If I had to choose between Eskenderya and Rule today....

[covelj70]

....I would choose Rule to win the Derby.

Stritly from a TG perspective, Rule looks alot more like a Derby winner than E does.

Rule got down to a big number as a two year old and then made a slight new top in his first start at 3, a good sign of health.

Most importantly, he still has room left to develop as a 3 year and if he gets the natural development one would expect from a quality 3 year old that has a healthy pattern, he will get down to a number that will likely win the Derby given the figs that this crop is putting up right now.

Now, I can\'t play him at 12-1 in the Futures 6o days out because even if everything I said above is true, you would still get 5-1 or so on him on Derby day so there\'s no reason to play him now but if I was asked to pick one horse to win the Derby right now, regardless of odds, it would be Rule, not E that I would take.

E ran a good last number but a) it\'s not much faster than Rule\'s last, and b) he has already developed alot from 2 to 3 and so he as likely to stay where he is or go backward from here as he is to improve whereas Rule is much more likely to go forward.

thoughts?

[miff]

Cov,

I wonder about Rule\'s running style for the derby vs Esc. Interesting, I have not yet seen the TG figs but Esc is several lengths faster than Rule on Beyer and Rags,might be an edge for you.

Mike

[Michael D.]

I make Esky more likely to win the Derby because of what he overcame in the FOY. He broke from post 8 with a fair amount of speed to his inside, and astutely gained position using his formidable tactical speed and athleticism. He then put his head down a la AP Indy and cruised liked a well oiled machine, never letting up. Rule is big, strong, fast, and is bred to get 9, probably 10 furlongs, but I have no idea how well he is going to finish after battling a big field in a mile and a quarter race two months from now. You can say that for most of the runners, of course, but most offer a better reward than 12-1.

[covelj70]

Mike and Mike,

Good thoughts, thanks alot.

It\'s tough because alot of what I believe is based on who is likely to move forward more from here E or Rule and I think that\'s Rule based on their respective patterns and development so far.  However, it\'s not really a view that can be expressed in the futures b/c 12-1 on Rule just isn\'t big enough.

So, another question for you guys and everyone else.  What price would you need to get this weekend IF you believed like I did that Rule was more likely than E to win.  Would 15-1 be enough or would it have to be 20-1.  Sadly, I think both of those are unlikely.

[miff]

Cov,

Futures,a most difficult play for me. I would only play bombs very early on trying to guess/anticipate who could step up big off of their 2yr old form. After the preps begin, most of the value is gone, everybody sees something.

Good Luck


Mike

[Michael D.]

While all of the relevant angles are probably baked into the cake when it comes to the Pletcher runners, a Rule vs Esky stand will be worth something if you are correct. I haven\'t seen a lot of guys with Rule as their top pick. If they both run in the Fla Derby, that might be a better spot to take the swing, as you won\'t have the Pletcher Derby record risk to deal with. Esky will be the huge favorite.

[covelj70]

Mike and Mike,

Thanks again to you both for your thoughts.

You guys should start a talk show called \"Mike and Mike\"...oh wait, we already have one of those....too bad!

thanks again!

[ajkreider]

I think part of the reason people prefer Esk is the breeding. Many seem convinced he should get better as he goes longer, whereas (as already mentioned) 10F looks to be about Rule\'s limit.

Don\'t know jack about breeding myself - just going on others\' opinions, here.

As far as the futures, they seem like bad bets generally.  You have to play a bomb to make it worthwhile, but then you really are gambling.  Might as well put it on red 20.

They have a nice breakdown of the payouts for the past 10 Derby winners at different pool stages here.

Derby Futures

[Rick B.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> However, it\'s not really a view that can be
> expressed in the futures b/c 12-1 on Rule just
> isn\'t big enough.
>
> So, another question for you guys and everyone
> else.  What price would you need to get this
> weekend IF you believed like I did that Rule was
> more likely than E to win.  Would 15-1 be enough
> or would it have to be 20-1.  Sadly, I think both
> of those are unlikely.

I\'d like to offer some mild dissent.
 
If you really believe today that Rule is the most likely Derby winner in 8 weeks, I feel like you have to get something down on him now at, yes, 12-1.

Why? Because if any of the other top contenders don\'t make it to the starting gate, down, down, down goes your Derby day price on Rule. If Rule wins the Derby and pays $9.00, you\'ll feel awfully foolish about passing on him at $26.00 only two months earlier. It\'s hard enough to select the Derby winner on the day of the race -- if you select the winner this far in advance, my God, you have to get something for it other than hollow bragging rights.
 
Maybe you could use the 12-1 as a hedge.

My Derby Day bankroll is usually $1500 - $2000, so if I liked Rule and could get 12-1 today, I\'d throw $100 on him now. If he makes it to the gate in 8 weeks, I\'m on a semi-freeroll: he still has to win for me to cash, of course, but THEN I can shoot for the moon in the exotics with Rule on top and / or underneath...or play against him if I favor some other horse at even longer odds, without having to worry about Rule biting my ass.

