Some examples of why it's impossible to put too much emphasis on works

[covelj70]

The differences of opinion among people who are suppossed to do this stuff for a living is so stark, that it\'s just impossible for me to put a whole lot of emphasis on the workouts leading up to the Breeders Cup.

I have made the mistake in the last few Derby\'s (and previous Breeders Cups) of overemphasizing physical appearance and workouts and getting away from the data, I am not going to make that mistake again for this Breeders Cup, especially because so much of this is in the eye of the beholder.

Mike Welsh from DRF (who I like and respect) thought Negligee\'s work yesterday was the best thing he saw all day. He raved about it on his blog.  Then the guys on TVG last night panned the work and her action as she carries her head very high with wasted action and she tried to get out on the turn (both of which were true as they played the video for anyone who didn\'t see it)

Same thing with Presicious Passion where Welsh keeps saying he is thriving (he commented that again today) while the TVG guys suggested he might be lucky to finish the race the way he looked in his breeze.

I am not siding with one of these camps over the other, they both know more about this aspect of the game than I do by a longshot.  Rather, I am suggesting that we shouldn\'t put too much emphasis on these works and comments and we should just stick with our analysis.

[miff]

Cov,

Agree with your comments but, take it from me, the guys on TVG do not know what Mike Welch has forgotten about visuals.

Mike

[HP]

This is a good point covelj...it\'s hard sometimes to know where to turn it off.  Works, pace, how do they look?  Where does it end?  

I\'m trying to treat it like another day and I\'ve sworn I\'m not going to look at it again until the day before.  I\'ve spent a lot of time on BC and very little and won and lost both ways.  Especially this year with the synth you could go nuts and not get anywhere.  

Besides we\'ve already got all the conventional wisdom...Euros will win everything, etc.  

There was one year...I can\'t recall if it was three or four years ago...and after the BC races I looked back and I think 5 out of 7 (or 6 of went to horses where I looked at the sheet and said \"that\'s the fastest horse\" and then for some reason I figured out how not to bet them...  

Good luck...  HP

[covelj70]

HP,

Your story is a riot.  I have a similar one.

The Derby two years ago.  My brother in law calls me all psyched right after the horses crossed the wire.  He\'s yelling, \"you gave out the super, you gave out the super\"  I had forgotten that I had sent him an analysis the week before the derby just based on the sheets.

Then I got to Churchill for the week before the Derby and got myself all twisted and turned around with my own visual \"insights\" and the talking heads and I wound up not using 3 out of the 4 that finished in the super....genius!

[NoCarolinaTony]

Miff,

Tom Ammoss was one of those guys. I think he knows a thing or two...

NCT

[Dana666]

Good points. I always thought workouts only make sense as a part of the general handicapping puzzle anyway. Sometimes they will confirm your thoughts of a particular horse that is doing well or not doing well and that\'s very important, but only in the larger context; you\'re right to say you can\'t base everything on someone else\'s impression. I\'ve used pay services in the past, and they will help you if you don\'t want to or can\'t do the work yourself, but they\'re wrong as often as they\'re right.

At least with the big races now you can watch them yourself and make up your own mind. But one thing I\'ve found with synthetic tracks (like grass) you don\'t always want a monster work before a big race - just do enough. Zen is a good example this year. Sheriffs was waiting for the last work to decide classic or ladies classic? I mean, C\'mon, she\'s an awesome animal and always looks terrific, so what the heck was the last work at Hollywood going to tell him that he didn\'t know before? She looked awesome in that work by the way, as good as she could possibly look. But is the game really that subtle? Perhaps, but probably all the other factors you\'ll point to matter much more, post position, running style, race shape and of course t-g #\'s - everything in context. It\'s a puzzle you have to put together. I\'d like more discussion of the track surface and bias, which they almost never do on TV. Looks like the main track there has been tighter than past years, may not favor so many closers, more mid-pack, stalkers - seems like speed was even good (or better than usual) last week and the grass seems pretty fair though on the fast side - seems like it was a little deeper last year which helped the Euro\'s. Though the Euro\'s are probably so superior on grass, that may not matter.

I\'m not that excited this year, so that may be a good thing. I\'ll handicap these races as would any other day/track. I don\'t like the 2 day format though - really dilutes your time, energy, and bankroll; sure some will score big on Frdiay and go on a roll, but one day would be plenty I think.

[miff]

Tony,

Amoss is a sharp trainer and knows his stuff as a trainer. Out of all the informed eyes I know,Mike Welch and Andy Harrington are consistantly on the money.As you know,many horses are morning glories and run poorly in the afternoon anyway.Since this is a synth BC, both days, I am only interested in how horses travel over the surface as opposed to how fast they work.Good Luck!


Mike

[MoonshadowFarm]

First time Poster long time reader
Just thought I would Add this About Negligee being I broke and Trained her here in Ocala Until she went to the Races. Mike Welsh is spot on Here her work was terrific.  As to Mr Amoss comments on TVG She was not lugging out as the term would indicate she was drifting  and that is something she has done from the first time I breezed her. I am Not sure why she does it but it is definitely not from a soundness issue. She has also Always carried her head that way in the Morning.  I have seen here breeze many times and I liked what I saw from her breeze At SA on the 1st.

So with that said I think I will just sit Back and Enjoy the juvenille Filllies. This is one race on the Card that I Can\'t play. My Bias here Clouds my Handicapping Judgement.

[RICH]

great stuff Moonshadow, big problem with posts 10 and out are that run to the turn. 10 post 4-57. 11 is 2-38, 12 is 0-24, and 13 is 0-4.