Welcome to Dr. Frankelstein's Laboratory

[derby1592]

These numbers may not be completely accurate but they should at least be in the right ballpark. Out of a sample of over 2300 TG figures for \"3yo stakes\" horses taken prior to this year, there were only 3 instances in which a horse jumped to a new top of 7 or more points. That means that such a big jump for a stakes caliber 3yo is almost a \"1 in a 1000\" occurrence. I am not sure but I would also guess that none of those 3 big jumpers had a single-digit top prior to their big jump. (Note that a very fast horse is much less likely to make a big jump than is a slower horse.)

In the last week or so the following 3 horses literally became overnight \"monsters\" on the 3yo racing scene:

In the La Derby, Peace Rules jumped from a 7 to 0.5 for a 6.5-point jump

In the Fla Derby, Empire Maker jumped from a 6 to about a -2 (just my guess) for an 8-point jump

In the Swale Stakes, Midas Eyes jumped from an 8 to about a -4 (just my guess) for a 12-point jump

Roughly speaking, the odds of that randomly occurring are less than my chances of winning the lottery, making a hole in one, or getting my son to take out the trash without being told. I will let you draw your own conclusions.

You may be tempted to rationalize these big jumps with all sorts of potentially valid reasons such as surface changes or adding blinkers or trainer changes, etc. But keep in mind that there were probably all sorts of similar circumstances among those other 2300 3yo stakes horses...

\"This is definitely not your father\'s Oldsmobile.\"

Chris

P.S. \"In all affairs it\'s a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted.\" Bertrand Russell

[OPM]

The last couple of months with Baffert and Frankel has made betting very difficult.  Their horses have redefined bounce theory in my opinion and has made it irrevelant.  Handicapping will have to be adjusted or stopped.  Now, with these huge jumps in these young horses, you would think a bounce would come next but don\'t hold your breath or losing tickets.

[Marc At]

I think you\'re way off on the Emprie Maker number, Chris. Lovely trip, there wasn\'t a ton of running behind him, I suspect he ran closer to a 2 on Tgraph. Fast, but not pure insanity, like the two layoff horses for Bobby.

[Silver Charm]

Great work guys.

Particularly you Chris.

I am not a speed figure calculation guy but  the more I thought about Empire Maker the more I believe he ran great and Trust N Luck ran very poorly. At least compared to what Trust N Luck ran in his two prior races. Earlier on the card The Shug trained maiden won in a time of 1:51 and 3/5. He had run three consecutive 11’s beating a horse who had run a 13 and 12 in two races. The race won by Christines Outlaw was run in 1:51 flat. If we extrapolate Trust N Lucks race he was beaten 10 lengths in a race run in 1:49 so doesn’t that put him somewhere around what Christines Outlaw ran.

I think the neg 2 you believe that Empire Maker ran is a little too fast. I will say about a Neg ½ but that is a very unscientific guess on my part. Now the dilemma, when Monarchos ran his 0 in the Fla Derby he bounced in the Wood, when Point Given ran his 0 in the SA Derby he bounced in the Derby. Frankel will be very challenged over the next 12 weeks because he will be asking the horse to run four times.

Empire Maker has one big advantage over both those horses and it is that he started off much faster than both those right off the bat ( a 6) and Frankel has not pushed him. Look at the space between races and all the careful training he has performed. Monarchos was pushed extremely hard that spring and Point Given was trained by Baffert, need I say more. As in a bullet work every six days plus all the non-stop racing.  

I want to make one final comment and I am really out on a limb on this one. Frankel may be a little different than your conventional American Triple Crown trainer, therefore we are being blindsided by these giant efforts his horses are producing. What I am referring to is in Europe don’t you often see some of the really exceptional ones break a maiden at 1 ½ miles then run in a Group 3 then in say the Epsom Derby. Didn’t the Godolphin horse a couple of years ago Lamptarra(??) win both the Epsom and the Arc in his 3YO year and the horse only had 4 races in his entire career!!! Frankel has trained a ton of Euro imports, he doesn’t come across as a know-it-all, as in he would listen and learn from others, and he knows that a horse who is as valuable as Empire Maker shouldn’t be put through the sausage grinder like Baffert does with his horses.

