Perfect setup brewing in the Big Cap....

[derby1592]

I thought this would be the ROTW but I guess it is not. Hopefully, some others have taken a look at the sheets for the race and can chime in.

Congaree – This looks to be the perfect time to bet against him. He will be the overwhelming choice now that Frankel scratched MDO, he is stretching out in distance, he has run 3 straight big negative figures with a pattern that could be interpreted as tailing off. The downside is that he looks to be the controlling speed and Baffert\'s stable is absolutely on fire right now. He may fool me yet again but I have to play against him.

Pleasantly Perfect – I absolutely love his line and he is bred to be a mile and a quarter horse. At the weights, he is not that much slower than Congaree\'s last 2 races and any sort of improvement on his part or regression on Congaree\'s part would place him ahead of the favorite assuming a decent trip. He should save ground early but give up some late although the small field should help in that regard. He is the obvious key in my opinion.

Milwaukee Brew – He is the other possible key. A consistent horse trained by Frankel that loves the 1,1/4 mile distance. At the weights he is definitely fast enough to win off his last race. Unfortunately, that was a big new top as a 6yo but he had a solid 5yo line for Frankel and another big effort would not be a surprise.

Kudos – Certainly has a shot. I don\'t like him as much as PP but he is fast and probably needed his last and he could finish in the mix.

The rest look overmatched and will crack the top 4 only if one of the above runs a dud.

I will key PP and toss Congaree. If Congaree wins, I will not cash. If he does not win, then the further down that he finishes the better I will do.

Any other opinions out there?

This is the best card at SA that I have seen in quite a while.

Good luck.

Chris

[Michael D.]

Pleasantly Perfect - obvious contender.. got the best of the weights, and looks ready to fire big. I think his best distance, however, is nine furlongs, so I may try to beat him for the top spot, but will have him on most tickets.
Kudos - last time I bet Julie in a G1 race was when she rode Colonial Affair. the odds will tell me what to do with this one. I can not separate the top four contenders, so if Kudos goes off at 10-1 or higher, I will have him on top. he has two nice ten furlong races (trouble in last years race), and Mandella is one of the best.
Congaree - at equal weights I wouldn\'t try to beat him. I do not think he will go off at 2-5 as some think, as I have read 20 opinions on the race, and not one person says he will win the race. still, I will join the crowd, and hope he can not duplicate is best performances going ten furlongs.
Milwaukee Brew - looks just like PP and Kudos... strange, looking at his record at the distance, he has only one win and no seconds in eight tries going ten furlongs. could win it, and I will use him, but I will take the higher odds on Kudos or PP on the win end.

[kev]

Wow what a great race. Two good horses ding donging it out to the wire. I don\'t see how anyone could have tryed to throw out CONGAREE, this was a weak group, besides M. Brew which was my choice in the BC that i needed to get up for second ( just can\'t get some of those races out of my head ). I didn\'t play this race. I will be playing that nice race at FG tom. Looks like a good race.

[Michael D.]

Kev,
Congaree went off at 3/5, AND DID NOT WIN? What are you talking about?? Do you understand what you are saying?? You are supporting a 3/5 shot who lost, EVEN AFTER HE LOST ? Let me help you understand why people threw our Congaree.... BECAUSE HE WENT OFF AT 3/5 AND DID NOT WIN!!!!!!!!! For those who had MB on top (including those who collected the 32g pk6, which was not that difficult if you tossed Cong and used MB) I say congratulations, good pick. I settled for Kudos, who was a bit outclassed.

[kev]

First of all he lost by a nose, yes he did lose but it was by a nose. All this hype about him bounceing and running a bad race. Past few times people have tryed to beat him and lost. So your telling me there were people who threw out CONG. on their pick six ticket??? Maybe a few, not many.  So you had KUDOS did you know he was outclassed before or after the race??

Lets see how we do on the ROTW at the FG tom. I will post my picks sometime tom. I cap using many different tools (class,pace, and a rating of how fast they are)

I guess all you sheets players will still be waiting for the bounce on CONG next out uh?? or the next time after that and after that.

I\'m still trying to understand how or why CONG. was tossed? I just don\'t see it. Who cares if he was 3/5 i was capping the race from a non betting point and he looked damn good to me. Thanks for your post i look forward to your next one.

[Michael D.]

From a non betting standpoint, you are exactly correct. The horse ran a great race. The problem, however, is that every single person who posted on either board was talking from a betting perspective, and they were correct about taking a shot against Congaree. The weight was Congaree\'s downfall, as I stated in my original post, and as others suspected as well. Clearly, trying to beat this horse on the win end was the correct thing to do. The next time you think you have some great insight on a 3/5 shot who loses, post a flat tri or super before the race with the horse coming in second, and I will give you credit. Until you do that, every time you tout a 3/5 shot who does not win, please just come back and say I was wrong.

[kev]

Thats fine. It\'s just i like to know how many people really though this horse was going to get beat?? Was there people out there saying \"oh yes Cong. is going to run a bad one\" even from a betting stand point the horse had to scare you and add him into the ex\'s. Maybe its just me even if say my top pick was M.brew could i have not played a ex with cong. on top for a saver. Maybe there is people out ther with that kind of money and balls to do a thing not me.

[Michael D.]

OK, fair enough....... speak to you next week

[OPM]

I definitely thought he would run out of the money.