Some early thoughts on the Wood on Sat. - Schoolyard Dreams!

[covelj70]

I know it unusual to handicap a race before the entires are drawm and the sheets are posted but

a) we know the 4 relevant horses who plan to run in the race and we know what the sheets of those 4 look like from the derby futures package and

b) I have had a bad few days on the horse ownership side of things as I had to put one of my 2 year olds down yesterday due to a breathing issue that I thought we had fixed and that was on the heels of one of my fillies bowing a tendon last week so it\'s theraputic for me to be thinking about something else.  Oh by the way, the foal that I had over the weekend isn\'t nursing properly so she\'s in the clinic....owning horses is awsome, just awesome.

At any rate, I digress.

Bottom-line is that I think Schoolyard Dreams could upset this Wood at a decent price in a small field.


Eskendereya will obviously go off as a heavy favorite but I think Esk is likely to pair up his last figure at best and he\'s even a bit of a candidate to bounce off the big effort from the FOY.  If he pairs or even moves back slightly, Schoolyard Dreams has an awesome pattern and is poised to move forward to a number that could get the job done.

Schoolyard Dreams got down to a good number as a 2 year old before bouncing.  He came back to make a solid new top before pairing that number in the Tampa Bay Derby.  He has every license to move forward in this race off that pattern and if he does and Esk does no better than pair, let alone move backward, he would be vulnerable.

There are other factors to consider as well such as Pletcher maybe not having E completely cranked for this, Schoolyard Dreams needing a first or 2nd in the race to have enough graded money and a positive jockey switch to Ramon.  Also, SD\'s is working lights out, see his last 4f move in 46 and change.

The two others that matter in here are Awesome Act and Jackson Bend.

Awesome Act was very very impressive in winning the Gotham, especially considering the ship and quartentine right ahead of the race.  However, like E, he already improved quite a bit from his 2 year old top making another big move forward in this one less likely.  He too may not be fully cranked for this as his connections seem very much to have their eye on a bigger prize. Also, its still not clear what was behind him in the Gotham. It wouldn\'t shock me if he won on Sat but I think there are a good number or reasons to play against as the 2nd choice.

Finally, there\'s Jackson Bend.  I have been disappointed by him so far this year as he got down to a great number as a 2 year old and had all the rest he needed to recover from that effort after switching to Zito.  However, despite the proper handling and the positive trainer switch, he failed to move forward in the FOY after what was a respectable number in the Holy Bull.  That Holy Bull race should have set him up for a pair in the FOY but instead he went backwards again which isn\'t a good sign.  Maybe we can give him one more try on a different track given what should be good odds, the fact that he does have very fast figures to run back to and that Zito always seems to pull rabbits out of his hat.  I prefer Schoolyard Dreams on top but craizer things have happened than to see this guy win this.

I know it\'s early but thoughts?

[BitPlayer]

covelj70 -

Some other considerations regarding Schoolyard Dreams:

Does he want to go this far?  He has lost ground in the stretch in both of his last two races (both 8.5f).  He may have an excuse in his last, having been moved (too?) early and wide.  Ryan claims he lost focus after getting to the front, but he never got to the front in the Sam Davis and still lost ground to Rule.

What\'s with all the wide trips?  Is he one of those horses who won\'t run inside?

[covelj70]

Bit,

Thanks alot for those thoughts.  I hadn\'t considered the \"not wanting to run inside thing\" but it\'s a legit thing to think about.

There were other good horses that stopped running if they made the lead too early.  Perfect Drift was one.  He lost the Woodward because of that one year.  Made the lead at the 16th pole but starting gawking around if I remember that right.

[mjellish]

I hear you on ESK and AA in the Wood.

AA is a very tough horse to figure here.  He ran often and on short rest as a two year old, all of them on the grass or synth.  In the BC JUV Turf he was compromised by a wide trip on the second turn while trying to rally into a slow early pace, yet he rallied pretty strong and made up 5 length in the stretch.  That race turned out to be his two year old top, but the horse isn\'t really bred for the lawn and the Sire Profile is more or less neutral on Synth.  So I\'m not sure what to make of his two year old \"top.\"  He then gets a layoff, shows up in the Gotham with no published works for his first try on dirt, makes his way through traffic on the turn and promptly goes right by the field with ease.  That wasn\'t exactly the toughest field, with Yawana Twist and Nacho Friend taking the runner up spots.  But he did dust them quite easily.  Now he comes back on a little over 3 weeks rest, which ordinarily may not be enough but like I said, the Gotham looked pretty easy for him.  If I had to guess I think he would pair or run a new top.  But it\'s tough to say which way this one is going to go without more info, especially about his latest works.

I too have my doubts about ESK in this race.  I also have some doubts about him in KY.  He\'s 3/3 on dirt but he didn\'t run much at two, with his 2 year old top coming in only his second race.  I really liked his 3 year old debut in an ALWN1X race at GP, and we all know what he did in the FOY.  That being said, I still would like to see him overcome some trouble or show a mid-race move, a quick turn of foot that he can sustain through the stretch.  If you look closely at his running line, although he\'s tracked the leaders closely in all his dirt races he hasn\'t every really run fast early.  His half mile times in his 3 dirt races are roughly 48, 47.6, and 47.8.  So in a faster field he is likely to be much further back early.  That may not hurt him too much in a 7 horse field in the Wood, but it could be a big concern in 20 horse field.  When you watch the FOY, you can see how the cheap speed really quit and ESK more or less just inherited the lead without having to make any type of move.  The positive is that he then ran on powerfully through the stretch and was drawing away from the field with every stride.  He also galloped out extremely well, and it appears he may be able to run all day.  That being said, I don\'t know what Pletcher\'s intent is going to be here.  I wouldn\'t think he would want an all out, gut wrenching effort.  But the horse needs earnings to make the field in KY.  I\'ve heard his last work was very good, with a strong double gallop out and horse seems full of energy.  So I would anticipate that since he needs the earnings he will come close to pairing up his last.

