There's gonna be some deleting.

[TGJB]

Knock it off, guys. Be smart, interesting, funny, or silent.

[bellsbendboy]

I\'ll risk deletion in an attempt to be interesting.

I wrote in response to a post that extolled the virtues of the TG race shapes and the data bagged a big priced winner.  Later, that poster attacked a hall of fame rider for a terrible ride, then admitted to betting a big number on that riders\' horse. The horse, a marginal contender at best, broke slow and ran sore the whole race not surprising as the horse was a vet scratch in an easier spot and could not get off the list for nearly a month!

While TG is known for assigning integers to gauge \"how fast\" a particular horse has run in the past, the ancillary data is the best in the game.  While trainer jock stats, recent trends and even race shapes are, or can be useful in any given case....the unsung hero is the vet scratch!

Generally trainers enter horses although jockey agents and owners also are involved.  All of these use the tracks condition book to find where there horse best fits.  Running a horse especially at a major track requires a ton of work and preparation and a scratched horse should be carefully analyzed by any handicapper.

Scratches come in many forms and occur for a variety of reasons.  The most common scratches come from a horse being excluded; an also eligible that did not draw in, or an off the turf heat.  Other types are made by the:

Trainer.  They may have another spot picked out or the race came up deeper than they thought or the horse got sick etc...

Stewards.  Late for a Lasix shot, paperwork or ownership issues etc.

State Vet.  At most jurisdictions horses are examined the morning of the race for soundness but scratches in the paddock, post parade and even at the gate are not uncommon.  A vet scratch is NEVER good for the horses chances next time out.

The question beckons; \"How do \'cappers \"cap\" scratches?

For TG users the scratch data is marvelously accurate, has legs and in our opinion woefully under utilized by TG users.  At least it is seldom, if ever mentioned on this forum.

I ask WHY is the horse scratched?

Workouts are a large key.  If a horse is scratched (Trainer) and does not work within three days of the \"entered\" race a red flag should go up.  This type has lost some conditioning and is seldom a good play.

Conversely, a stewards scratch is not on the surface cause for concern.

The Vet scratch is the most important.  Anotherwords an impartial expert hired by the jurisdiction declares the horse unfit to race! Bleeders, unfit and unsound are the main reasons.  Each jurisdiction has different rules to escape the vets list and the handicapper should be familiar with the rules on the circuits they play.  Failure here, puts the capper in a tough spot with the onerous take and well heeled players with more info.

In California, a horse on the vets list gets off it by working an acceptable five furlongs in the presence of the state vet and that vet WILL take a blood sample after the work, although the testing of that sample is sporadic.  

The horse in question here was Machismo and he did not measure up on class or recency.  He was a non stakeswinner in a grade stake making his thirtieth start, had not won on synthetic and had worked slow and solo of late.  Entered cheap early last month he was a vet scratch and took some time to get off the list.  Absolutely no malice intended for the poster but lets face it... if we knew then what we know now.............  use the TG scratch board.  It will pay off.  BBB

[jack72906]

Interesting indeed. Thanks for the help:).

[msola1]

bellbendsboy,

Thanks for a very useful post. Pardon the ignorance, but what is the TG scratch board?

Mike

[elkurzhal]

California\'s vet list is online at http://www.chrb.ca.gov/VETLISTDATE.pdf

[Lost Cause]

Why is Machismo not on this list?  In the other post I read he was a vet scratch in early November.  Is there a reason he would not be on this list?

[elkurzhal]

Horses come off the list when they complete the requirements of doing so, usually a 5f work with no drugs observed and approved by the vet.

[Mall]

My two cents on a post which for me more than achieved the author's goal of being interesting:

As everybody knows, some vet scratches are due to cuts and bumps at the gate and have nothing to do with soundness.

Also, depending on the track, vet scratches are always or often lumped in with steward scratches, so that's something you might also want to keep in mind when using this factor to handicap. For such tracks it is sometimes possible to read between the lines and figure out what kind of scratch it probably was, as when a horse just shipped into the track and was scratched before its first start. That's usually but not always due to paperwork issues, since there are trainers who are known for shipping vet scratched horses to another state in the hope of getting a start before the vet scratch information becomes known.

