San Luis Rey Handicap!

[nyc1347]

1 - Dynamic Range -  ultra consistent and while looking at his pattern i saw those last 2 figures i was wondering why this horse looked a little off to me.  Looks like that 6 top effort THREE races back has cause this one to move backwards twice and with only 27 days off id expect the same.  I wouldnt play this one until he made some kind of forward move again.

2 - High Court Drama -   running better as the gappyness continues but it takes the horse a long time to get back to a top number.  Bounced 3 points last out and with 55 days off has plenty of rest to run some kind of effort.  Doesnt seem like it will be a top effort so i will say it be consistent in the 4-5 range.  3-1 ML doesnt offer that much value here.  Il pass on a win wager and at most hes a use underneath in exotics.

3 - Bourbon Bay -   nice top last out and at about 4 to 1 it wouldve been a nice play LAST time out.. but this time at a huge favorite with a good chance to bounce I will pass.

4 - Obrigado -  in line with last years efforts but a tad slower with the 4.5 effort.  Getting older and id expect a pair here at best.

5 - Sudden War -  something seems to have gone wrong last year but whatever it was the horse is back to top shape.  id draw a line under both recent 5s and say that hes a new, fresh and healthy horse this year.  the 4 weeks off the pair is very encouraging to me and im expecting a new top here in today race.  6 to 1 is nice odds to do it!

6 - Lease of Life -  quadruple paired 3.75 efforts and has 27 days off.  key thing here is that he hasnt raced a 3rd off the layoff race in forever and when he last did he went backwards 3 points.  even more significant that now hes racing a mile and a half which hes never done before.   Two recent top efforts, ok rest, going this far 1st time and showing a bounce last time this situation happened going shorter will leave me to pass on this one going into tomorrows race.

7 -  Unusual Suspect - after every significant top effort (3-5) this horse flows in the 6-7 range so I will expect that again tomorrow.  That doesnt seem like it will do it so i will pass.

8 - Romp -  consistent within the 6-9 range and too slow with no reason to think he will jump to new efforts here so il pass

9 - Quasicobra -  has gone backwards since that 5 on poly and something seems to have gone way wrong with him.  il pass.

10 - Unusual Smoke -  ran his best turf effort ever 9 days ago and I would think he would need rest after such an effort especially going and mile and a half.  I would use maybe underneath for a little piece but I dont think he will be able to win this one.

overall -  in my opinion, this race seems pretty straight forward.  the two faves are underlays based on the above analysis.  some others are too slow or off form and the only horse i can see that has a great shot to move forward based on rest, being fresh, and pattern is the 5 horse and at 6 to 1, Sudden War is my pick.  Good Luck!

[nyc1347]

$5.20 to show!!!!   =O   lol!!  i love it!  3 ran huge and the 5 probably paired.. everyone else was just terrible other than the 8