A Wild and Lucky Dispute in the ROTW

[derby1592]

I have to echo most of the TG analysis. A rested Lukas horse with speed on the rail in the Lex is clearly a danger but I just cannot believe it will be that much of a secret. I don\'t see this horse going off at anywhere near the morning line. Also, this is a speed-filled race and Scrimshaw will have to be sent from the rail as will Trust N Luck from the far outside so the pace is likely to be very hot. I know Kee has a speed/rail bias but I don\'t know if that will be enough for these two to survive the likely hot pace. Both also have suspect lines and could easily X if the pace is hot.

Minister\'s Wildcat should get the ideal stalking/rail trip and I loved him heading into the SA Derby (was very disappointed when he scratched late) and I still like him a lot in this race. He looks slow coming in but he has the perfect Drysdale spring-3yo line and comes in very fresh off a spectacular work (particularly, for a Drysdale horse) and he gets first time blinkers (a move Drysdale seems to be making with a lot of his horses right now). The morning line seems low and disappointing but I still think he is decent value even at 7/2 (I know TG would disgree) and I would not be surprised to see his odds drift up higher than that.

Domestic Dispute is the other obvious play but I am concerned about his consistently wide trips particularly at Kee. I did not like him in the SA Derby because of the outside post and Baffert comments that implied that he felt the horse runs better \"outside in the clear.\" I have to believe that he and Bailey are smart enough not to try those tactics at Kee but you never know. DD may just be one of those horses that does not like to run inside of other horses. The pace of the race should set up for him though and he does have a strong line so, if he can finally work a decent trip, he is probably the one to beat. I hope he runs well enough to punch his ticket to the Derby since I do have a future book play on him.  

I pretty much agree with TG on the rest of the horses. I think this race will come down to the pace and track bias (will Scrimshaw and TNT push each other hard early and will the track be favoring the rail and speed) and the trip (will MWC get the perfect trip including first run on the tiring front-runners or will DD finally save some ground and make a big run late). It should be a good race and I will have to see the odds before I decide on the play (I think the post-time odds could be quite different than the very suspect morning line).

I am hoping that I can key MWC because I think he is poised to run a real stunner. Take a look at the sheets for 2 of the likely favorites in the Derby: Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted. They had very similar lines to MWC prior to their big jump and MWC is just as well-bred and well-trained as those two and actually a little faster than they were just prior to their spring jumps. Also, I noted in a previous post regarding the SA Derby about how similar MWC\'s line is to previous Drysdale 3yos that made impressive jumps at this time of the year including FuPeg, Sunday Break and War Chant.

Cheers.

Chris

[tread]

Chris said:
\"I have to believe that he and Bailey are smart enough not to try those tactics at Kee but you never know. DD may just be one of those horses that does not like to run inside of other horses\"

Jerry Bailey said (after the race):
\"It was a good effort,\" said Bailey. \"Bob (Baffert) told me that he (Domestic Dispute) needs to be outside, but you can\'t give up that much ground on this track.\"

I guess they aren\'t that smart.  Hey Baffert, HELLOOOOOOOO, you keep telling riders to keep him outside and he is not winning.  It\'s been so long since he raced on the inside, how do you know he will still react adversely?  Maybe it\'s time for some different strategy to see if it makes a difference, unless you enjoy collecting those 3rd place checks.

Full disclosure:  I have future bets on DD and am pulling my hair out as a racing fan knowing there is a horse out there who has run (presumably) four straight 2s and may not even make it to the derby because on the surface they look like \"poor efforts\" because of the ridculously stupid rides.  Santa Anita, I can somewhat forgive because that track plays fairly to outside horses, but Keeneland is a rail track and everyone knows it.  No excuse for having him 5 wide, no matter what baffert says.

[OPM]

Baffert also has a huge future bet on him!!!! Nw2 at Hol in middle of May!!1

[MO]

Horses are creatures of habit. This horse will never run inside of horses, so stop blaming the jock/trainer and find the only possible contender.............I have him and I\'m keeping him to myself!

[Michael D.]

tread,
it looks as though DD just doesn\'t want to run the classic distances. i think he got his chance in the SA Derby, while getting a decent three wide trip (would you expect a better trip in the Ky Derby?) the horse has had Smith, Espinoza, Flores, Nakatani, and Bailey on his back, and still only has two wins from ten starts. furthermore, his late pace #\'s from his last two SA races were 89 and 75. It\'s not like he was running too wide then closing with a rush, he just wasn\'t finishing.

[tread]

Mike, you are totally missing the point with ground loss.  Those late pace figure you refer to do not take ground loss into effect, and yes, the late pace figure would include most of the last turn (race length minus 6f at races over 1 mile), so the last 3f in the case of the SA derby.  

For the sake of argument, lets say that if a horse runs the last 3f (1980 feet) in 35 seconds (I know they went slower than this in the SA derby) he will receive a late pace figure of 100.  The actual feet per second traveled is 56.57 ft/sec.  Since DD finished 5 lengths back, they compute that it took him 36 seconds to cover (1/5 sec per length) and came up with his late pace number that way.

By their calcualations he ran 55 ft/sec.  But actually, since he was in the 3 path he traveled 2010 feet during that time for a result of 55.83 ft/sec.  A big difference there if you look at the numbers.  So I take those pace numbers with a grain of salt.

The other point is that when racing wide, a horse is trying harder to keep pace with the horses inside him, leaving less in the tank for the stretch.

Mo, prove to me that he \"wont run inside other horses\".  When it was the last time it was attempted, back as a 2yr old when he ran an 8?  He has never went backwards, so if he ever did race inside horses, it certainly didnt affect him much on paper.  He is much more mature now, he may be able to handle it and it certainly is worth a shot.  Yes, he is not good enough to win any grade 1 right now, when you are spotting the field at least 2 points to begin with, you\'d have to be a freak to overcome that.

[Michael D.]

tread,
why bother with the hypothetical figures? figure out how well DD finished in his SA Derby race. I am quite sure you will come to the conclusion that the horse did not finish well.