ROTW In Depth

[nyc1347]

1 -  Krypton -   clearly this horse hates the dirt... ran on the turf to a whole new level.. we can excuse that 23 effort and with rest this horse came right back to his previous top effort as a fresh 3 year old.  Went forward after this and then paired up that new top.  This horse shows on turf and poly combined a top pair top pair pattern so going into this race we should expect a new top!  6-1 ML is great odds so this is a strong horse in this field.

2 -  uptowncharlybrown -  first time poly track and im not  afan at all of a horse who has never run poly let alone in a desperate stakes race to attempt to make the derby..  no value and after (what i saw) to be a perfect trip last out with no top response it gives me even more reason to throw this rat out the window.. il pass

3 - Distorted Dave -  in line the first 3 races and then exploded forward.  Hard for me to think any kind of forward movement will happen again especially with a 4 point move off of only 22 days off rest.  Il pass on him thinking a regression is more likely.

4 - Bushwacked -   FAST horse BUT key thing here is that he has had significant rest between starts to be allowed to run back to new top efforts.  2 weeks is not enough time whatsoever to come back to a new top in my opinion so i will pass here.  horse is racing too fast too soon and this makes no sense to me here.. dont be surprised if they scratched this horse

5 - Call Shot -  the 4 effort took this horse back and it wasnt until last out (5 months later) that this horse ran a new top effort.  with about a month and a half off i wouldnt think that this horse would be prepared to run a top effort with this point of view..  an off effort is much more likely.

6 - Prince Will I am -  ran a back effort after the first start then to a new top next out then backwards again... that new top was 7 points though and probably took something out of this horse.. although the pattern shows good bad good bad i cannot expect a horse with a short line like this to definitely run a new top.. theres not enough information for that point of view so i will pass thinking he will run an in between off number that wouldnt be good here.

7 - Lonesome Street -  if we take his pattern with turf and poly it is... top top back... top top.. back?  with only 3 weeks off and no new efforts from last year i will pass on this one thinking he will run an even effort.

8 - Exhi -  top efforts have been in line.. first time poly top last out telling me he def loves the polytrack.. im expecting a pretty good effort for this one but somewhere in line 6-8?

9 - Heavenville -   no rest and new top last out.. expecting something inbetween a top and off effort... 8-9ish?

10 - Connemara -  went backwards off a new effort last out.  no rest today and i wouldnt expect a new top but a pair at best is more likely.

11 - Kettle River -  ran twice on that poly and seems to be stuck at that level (of 7=8) especially going back last out.. expecting around a 7-8 here at best and no value.

12 -  Chief Counsel -  new top after rest and then bounced going the distance with good rest.   has plenty of rest from that bounce to come back though and an off effort would be ok for exotics with a good trip... im not high on bounce horses but this one compared to other is a fast one on a top day so its a must use to me.



Overall -   in my opinion, i think its no question the 1 horse Krypton is the horse to beat here..  the 8, 10 and 12 could be used underneath..  6-1 ML on Krypton is my key.. GL to all!

[jbelfior]

Nice job, NYC.

CALL SHOT.....Krypton a definite use, however.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[albany]

NYC

Appreciate your analysis and agree with your conclusion, but I got there by following a different path.

Albany

[jack72906]

Krypton- Needs to run a new top to win. Will he do it after two weeks while breaking from the rail? He ran a 6 with a perfect trip last time. If the race shapes are accurate he\'ll be comprised by pace and potentially ground loss if he has to circle the field. Minor awards if anything IMO.

UCB-Huge jockey switch to GG and the running lines say he was checked in TBD. I didn\'t see anything that cost him the race. When Schoolyard Dreams made his move in that race, UCB started to drop back midway into the far turn and it was over. Too early to tell what Limehouse brings to the synth and too short of a price to use.

Distorted Dave-Has yet to move back and should save ground. He also has a victory at the distance and on a similar surface, but I\'m worried that he shipped in late. Underneath.

Bushwacked-Great number/pattern and the race shape looks to favor him. A win over the surface is a HUGE plus. Unfortunately, he comes back in 2 weeks with a new rider and a big jump in class. I\'ll use him underneath because I highly doubt the line will be anywhere 12-1.

Call Shot-Love the price, pattern, PP, Catalano\'s percentages, and he should be in good position to get a run on the leaders. He also ran a decent 2yo number on this track and has 3 solid works over the course. Add that to the fact that in his only win Junior was aboard. Slightly worried that he weakend in the stretch two back but it was against Bim Bam and Nordic Truce. KEY.

Prince Will I Am- Too far back throughout the race and his late pace numbers are not good enough to get there. Especially when the track has had a tendency to favor the leaders or those pressing the pace.

Lonesome Street-Needs a big jump to hit the board. Not happening today.

