A few other things: Track biases

[Dana666]

For anyone playing these horses when/if they run back, keep in mind there were a few strong track biases in evidence both Friday and Saturday.

Grass: The temp. rails were removed leaving a few lanes of pristine and super-fast grass on the inside paths; being outside of the 4 or 5 path, the going was very chewed up. Give extra consideration to any grass runner who tried to come running wide - very tough sledding out there.

Pro-Ride: Again, the inside paths were golden; somehow they tightened up the surface and inside was the place to be; it was also very difficult to make up much ground, and if you tried to close wide, you ran against a double bias.  For example, Looking at Lucky\'s race was unreal; he fought both biases and was still running at the end. If you see him in the Hollywood Futurity, he\'ll be a huge play, and if Baffert keeps him on the right path, a huge factor on the first Saturday in May. He\'s the real deal. Maybe, excluding Zenyatta and Goldy, the most impressive horse to run on either day. I can\'t remember many 2 year olds with his kind of professionalism. A Derby future book bet wouldn\'t be the worst idea either I think.

[JimP]

How about Ready\'s Echo? He had both biases that you mentioned working against him AND he had the dreaded \"prep race on dirt\" working against him as well, and he still got up for 2nd. Not a bad race for Ready\'s Echo.

[gteasy]

Bruno De Julio\'s workout analysis in the Racing Digest for the Breeders\' Cup was
on point...he has a grasp of Pro-Ride training biases...(1)few seem to fire that are sent hard in the a.m....(2)finishing well in hand, without urging, and/or in company is the preferred manner of going...(3)working hard on this track chews horses up...(4)getting in a lot of unstressed furlongs is more useful than pushing in shorter drills.

If you combined sheet patterns with positive comments from Bruno, on Friday for example you were pointed toward horses like Deal Breaker, Cherryblossommiss, Tapitsfly, She Be Wild, Blind Luck, and Life Is Sweet...at the same time you would have tossed a filly like Careless Jewel.

Yes, the majority of comments were positive...BC horses should look good...but as Jerry pointed out you had to be skeptical of efforts on dirt transferring to
Pro-Ride...the Pletcher and Suroor barns consistently over-trained and brought horses west that were over-the-top off their dirt efforts...the Suroor horse that did fire was Vale of York coming off an unstressed TURF pattern while posting no timed drills.

Greg

[Dana666]

OK, putting him on my virtual stable horses to watch list. Thanks.

[jack72906]

I\'m gonna have to disagree here Dana. The evidence being that there was only 1 winner from the rail post position all weekend including Sunday(8th race on Sunday).

We repeatedly saw horses struggle running up the rail in the stretch. Gayego looked like he was running in quicksand, Mastercraftsmen looked like he started going backwards, and watch the replay of the Juvenile race on Sunday and notice the burst that Vale of York had when he moved off the rail.

The rail was dead and the only wire to wire winner all weekend was California Flag.

That helped me to select Furthest Land as a single:). Too bad I missed the first three legs of the Pick 6. (Gayego, Nobles Promise/Aikenite, Justenuffhumor/Ferneley, Furthest Land, Conduit, Zenyatta)

I agree that LAL ran one of the best races of the weekend. If the \"right path\" for Baffert includes getting LAL out of California and on a dirt track then yes, he could be a factor in May, but if he houses all winter and into Spring on the plastic he\'s already a toss for me.

[Dana666]

That\'s why this game is so great. People can see the same thing and completely disagree. If you\'re right, you make some cash. If not. . .rail post position has nothing to do with it, where was the horse during the running of the race - regarding those examples you shared, Vale of York was on the rail most of the race until the last 1/16, he had so much energy because he saved all the ground and was running on the good part of the track. The mere fact that Go-Go was determined to stay inside with Gayego indicates how he understood the track - how much did he miss by, not much, right? And remember I also said closers were disadvantaged hence Gayego was screwed having to rally like that late - not easy. Furthest Land was also on the inside (1-2 path) most of the race, he did that same move pulling outside late. As far as Mastercraftsman - he\'s a big, giant, extremely clunky moving horse and no way in hell he was going to squeeze through that hole on the inside - go watch the head on. With the exception of Dancing in Silks, Life is Sweet and Zenyatta - every winner Friday/Saturday raced primarily on the rail or close to it. Forget about the grass, I can\'t even believe they could have such a bias there where the outside was so chewed up; you\'d expect more from a track like Santa Anita. Reminds me of Rock of Gibralter at Arlington\'s insane 1 - mile grass race of a few years back - they stared the race on the turn and he had no shot. Goldikova was just so superior she beat the bias, she faced far inferior foes Saturday. Good luck to you in any event.

[jack72906]

Fair enough. That makes sense. I agree, forget the turf but a lot of the handicapping decisions I made on Sunday were based on the no one crossing the wire first from the 1 post and there no w-t-w winners in two days on the Pro ride.

Just based off of memory it seemed that down the stretch anything in the three path or wider was the place to be. Think Biofuel, LAL, Dancing In Silks, etc.