Are you a"lone" are are you "ciding" with someone in the ROTW?

[derby1592]

Good analysis in this weeks ROTW.

I pretty much agree with the analysis except for one horse: Lone Star Sky.

Lone Star Sky certainly does not look like a Derby winner but I think he has a legitimate shot to run well in this race. He did react badly to a very fast July figure but that was over 8 months ago. Since then he has had a freshening and got back to that top in his second start at 3. I agree that there is a chance that he still has soundness problems and could react to that level again but I think there is also a chance that he is feeling good right now and ready to run a big new top. He has the sort of line that looks like he might explode on Sunday and then fall apart after that. He also has a couple of races over the tricky FG surface and a good post and local trainer. He may not win it but he could be a factor at a price.

I would agree that Funny Cide is faster stronger but I think both he and Lone Star Sky are the value in the race. That said, if the two favorites fire again, FC and LSS will be battling it out for the show spot.

Good luck.

Chris

[OPM]

I don\'t want to say it again this week and lose again but I will have to agree with Chris and throw out the fav. and bet these 2 horses.  I like Cide better but agree that Sky is also strong.  Kafwain can run very well as all of Baffert\'s horses are running their tails off but not at 7/5 for me.  I also, will put Peace rules in there for the exotics because of the odds and connection and maybe he will take to dirt.  Well, Chris, if we keep playing 15-1 shots, we need only hit 1/10 to make some money!!!

[Mall]

The most interesting of the preps so far, in large part because of Badge & his connections. When Werner burst on the scene at Kee 2 yrs ago by winning close to half of the 4.5 furlong races in the spring, it was reported that his training methods were unique even for a former quarter horse trainer. A rodeo rider, he was said to use rodeo training techniques, never explained in any detail. The impression left was that he was a lot tougher & more demanding on his babies, & they all seemed to have a running style which was quite a bit different than previously seen. They didn\'t break particularly fast, and didn\'t seem hellbent on running as fast as possible when the gate opened, but after about 100 yds they would exhibit a stunning burst of speed which would put them ahead by 2-4 lenghts almost instantly, and the race would be over. If memory serves, the tall & slender Werner always wears all black with a large white cowboy hat, which adds to the intrigue.

Ken Ramsey is said to have simply approached Werner in the paddock, and Badge was among the 10 horses Werner bought for Ramsey so that Ramsey could add the 4.5 furlong races to his assault on the owner\'s title at Kee. A high percentage of the 10 won, but all 10 were injured, Badge among the worst. He will be running Sun with 2 screws in the leg he broke in his 1st race, always a dicey proposition with a very fast horse which seems to strong desire to win.

After the Risen Star, Ramsey was quoted as saying he would run Badge in the Ill Derby instead of this race because Badge might bounce on short rest. Whether it was the bonus money or Werner, or the recent work, Ramsey reversed course, so the race will be interesting for that reason as well.

For some reason, Cide\'s trainer, who is  very interesting as well, came to mind yesterday when Ken Rudolph awarded his hard luck story of the day award to an unfortunate gentleman who was shut out on a $26 winner after being delayed at the entrance to Bel by a process server who handed him divorce papers. After the award, Frank Lyons repeated the old saw that the reason divorce is so expensive is because it\'s worth it.