Locking up something on your \"now\" horse early gives you decent options on the big day if you are right, and if you are wrong you still have a decent chance to win it back, so long as we don\'t have to come up with a Find That Turd or some other nonsense.

[ajkreider]

Though, interestingly, 2 of the last 10 derby winners had bigger payouts on derby day than they did on their pool 3 odds, and 5 others were only a couple points worse (e.g. 3-1 instead of 5-1).

Only Funny Cide, Charismatic, and War Emblem would have had significantly higher payouts, and it\'s not like they paid badly on derby day anyway.

Says wait, unless the odds are very long.

[Rick B.]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Though, interestingly, 2 of the last 10 derby
> winners had bigger payouts on derby day than they
> did on their pool 3 odds, and 5 others were only a
> couple points worse (e.g. 3-1 instead of 5-1).
>
> Only Funny Cide, Charismatic, and War Emblem would
> have had significantly higher payouts, and it\'s
> not like they paid badly on derby day anyway.
>
> Says wait, unless the odds are very long.

All correct, and I just checked the new Churchill pool: 7-1 on Rule. Ugh, no good. Rule was 18-1 on Monday 3/1 at Wynn -- I suppose that\'s gone, too.

[Rick B.]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All correct, and I just checked the new Churchill
> pool: 7-1 on Rule.

6:00 PM CST, ~$33K in the pool, Rule is 22-1.

Playable?

[ajkreider]

If you think he\'s gonna end up being the favorite, then you probably have to.

[mjellish]

As a rule of thumb I am firm believer in form cycles, bounce theory, development, etc.  But I also think it is important to look at more than just the numbers when analyzing them.  I think looking at how a figure is earned, and what happened in the race, can often be EXTREMELY important in trying to project where a horse is really at in terms of development.

In Eskendereya\'s case, his first race at 2 came on the lawn at Saratoga, most likely because he is bred to like the grass and Pletcher wanted to get him in a 2 turn race, which can be tough to come by in NY for 2 year olds in the fall.  In his debut ESK ran a credible second after rating in mid pack and closing in the stretch.  But Pletcher must have seen enough in the race and in the mornings because one month later, for his next race, ESK was shipped over to Belmont for the 150k Pilgrim Stakes.  On race day this stakes race came off the grass and was switched to 1 mile on a good main track.  And for his first race on real dirt, ESK sat patiently behind horses before splitting the field on the turn.  When asked in the stretch, he then powered away from a short 5 horse field to an easy 7 length win and galloped out very strongly.  To me, this race and the way he was working leading up to it was a clear indicator that he may actually prefer dirt.  The strong gallop out also seemed to indicate that added ground would only help him, and I pegged this guy as one to watch for improvement down the line.

His final start at two came in the Breeder\'s Cup Juv on the Poly at SA.  You could say that he bounced.  But to me this race was a complete throw out as he encountered trouble on the first turn and didn\'t seem to take to the Poly at all.

The reason I say all of this is that I don\'t think we can really look back too closely at ESK two year old numbers and assess how much development he has left in him, because we really never got to see him run his \"true\" 2 year old top on a fast, dirt track around 2 turns.  This is a classically bred, slow developing horse who has gained valuable experience and is beginning to put it all together.  He is now being raced under ideal conditions that suit his footing and distance preferences.  I don\'t think he has come close to peaking yet.  The FOY was only a tip off of what may be yet to come.

Now I am not saying that this is the Derby winner.  It\'s still way to early and I would feel much better about ESK if he shows that he can overcome trouble somehow, weave around horses, make two moves in a race or gut out a hard fought photo.  I am just trying to make my point about there being more to 2 year old tops than just looking at their sheets and taking the numbers at face value.  We have to consider them beneath the context of what a horse was being asked or allowed to do at the age of two.

I\'ve said this here before, but for the sake of making my derby day easy, my personal hope is that ESK goes in the FL Derby, draws the 12 post, gets hung out 4-5W on the first turn, gets stuck behind horses or has to make a middle move, goes wide on the second turn and makes a good showing but gets beat.  His figure comes back close to a pair.  He then ships to KY and trains like a monster and rolls into Churchill as the 4-5th choice at odds of 10-1 or so.  I can then load up on the same horse I have a future bet on and keep things very simple.

I know, it never happens that way.  And there is always the Pletcher numbers factor, which is very real and can\'t be underestimated.  I\'ll probably wind up on Odysseus or Radiohead or god forbid Dublin or whatever else by the time they go in the gate.

[nyc1347]

if lookin at lucky develops naturally as we should expect who is going to stop that monster?!  anyone trying to beat him would have to hope he runs really big prior to the derby and bounce or just not run well coming out this year.   doubt the not running well part especially since he was able to come back with no rest and reacted (im assuming) in the $750,00 cashcall race at hollywood park but still won!