real-- earned 8,9,6.

Eye Of The Tiger is another good one. They gave him a 6 and a 5 for running third twice in sprints at SA (allowance, overnight stake), but going back 4 points when he ran second in the Lexington. If you believe Ragozin, not only wasn\'t it his best race, but his best effort would have won that race by 4 1/2 lengths.

There are other good examples (like Domestic Dispute and Santa Catarina), but overall, if you believe Ragozin\'s figures, you believe that the 3 year olds in California:

a- all ran bad in the SA Derby. The only one who ran a top was Indian Express, and he just paired up.

b- in general, are all sprinters, or all early developers who are struggling to regain their form, instead of going forward like most 3 year olds.

Here\'s a suggestion to those using Ragozin figures-- when you handicap horses coming from Southern California, as a broad rule of thumb (individual cases vary), add 2 points to the sprints, and subtract 2 from the routes.

TGJB