TG vs. Rags Saturday at the Spa

[Deadrockstar]

Bought TG and went to both Jerry\'s seminar and the Ragozin one. Very interesting. Jerry gave a good, informative presentation with several handicapping angles and sheet reads that I never would have come up with. The numbers of the two services  -- TG is several points faster on dirt -- often differed and in the two big stakes races quite sharply.

Ragozin had RA making a 1/4 point forward move in the Haskell to a 0, which they had a lot faster than TG. They also have the Whitney significantly faster.

John, a Ragozin employee or hanger-on gave their presentation and had a better day -- with a major, major exception -- than Jerry. He gave out the winner in 7 of 12 races, several of which were his most preferred. He also gave out a cold $2,070 trifecta in the 8th. (I didn\'t have it. Damn, threw the 2/1 favorite out completely and he got 3rd.)

John had negative opinions about 3 horses than ended up winners, including Pyro.

Jerry had 4 or five winners if you give him credit for Pyro but had explicitly negative opinions about 3 winners. He didn\'t give an opinion about the nightcap.

Several inexplicable horses ended up in trifectas and some exactas to make it a modestly losing day for me, but the excitement of the Woodward made up for it and them some.

Race by race, with some lapses in memory.

1) Both gave out the exacta.
2)John of Rags touted the winner as one of 3 to use. No exacta, however. Jerry preferred Devonshire (who John liked, too) who was also ran.
3) Jerry disliked the 6/5 winner, who was 5/2 in the morning line. John\'s most preferred horse.
4) Everybody hated Mother Russia, who naturally won easily at 4/1.
5) Both had the winner @ 2/1.
6) John liked the 5/1 winner, but missed all exotics. I think Jerry liked the horse, too.
7) Jerry had negative opinion about the 4/1 winner. John did not like horse either.
Jerry liked 2nd horse a lot at 10/1 and I believe had the winner. He probably cashed nicely. John gave out cold trifecta and exacta. I had the $330 exacta.
9) Big loss for Rags fans beting pick 3s and pick 4s if you listened to John\'s \"toss\" opinion on Pyro who ran only a Rags 8 in his Spa prep. (I didn\'t.) Jerry liked the horse, along with Kodiak Cowboy for a modest exacta.
10) Jerry disliked Macho Again. John liked the horse. Jerry instead touted It\'s a Bird.
11) Here\'s where it gets foggy. Jerry had some correct negative opinions and I honestly forget if he had the winner. John liked the 7, who ran out and the 6, who ran second at 12/1.
12) Jerry passed. John gave out the $62 exacta.

As for me, I made the last 5 races on Friday and won what was for me a lot ($1,700, mostly due to the 1,385 pick 4) Gave $200 back after hitting a pick three late and the pick 4 along with the 11th race exacta and Tri.

Just a report. Not trying to start anything.

[TGJB]

Dead-- you couldn\'t identify yourself at the seminar?

First of all, seriously doubt Ragozin had the Haskell faster than us, since we gave her neg 4 1/2. Based on Friedman\'s comments on his board sounds like they had it half to a point slower on scale. They did have her previous one faster, that was the impossible figure to do, as I have explained before. No way to know what that really was.

Don\'t know what \"having winners\" means in the context of a seminar, and all plays would be relative to price anyway. But what matter is how the figures hold up, not how a couple of guys interpret them. I have guys coming up to me all the time thanking me for giving out some race they hit that I did not.

[Deadrockstar]

Actually, I was planning to brief you on the Rags seminar but didn\'t see you at the BBQ stand during the couple of times I passed by. I was the guy up front in the orange shirt.

I must have transposed your Haskell and Mother Goose figures in my head. In any event, the most glaring difference I saw was their Pyro last race number.

My next and only trip for a while to a race track will be Saturday, Sept. 19. Charles Town for a bachelor party.

It\'s not exactly a place where sheets numbers provide much of an edge, I would imagine. But the trainer data should help.

[SilkySullivan]

JB...  I was at the Sat and Sun seminar and appreciate your effort very much. Your style (like the ROTW) of rating horses as \"must use\", \"use\" or \"toss\" based on ML odds let\'s me test my own analysis of the numbers. You note patterns that have particular meaning which i wouldn\'t see or know on my own. Because of the dynamic of changing odds, you can\'t really call your comments a \"pick\" per se.  Your analysis of the 4th on Sat was particularly interesting.
You said the odds board was inverted to performance and that races where you could toss not 1 but 2 favorites was what you wait for.  Sadly that mutha, Mother Russian cruised loose on the lead and blew up the concept. Next time she\'ll end up in Siberia and i will cash. i will be looking for that scenario again.