I also like Schoolyard Dreams, but I\'m not sure how confident I could be in betting him in this spot.  His pattern looks very healthy.  He only ran twice as a two year old and it looks like he still has room for development.  The rider switch is also a big positive in my opinion.  But this one still seems a little green to me.  And he still has AA and ESK to deal with... but, that was a VERY quick turn of foot he showed making that wide move in the Tampa Derby, and he sustained it quite well down the stretch, so he\'s obviously got talent.

Jackson Bend strikes me as more of miler.  I think he winds up off the Derby trail after this race.  But Zito has been training him for stamina, of late.  We\'ll see if it helps.  You never know with these young horses.

In any case, the Wood doesn\'t strike me as very good race to bet because I have no idea how to read AA, I\'m not entirely sure about Pletcher\'s intentions, and as the probable favorites both AA and ESK might be the real deal.  Add to that that if Jackson Bend gets an easy front running trip and fires his best off those stamina building drills he may be good enough to hang on for piece anyway.  He\'s obviousy pretty gutty.  

If I were forced to bet the Wood, however, I would probably play SD to win if I could get 5-1 or so, and I would play him over/under AA and ESK in the EX.  I would take a stand against Jackson Bend, and that whole play would be designed to get the \"dead\" money coming in on him.  But my confidence level would be rather low and I would be more or less just screwing around, which has it\'s place from time to time.

[covelj70]

awesome thoughts MJ, thanks as always.

I am playing in the NHC online qualifier this weekend so I will have to have an opinion on this one one way or the other so this definitely helps.

Thanks again so much.

[alm]

Thanks for this post...very helpful.

One thing though...Pletcher has for years now won far more than his share of Derby prep races...only to have most of his horses run flat in the Derby.  Ordinary people such as you or me would assume that he has learned something from this, but here he is again cranking his stock for the preps, just as always.

Witness the results so far this season.

That being said, my guess is that his horse will be wound tightly for the Wood...he may or may not win it, but he can and he will likely be trying.  Unless this is the ONE, he\'ll crash and burn in the Derby, too.

I think that a trainer has to be old to learn lessons, like Lucien Lauren was when he prepped Secretariat the way that he did.  From an awful Wood effort we got a Triple Crown winner and 3 track records.

[Michael D.]

re Esky - the earnings thing is interesting. the horse is on the bubble with 150k, and the outfit is bankrupt. I\'m guessing Zayat is on edge about getting left out. under these circumstances, would Pletcher try and finesse a slight regression to save something for the Derby? a decent amount of risk there. I\'d say probably not. and Johnny V is not fond of the finesse ride.

Carnivore is the one that interests me. Giant\'s Causeway out of Biogio\'s Rose. 3rd dam by a Wood winner (useless, I know, but interesting). has shown some speed, and worked in :58.3 on Mar 21. might have had more to offer last. probably my longshot key here.

and sorry to hear about the trouble with the horses Jim. tough game indeed. stay disciplined. you\'ll get a great young runner before long.

[albany]

Covelj70:

I agree that Schoolyard Dreams has a chance to score at a price.

I was impressed with his dramatic, but ill-advised, middle move in the Tampa Bay Derby. He put down a 23 3/5 internal 1/4 on the turn. That had to impact him as he forged to the lead. Yet, he showed gameness as the others came to him. The Tampa Bay Derby was an improvement over his previous start where he ran a good second to the now underrated Rule. I believe his sire-line will allow him to make the Wood distance.

The move to Ramon will help his chances, but hurt his price a bit. I would love to see him draw inside and stalk. He could then use his explosive turn of foot in the lane rather than on the turn.

I think his 46 4/5 Tampa Bay work on 3/27 was outstanding. He worked on even terms with his talented stablemate, Musket Man, who will appear in the Carter. The next fastest work on that day was 48 2/5. The 46 4/5 time was the fastest of 352 Tampa Bay 1/2 mile works from 3/19 through 3/30! The next fastest was 47 4/5.

Good luck.

[Leamas57]

Thanks for those insights, gents. The main track at Aqueduct has always been somewhat fast, but the inner track (--usually faster?) has been favoring closers lately. It might rain, but if it doesn\'t I am wondering if the speed will carry as well as at GP. I am thinking not...

Leamas

[big18741]

Ballsy move passing on the easier Hawthorne spot given the earnings situation.

Played him some at 44-1 in Pool 3 so I\'m hoping to thread the needle on Saturday.Exacta finish and a small new top that gets him into the Derby mix.

Only negatives I can see might be May foal and sprinter/miler pedigree on the bottom.

[ajkreider]

Seems to me that if they in it for Derby cash and a G1 in the breeding book, they\'d have run the Florida Derby.  That race was looking to have a field of six until Esk was taken out of consideration.  He would have been a huge favorite, and placing would have gotten them in the derby.

The fact that they opted for a couple more weeks of rest for what sure looks like a tougher spot says to me that they\'re doing what they believe to be in the best interests of the horse.