Richard's Kid in the Goodwood

[covelj70]

I am disappointed that Baffert decided to run in the Goodwood this weekend instead of training the horse up to the Classic.

He ran a big number in the Pac Classic (JB posted the figs here on the board) and he needs more time to recover from that effort in order to be at his best in the Breeders Cup.

He has bounced off the 1 negative type numbers before and he is likely to again on Sat.  Training up to the classic would have given the horse his best chance of coming back to the 1 negative in the BC which would have put him right in the mix.

Parading seems to be in the same category for the Goodwood. He ran a big buried number in the Pac Classic, a number he has bounced off of before and he seems likely to bounce on Sat and either not run in the BC or not run his best on that day.

Also, wouldn\'t it be ironic if Zenaytta finally got beat in this one when she gives little/no weight to her rivals when I spent the first part of this year trying to beat her precisely because she was giving so much weight to her rivals.  She looks too tough to beat at these weight assignments.

Tough to figure the filly turf race out there on Sat.  Black Mamba and Magical Fantasy are clearly the fastest but my guess is that neither is primed to run her race on Sat as the connections are most likely using this as a prep for the BC filly and mare turf.  Likely one of the other ones who are a step slower than those two but who could be cranked for this could beat BM and MF and give us a price in that race.

[martoon]

Jim...

I love the fact that these guys are racing their healthy horses instead of being so scared of the bounce.  I\'m glad to see the Breeders Cup is not ruining another great race.  Would you rather have another scraggly 5 horse field for a Grade 1?  I applaud them for not falling in that scared to bounce trap.  Everybody talks about the good old days when horses raced more often...

Then again I recently had my horse come up sore after racing back in 3 weeks, so I don\'t know anything.  Sheesh.. So tough to beat this game.  When I play the bounce they don\'t, and when I don\'t play the bounce they do!  I can\'t guess right.  I need to go with the George Costanza bet the opposite of what I\'m thinking method.

[covelj70]

I want to see the best horses run their best in the biggest races.  In this case, we could have a horse who is very live in a $5m race but he very likey needs more time to recover from the big effort.

This is all about percentages.  It\'s no guarentee that he would run his 1 negative in the BC Classic if he got the time but it is definitely more likely that he would.

Unfortunately, we will never know.

[RICH]

Hey Cov

In days past, we would play for the bounce after the top, the horse bounces and we hope for a return to the top, why not Richard\'s kid?

[covelj70]

yeah, I was thinking about exactly that but do we think that he has enough time to get the bounce out of the way and come all that way back to the top in only 4 weeks?

I still think the percentages say that training up to the BC is most likely to result in running the top on the big day.

We will hope for the best but I fear the worst in this situation.

[RICH]

The good thing is the top would be 8 weeks back.