Exhi-Should be part of the early pace with Bushwacked, but with a short run to the first turn it\'s highly doubtful that he\'ll be on the lead and according to his PPs he\'s passed only 5 horses in his career. Oh, and he\'s a little too slow for this group AND he gives weight.

Heavenville-Probably loses too much ground because of the speed to the inside. Can\'t use today.

Connemara-Always has problems getting out and coming from the 10 post with a short run up is his biggest problem. Additionally, he won\'t be tracking that group he did at GG two back. 5-1? +4lbs. No thanks. (I\'ll be watching the TAP horses perform in KY with a keen eye:).

Kettle River-Figures are a little slow for this field even though he\'s set up to run a new top today. 3 works over the Keeneland surface and a good rider switch. He still needs a big jump from a wide post.

Chief Counsel-Mott/Kent D., 15-1, a great number over a similar surface, a fast work over today\'s strip, 2nd time against stakes company and 2nd time route means I use him. I know the PP isn\'t great but I trust KD will put him in a position early that will help. He\'ll be wide, but at the price, I\'ll take it

P3 and P4
A-5
B-1/4/12
C-2/3

Exactas
Key the 5 over the 1-3-4-12
1-3-4-12 over the 5 saver

Tri
Key 5 over 1-3-4-12
1-3-4-5-12 Box Saver

Super
5/1-3-4-12/1-3-4-12/ALL
1-3-4-12/5/1-3-4-12/ALL
1-3-4-12/1-3-4-12/5/ALL

Good Luck!!!

[nyc1347]

Good lord if speed held today i wouldve had a homerun!  what happened to the one horse?!  PERFECT TRIP and just stopped dead!  geeeeeez!

[Leamas57]

I am not sure what you mean about speed holding. Your horse didn\'t hold, but the winner took the lead and never looked back. It either means that that\'s a special horse (possible) or that your boy couldn\'t handle the pace. The 7 horse ran right with the  winner last time out but this time backed like Michael Jackson on a moonwalk.

Maybe the horse finally ran back to his form of the maiden win at Belmont where he wired \'em on the turf at 1 1/16 in 1.41+. I didn\'t pay enough attention to that little detail the first time through the form or I might have used him instead of my pigs.

Leamas

[nyc1347]

when i meant speed holding i was referring the race to end the way it started.. 1 and 8 around the track.. wouldve been a beautiful thing.. on to the next one!

[Rich Curtis]

NYC1347 wrote:

\"what happened to the one horse?! PERFECT TRIP and just stopped dead! geeeeeez!\"

Plainly, his breeding did him in. He can handle 7F and 9F, but he is poorly bred for the in-between distances.

[magicnight]

Like Bob Uecker! He could handle Koufax. It was all those annoying journeymen who sent him upstairs.

[P-Dub]

Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYC1347 wrote:
>
> \"what happened to the one horse?! PERFECT TRIP and
> just stopped dead! geeeeeez!\"
>
> Plainly, his breeding did him in. He can handle 7F
> and 9F, but he is poorly bred for the in-between
> distances.


You must be joking Rich.

We had a whole thread about this subject and it was proven with facts that breeding doesn\'t matter at all. What is wrong with you???

[nyc1347]

more nonsense..  he ran his TOP and BEST efforts at 8 and 8.5 Furlongs before improving a little bit more the last 2.. after running a top effort he had only 15 days off..  clearly the horse was TIRED running back at this distance today and clearly needed more rest to run his race.  this race was a great example of a BOUNCE.  Its even more clear that they tried to get him in a race off short rest to try to make the derby.   some can run off the short rest and some cant.. this horse as we see couldnt

[Rich Curtis]

I was joking in that post, NYC. My next post will contain the serious nonsense.

[slewzapper]

If it was so clear he was going to bounce, why did you bet him? He needed to run a top to hit the board.

If it was so clear the intention was to get him in the derby, maybe someone should have told them that winning the race would left them about $70K short of getting in? Or maybe they were planning to run next week in the Derby Trial or Withers, won/placed in that start and then run yet again a week later?

Last time I checked, bounce performances didn\'t come with an explanation attached - we infer the cause. You say distance aptitude doesn\'t matter after showing success at two turns, it\'s all about rest and peak performance. Wrong. It exists. Decades of analysis concerning pedigree and distance aptitude show there is a relationship.

Applying data regarding populations to individuals is problematic since exceptions to the rule IS a rule. The relationship is measured as a change from an expected distribution, so exceptions (though a minority) exist. Exactly how much distance aptitude influences any given young, developing horse\'s performance as they stretch out against increasingly tougher competition is hard to identify, let alone quantify. Just because it\'s hard to project as a factor doesn\'t lead to a conclusion it does\'t matter. It\'s a percentage play, like everything in this game.

[nyc1347]

I wagered on him the SAME reason i also wagered on the 8.  Most of these horses were coming off of short rest with forward moving lines and I had to take a stand somewhere.  If I thought all the horses who had low rest wouldve all bo0unced I wouldnt have played the race.  I played the race because even at 6-1ML there was huge value underneath and it seemed like a good spot to play a few dollars.


