Illinois Derby

[Leamas57]

I am curious if this might be the ROW this week. I am also interested in any ideas on how to manage the surface switch here from various tracks. Seem OP horses like it and polytrackers from across town do okay on it.

Thoughts?

Leamas

[TGAB]

I have no idea now what the ROTW may be. Have to look at the fields, conditions, and with hope the odds before a determination is made.

[ROBERT49]

Just started looking at the pp\'s that just came out. Take a look at Backtalk. He shows a work at FG on 3/25 of 1:09.6 B for 6f. If correct, that is unreal.Also, jock Mena is 4/4 on this horse. Pretty interesting.

[FrankD.]

The 1:09.60 b was the fastest of 5 that day at 6f at Fair Grounds, even if the time was off a bit ? It\'s a sharp move by a horse whose pedigree I love stretching out. The dam Apasionata Sonata has produced 3 foals 2 have made it to the race track this one and a Pulpit named Bsharpsonata that ain\'t too shabby !

I just watched the reply of the Delta race, granted it was a 4 horse field on a bull ring track but the leader went 48 and 1:14 loose and Backtalk was slammed on the first turn and pinned on the rail. He tipped out 5w and ran him down in the stretch. Throw out the poly race at Keeneland and a very wide bad ride trip by the Mig in the Hopeful and he\'s 5 for 5 with enough graded earnings already to make the gate at Churchill.

I loved this horse since I saw him overcome a lot of traffic in the Sanford and Mena does seem to fit him like a glove. He\'s been slammed around a bit already in a couple of races just like he\'ll be in a 20 horse derby field. Plenty of speed and stamina top and bottom for this guy.

[shanahan]

ROBERT49 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just started looking at the pp\'s that just came
> out. Take a look at Backtalk. He shows a work at
> FG on 3/25 of 1:09.6 B for 6f. If correct, that is
> unreal.Also, jock Mena is 4/4 on this horse.
> Pretty interesting.


I can only think of the look on Barclay Tagg\'s face if one of his worked this fast before a big race...oh, that\'s right, funnyCide did, didn\'t he? (:58 before the Belmont)...I htink it\'s too fast and the race was left on the workout track.  I mean, that\'s fast!

[nyc1347]

i dont consider workouts an indication of anything..  (yes here i go again) lol.. maybe the horse was just feeling good that day who knows..it was a fast work but it can be a great indication as much as a bad one.

I remember a horse like Hard Spun did the same thing heading into the Derby a few years ago and ran a great race..although he did lose the race it was a new 2 point top.. a horse like Funny Cide ran an effort hes never done before 3 weeks prior to the belmont and had every reason to bounce a few points with little rest and going a mile and a half.

[nyc1347]

As for as my analysis for this race..  I see in my opinion either...


A)   American Lion getting out to the lead and wiring this field (small chance) with Yawanna Twist running from the back to be best of the rest or...

B)  American Lion getting out to the lead with another horse, get tired and do nothin but stop like a rat in the stretch..  thus leaving the faster fractions for Yawanna Twist to run into and win or..

C)  Another horse may be stalking who may have a jump on Yawanna Twist and bust a move down the stretch with Yawanna Twist still being Best of the Rest and not missing by much.

3 scenarios.. and from seeing all of these horses run all include Yawanna Twist coming from behind closing and unless they snail thru fraction which is not likely with AL up front as usual..i think Yawanna Twist has the best shot here and will most likely have the best trip of them all overall! AL has also proven the last 2 races that he NEEDS the lead and coming from the rail i doubt the tactics would be anything different.  Tricky Dicky needs to run well too to get in the big race with YT and AL seems to have blown his load last year running too fast too early (as i had mentioned in a ROTW several weeks ago).. im in bigger this race.. $2500 to show here and may dabble on a pick 4 starting in race 6 with YT as a key in the 7th!  Good Luck!

[Leamas57]

Thanks, Alan:

It seems like the kind of race you have picked in the past--without knowing how you decide.

Leamas

[Leamas57]

I am very interested in Game Ball here. He has great bloodlines and he can benefit from a hot pace--which he might not get as this race seems to have a lot of closers. Even though BT has speed, he has won from off pace and perhaps AL will go out again.

This horse won after spotting the field 12 or 15 lengths at Tampa with a big late move and sometimes a horse that can run there can go faster on a different surface. I will need more info as the time was only mildly impressive (141+ for 1m40), but I don\'t know the bias or the figs though he looped 5 wide to do it. However, with Saint Ballado on bottom and Sky Mesa on top, this guy might be a sleeper at a price.

Leamas

[Lost Cause]

From DRF...

...At least as noteworthy as Backtalk\'s comeback win was his final Illinois Derby work last Thursday at Fair Grounds: Six furlongs in 1:09.60. That was easily the fastest six-furlong work of the winter in New Orleans, and would have been among the fastest six-furlong races of the Fair Grounds meeting. Cash Refund went a meet-best 1:09.13 winning the Duncan Kenner Stakes last Saturday.

\"I\'ve never seen anything like it,\" said Billy Pettingill, who has worked as a Fair Grounds clocker for more than 25 years. \"I thought there was something wrong with my watch. The only thing I had anywhere near that was a horse called Apprentice for Billy Badgett, who worked in 1:10 flat.\"

The Apprentice work took place in 1993. A more typical high-end six-furlong Fair Grounds work would be something like 1:12. Pettingill said he got Backtalk in splits of 34.60 seconds for three furlongs, 46.60 for four furlongs, and 57.60 for five furlongs. Amazingly, he also timed Backtalk going out another furlong past the wire in 11.60.

\"He was still galloping well when he came back to the half-mile pole,\" said Pettingill.

But the breeze left trainer Tom Amoss more worried than impressed.

\"There\'s no question he did a lot in the work,\" Amoss said. \"Although he hasn\'t shown any outward signs that would cause concern, that kind of thing often doesn\'t show up till a race. That can by a very dulling work.\"

Amoss said Backtalk worked so fast because two horses used as company broke off for the drill showing unexpected speed.

\"He was supposed to be six or eight lengths behind,\" Amoss said. \"It wound up being 20.\"

Backtalk, it should be noted, passed those workmates at the sixteenth pole. The jury\'s still out on whether that was a hint of things to come in Saturday\'s race - or whether Backtalk left his race back in New Orleans.

[Ill-bred]

Blinkers off and first-time dirt could bode well for American Lion.

If he\'s the second or third choice I like him.

[miff]

AM rank and grabby on synth, may be much more relaxed on dirt.


Mike

[Michael D.]

not a strong race. won\'t even make the C-A-C cut.

Yawanna Twist isn\'t really bred to get 9f, but ran well at 1 1/16 last, finishing strong. should get a good trip on, or just off the pace. always nice to have Dutrow in your corner. and it might be wise to look at the 2 that tried to close from the back in that San Filepe. given the way the top 3 sprinted away after the slow pace (3 pretty quick colts), Dave In Dixie and Stephen\'s Got Hope had no chance. the latter is difficult to read, but Dave is bred better for dirt, and gets stamina from the dam. don\'t love the plodding style over the Haw course, but I don\'t love any of these horses.

I\'m gonna take a shot with Dave In Dixie here, save with Yawanna Twist.

hope to have more to offer on the other races.