Derby tops stats

[deg]

First time poster to the site so be gentle with me. There was a proposition in another thread that someone could go back to the archives and do the stats on the number of new tops that were run in the Derby. I went back through the last 13 years and tracked how many horses ran a new top, how many paired and how many regressed. My definition for a pair was within one point of their fastest time as a 3 year old. A top was more then one point faster then their best three year old time, and a regression was more then one point worse then their best time. I used these arbitrary numbers because to be honest it meant I could get the stats in a shorter amount of time.


   So here goes 23 horses ran new tops or about 10%. One year there were 5 new tops all other years there were 2 or less. 57 horses paired which is about 25%. And 154 horses regressed or about 66%. All percents are rounded. I did this quickly so I am not going to swear to complete accuracy.

[magicnight]

Deg, a top is a top. Your calculations may include Street Sense running a new top in the Derby, but he really just paired his 2YO top that day. But your overall percentages seem to be in line (by memory anyhow) with what has been posted here in previous Aprils, so they make sense to me.

Since there seems to be some agreement here that if Esky runs his race it\'s all about completing the exotics, it\'s probably a good time to post a link to this PDF http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/file.php?1,file=98 and ask if there is any way to get this updated prior to derby day.

[TGJB]

Magic--We\'re working on all kinds of studies for the seminar.
Tuesdays for golf this year.