Your decades of analyis comment has nothing to do with what I am saying with horses going the distance.  ALL and I mean ALLLLLLLLLL of these horses who are running have ALLLL outrun their respective pedigree/sire numbers by leaps and bounds and by many many points.  I have said that once we got passed THAT idea then we can move forward and start analyzing each horse as an Individual rather than a whole of other horses that are meaningless (being that they are not in that race) on THAT specific day.  

There are countless examples of what I mean such as..  On a given race day, I am not concerned about an average sire number of 15 being compared to a 10... on that day the sire avg 10 horse may be significantly slower than the 15 horses avg.   Your decades and decades of analytical whatever has no bearing on the SPECIFIC factors of ONE given race... such as time off for each horse, post positions, pattern, etc. on that day.

Theres only one way I can say that it would be meaningful and makes sense to be a pedigree handicapper is if you have a LARGE sample AT THIS LEVEL (lets say an 8 thoro number or faster, as an example).. with minimum horses and starts from a sire... then you have a certain percentage in a betting perspective that sticks out and then you want to play that wager.  Such as a WIn % or whatever with a positive ROI.. IF you stay consistent with THAT angle then fine.. but in my opinion its spliting hairs cause THEY ALL have outrun their sire figures anyway.  

Once you get to THIS level its a whole new ballgame and that stat figure from 400 horses and 2000 starts (as an example) plays no role whatsoever in what you are handicapping on that day because only a SMALL sample of a BIGGER sample is being played that day.. such as %3 of horses from that sire ran 8s or better (or whatever, as an example)..  you would have to KNOW what horses from that BIG sample outran their percentages within the sireto be able to come up with a much more accurate percentage, ROI and outlook on the correct odds you are looking for in a given race.

I dont think this exists and at THIS level of racing it should so whoever wants to wager pedigree has much more accurate information then including the horses who also ran thoro numbers of 28 in there that cant even compare.

My suggestion is to make a page on here for all sires.  Once that is done allow a user to refine a search to how many times a horse ran lets say an 8 or better (or any number they choose) within that sire and what his percentages were along with ROI.. and also allow refine for surfaces and distances and a bunch of categories. At that point you will be able to see the REAL deal of who is running from SIRES at THIS level.  Good luck with with getting JB to do all that lol   Without an overall more idea (smaller sample of the huge sample) ALL these horses on this level are on the same boat and have out run their respective pedigrees by multiple points.  

Everyone is different and i respect all your opinions but to me I buy thorographs for a reason.... I think its the best to take an individual race and set it aside by itself with all the factors within it and make an opinion solely on the factors within what each horse is running on that day.  ALL horses race in different conditions every day, have different rest, factors, etc. that we can see on that day and not on 2000 other starts (just an average number including horses not even close to what horses at this level play)..u know what i mean?  But... whatever works for you guys.

[slewzapper]

You don\'t care about pedigree historical data when handicapping a given race, because it doesn\'t apply to these accomplished horses? Do you think TG data is produced from stakes winners only? Do you think they throw out the horses that run those 28s?

I (and others on this board) don\'t \"pedigree handicap\" - we recognize it being a factor to consider, along with all the other things considered, when handicapping a race at a new distance for the runners involved (especially as they have often been stretching out prior)...you keep saying it means nothing, they\'re all physiologic freaks so they can go 8, 8.5, 9, 10F in top company like an EverReady Bunny. It might not matter to the degree some make it out to be, that other factors are more relevant (this is getting monotonous, sorry), but saying it\'s a nonexistent factor because you can alibi every subpar performance in another language is stretching credibility.

There is good data regarding pedigree influence on distance aptitude, AND IT IS BASED UPON GRADED STAKES WINNERS ONLY, not horses that run \"28 TGs\"; if you want to prove that top horses don\'t follow pedigree/distance aptitude relationships  (again, it\'s a distribution, not 100%), then YOU provide that data.

To repeat: the data relating pedigree and distance aptitude is based upon populations of graded stakes horses, precisely the population you claim it doesn\'t apply to; TG data used for sire indexes and Thoro-patterns uses all class levels of runners in its data.

You can start with Teuflesberg, the horse you stated you bet along with Street Sense,  presumably because of his good-looking pattern. Breeding for the trip suspect (Johannesburg/Devil\'s Bag mare). Close at 9F (Blue Grass) when they went 51.2 for a half/1:16.3 for 6F. In the Derby he may have run to his predicted pattern - for a mile. He ran to his pedigree for the mile and a quarter. Of course he bounced...you would say he needed another week; another view would say he bounced on both stretchouts at two, overextended himself at 8-8.5F leading up to a irrelevantly-paced race at 9F, and showed his true self at 10F and every race he ran thereafter.