Any thoughts?

[OPM]

Training turf horses is very different from dirt horses.  That why the Euro. do so poorly in the Derby. Look at Godolphin, they are trying to use turf tactics to get to the Derby.  In Europe, a horse can come off a 10 month layoff and win a 1 1/2 race against the best horses in the world.  For whatever reason, it can\'t be done on dirt against the very best horses.  How many horses have won the Derby off a 6 wk layoff? How about the BC Classic?  I don\'t really know why this is but it\'s just happens this way.  One explanation is that it is much more demanding on horses to train them on dirt vs turf.  
Also, I agree with Chris, I think Empire Maker ran a -2.  TNL probably ran a 4-5 and Indy Dancer ran a 4-5.  You have to give them this # since it\'s unlikely that they ran a 9 if E.M. ran a 2. and S. Swinger would have to run abouta 13 if E.M. ran a 2.  So a -2 is more likely.  Now according to bounce theory this horse has to bounce in his next race which is only 4 wks away after running one of the fastest 3yr old spring figure of all time.  Now, who is going to play this horse to bounce and bounce big in his next race?

[Silver Charm]

OPM,

I can\'t disagree with you about the lack of success the Euro\'s have had but they are asking their horses to do an awful lot. Ship across the world, run on dirt, no US based prep.

A few years ago Bold Arrangement came from Europe and ran in the Blue Grass Stakes when it was on a Thursday, 9 DAYS before the Derby. He ran second in that race and then was second in the Derby. Clive Brittan was his trainer and since then no one has tried to emulate his example. Most of the people have had the arrogance the Arazi crew had and came over here and got there butts kicked.

Frankel may have a little bit of both American and Euro style built into his techniques. He is a good layoff guy turf or dirt, is that not correct?

I know examples of older do not really apply but Charlie Whittingham trained Greinton off a five month into a win in the Santa Anita Big Cap. Precisionist also ran off a five month layoff to win the second Breeders Cup sprint ever run (at Aqueduct).

If Frankel did skip the Wood and trained Empire Maker up to the Derby off a seven week layoff would you throw him out? After what you witnessed Sat in the Fla Derby??

[Catalin]

Bobby Frankel is no fool.  He understands the bounce theory, and will most likely take the John Ward approach to the Derby.  In other words, let EM train lightly for the Wood and wind him up again for the Derby.  Don\'t be surprised if those pre FLA Derby works of 1:11 turn into post FLA Derby works of 1:15.  

I think we\'ve got a much better chance to beat him at Aqueduct, than we do on the first Saturday in May.

[OPM]

It\'s hard to say that the Big Cap attract all the best runners in the world the way the KY Derby and BC Classic does that\'s why you can win it off a layoff.  If he trained EM up to the Derby, I would be more likely to throw him out than if he ran an off race in the Wood.

[Silver Charm]

The Big Cap I am talking about was a great field. In that year the Breeders Cup was still in its infancy, no Dubai, and not all American trainers and Racing Secretarys for that matter, had shifted their programs in the direction of the Breeders Cup.

The Big Cap was THE RACE back then. Horses would ship in from the East and take a shot. Precisionist was the favorite that year and Greinton ran down in the final strides a front running, FTL, 300-1 longshot by the name of Herat.  

In his prepping for the race Whittingham gave Greinton a 1 1/4 mile work in 2:04. Now days people would use a prep race and try and win some money at the same time. There are horsemen out there who can still train like this. Not everyone is a gasoline type trainer such as Baffert and yet there are so many members of the media who live their lives by the moniker of \"All Baffert all the time\" that he becomes the only trainer they want to write about. It is an injustice!