Going back to the well with Mission Impazible in La. Derby

[covelj70]

As the great TGAB once said at one of the Saratoga seminars, never be afraid to come back to a horse you liked in the previous race if the same logic still applies to the first time you played the horse.

To that end, I am going to go with Mission Impazible at anything close to the 8-1 morning line tomorrow in the La. Derby.

I touted him to no avail in his last race at Oaklawn but he ran a good number in that race, pairing a top that makes him very live here but he was 3w4w in that one and he finished 4th facing horses that were much faster than these.  

He comes in with the proper spacing, draws inside, gets a jock who knows what to do and should only improve as he stretches out being by Unbridled Song.  

Among the others that are fast,

A Little Warm is picking a tough spot for his first time going two turns so I will have to play against him running his number stretching out

Ron the Greek ran a buried good one last time but has already improved alot which makes another big jump up unlikely and he would need that given his running style which will very likely cost him alot of ground.

Discreetly Mine seems primed to move forward here and looms the main threat as I see it to an MI upset but DM will be the favorite and I will try to beat him on top but likely protect with an exacta with him on top of MI

Stay Put ran a good one last time that is buried and a repeat of that would put him in this but he drew outside and would have to work out a trip, usuable at the right price and/or in a tri with DM and MI

Wow Wow Wow has one number that would make him competitive put he has already run alot this year without alot of spacing and he has shipped all over making a return to his top unlikely

Mister Mari Gras is ok but would need to step up several points to contend which is unlikely given the stretch out and the post

Backtrack ran a very fast race last time but is another who is stretching out for the first time and who drew poorly so I will have to let him beat me.

Drosselmeyer was the big loser in the draw and that will compromise what would have other wise been a good chance.  I am surprised they haven\'t scratched him from here given the post and entered one of the races next week where he would be very live with the right draw given a very live pattern as he is poised for a new top here.

The play is Mission Impassible on top at anthing close to the 8-1 monring line with Discreetly Mine and Stay Put the ones to use for the exacta and trifect.

Thoughts?

[jack72906]

Thanks Jim. My thoughts?? Well, I liked MI in the SW and hated the post, so I will be using him as the key. Hate saying this but I like his.....pattern, he shouldn\'t be compromised from a pace standpoint and he has a great PP.

There are a lot of horses in the field that look like they\'re sitting on a forward move. With Drosselmeyer drawn outside in a race that looks to be filled with pace, the exotics could be big.

Hottep-Should improve with the inside draw (pp12 last time) and he comes from off the pace. Being on the rail should save ground and be in position coming into the long stretch.

MI-Key

Fly Down-ALW to graded stakes is a concern, BUT he is one of only two horses in the field that has won at this distance. He\'s second off the layoff and do we need to talk about Zito runners in the spring? He also closes. I like Fly Down underneath.

The Program-Can he jump up first dirt? Definitely, but this seems like a last ditch effort to see if this horse has..IT. I\'m staying away.

A Little Warm-Short price on a horse that has yet to go 2 turns. Pass.

Ron The Greek-Tough call IMO. Has a much better PP this time and he paired his top last time out. I\'m going to play RTG to regress a bit here. Two big efforts from outside PPs. Does he have anything left? Price will probably be short also.

Discreetly Mine-All I\'ve heard about this horse is that \"he can run all day\". First 3yo effort was over a sloppy track, he has 1 pt. of development over his 2yo top and shouldn\'t be compromised from a pace standpoint. I\'m using him.

Island Soul-Excellent late runner. Before the Risen Star there was a lot of talk about Hottep before the Risen Star and Albarado rode him that day. He takes the mount on IS who looks to improve on the 6. I\'m tossing the last effort on the slop. Underneath if anything because of the big jump in class.

Stay Put- I like the horse but the bad the bad post draw is a problem again. Good pattern, bad post draw. Underneath.

Wow Wow Wow-I like the bullet workout last week at OP and should be up front with DM if not on the lead. I\'m tossing the AQI effort and think that this horse runs a better race today. DM will run him into the ground IMO. If the track tightens up and is speed favoring I\'d use it underneath.

Mister Mardi Gras-Great pattern IMO, but the HUGE jump to Stakes company and bad post compromises his chances even more IMO.

Backtrack-Another horse that can close but 1st 2 turn race, jump in class, and bad PP= no play.

Drosselmeyer-Probably a move forward but a short price, bad post again means toss.


I\'ll be keying MI with Fly Down, Discreetly Mine, and Stay Put. I\'ll probably find a way to use Island Soul in some exotics somewhere.

Good Luck everyone.

[Michael D.]

I\'m with you Jim. Mission Impaz should get an inside trip here with Maragh from post 2. fast enough on figures. 10-1. Also like the popular Stay Put. picks them off if things fall apart late.

key MI, use SP.

[albany]

Nice job!

[shanahan]

had many underneath him...except the 5....ouch.  my wife now asks \"why didn\'t you have the 5?\"  You gotta love it...she\'s still living.

[smalltimer]

My favorite is after a race when my grandson says, \"you lost.\"

[TGAB]

Nice call Jim.

[covelj70]

Thanks Alan and everyone.

Best of all, because NYCOTB is going out of business before the Derby and that\'s who I have my phone account with, I don\'t think I am going to have a chance to give back any of today\'s profits with yet another Derby Futures Bet tomorrow.  That would be just my luck to hit a derby futures bet that I called in over the phone only to have NYCOTB bankrupt so I can\'t collect....lol

Thanks again,

Jim

[mjellish]

Nice Pick Jim!  Nice Mutuel ticket too.  Hope you had a good chunk on him.

[dannyboy135]

Congrats jim.  I had a bit on him myself. Part owner is a close friend. Unfortunately I had to stay and take care of the mares and babies today while my little brother traveled to N.O.  the owner has been part of a guys group that has been going to the ky derby for 30 years now. Might have to include the split tails this year but it will still  be special.  I\'ll stay in touch.

I lurk, but seldomly post. I do much appreciate the current board buzz.  NYC I quite like your post don\'t let the crowds intimidate.