In addition to the list on the link elkurzhal provided, the major tracks also used to mark an asterisk for each satisfactory work next to the name or workout time of horses which were on the vet's list due to unsoundness. Thus, in California, where the rules used to require three supervised works to get off the list, you would see horses which had either one or two asterisks. I don't know if they still do anything like that, even though that was often the only way I know of to distinguish between the types of vet scratches.

Finally, although it's counterintuitive, I believe there is one specific and relatively rare instance where a vet scratch can be a potentially strong positive handicapping factor.

It is widely understood that a horse undergoes its most dramatic development between its two and three year old seasons, and as is often pointed out in the rotw analysis, a comparison of two "ancillary" items of data can be used to give one an idea of how much improvement might take place for specific sires.

What is not as widely understood or discussed is why this improvement takes place. As a very general proposition, this aspect of the growth process in horses is similar to the "growth spurts" which take place during human adolescence. Both involve the remodeling of bones, which is why it is sometimes said that an awkward teenager needs time to grow into his body.

For horses, a year or two ago there was a scientifically conducted study which proved to my satisfaction that the remodeling process and resultant development improves dramatically if the horse undergoes "serious" training at two, which was defined to include the kind of workout regimen necessary to be prepared to run a race, as well as the kind of training typically done for horses which are entered in two year old in training sales.

So, let's say the horse you're considering is a three year which is making its first start or has had one, two or three starts at three, and you're interested in knowing whether the horse underwent "serious" training at two. In addition to a sales history which indicates whether the horse was an RNA or sold at a two year old in training sale, the only other way to find out is if you know whether the horse was a vet's scratch at two.

In the right circumstances, such as long enough odds in a handicapping contest, I have interpreted the vet\'s scratch at two as a reason to play the horse, and after the fact had the opportunity to enjoy listening to the complaints that the play was nothing more than a clueless \"stab.\"

[miff]

It may surprise some that horses re-entered from vet scratches within 30 days,in Cali, were winning at a \"normal\" rate from memory. Now it was only Cali and this was looked at some 2-3 years ago.

DRF(scratch board) along with TG show this valuable info.I wonder what the results would show if TG ran their data base on vet scratches at various tracks. Not only figs,but how many won back.


Mike

[TGJB]

Nice discussion all around, guys.

One point I would add is something I say probably twice a day at the Saratoga seminars-- unsound horses run well fresh. If you are going to bet them do it off layoffs, or the time after that if they do NOT run big off the layoff. Don\'t bet them off efforts-- their odds will be shorter (reflecting running well in their most recent start), and the effort is likely to activate their problems.

[Lost Cause]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice discussion all around, guys.
>
> One point I would add is something I say probably
> twice a day at the Saratoga seminars-- unsound
> horses run well fresh. If you are going to bet
> them do it off layoffs, or the time after that if
> they do NOT run big off the layoff. Don\'t bet them
> off efforts-- their odds will be shorter
> (reflecting running well in their most recent
> start), and the effort is likely to activate their
> problems.

This advice has made/saved me a ton of cash this year...Thank You..Ah Day is the best example I can give of this..

[jack72906]

I think there were cases made in a few BC race analysis this year. I\'ve been using it to my advantage ever since.

[elkurzhal]

Kentucky vet list

http://www.khrc.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/25ABAF19-0513-4D54-AB11-19ACA3F11B62/0/VetList.pdf

[SoCalMan2]

I know on Youbet, you can get something called a horse\'s lifetime activity report.  

This lifetime activity report in addition to showing all races and vet scratches also shows you a horse\'s entire lifetime workout report.  It is fascinating seeing this info.  There are actually horses that may have 20 or 25 or even 30 works before they ever start.  Also, they may ship around to all different tracks and work on lots of different surfaces before they ever start.  In the DRF, they only go back a certain amount of workouts or a certain amount of time -- but just as we sheetplayers like to see the horse\'s lifetime career rather than only their last 10 or 12 races, I like to look at a horse\'s entire lifetime workout record.  I never knew the science that Mall is referring too, but it sounds good to me.  I guess I might be letting a secret out of the bag here by mentioning the lifetime activity report, but I thought it was also available other places too besides YouBet (like equibase).  If nobody else knew about this, Jerry might want to consider deleting this post too.