I don't ever remember there being as much consensus on this board

basket777 · June 03, 2009, 08:01:52 AM

What is his line? thanks

Lost Cause · June 03, 2009, 08:42:05 AM

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Charitable Man is starting to remind me of a speed
> horse trained by Woody Stephens back in the \'80s.
> Colt\'s name was Gone West. He was way overbet in
> the year Alysheba was going for the Triple Crown
> and really was just a miler.
>
> Bet Twice stalked,middle moved (he had a terrific
> turn of foot)and blew the field out by 14.
>
>
> Find the colt in here with that kind of turn of
> foot who can stalk from not too far out of it and
> he is the one that blows by CM on the turn.
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Gone West was pretty much a miler...Charitable Man does not look distance limited like Gone West. I think it\'s a bad example but who knows.

jbelfior · June 03, 2009, 09:48:00 AM

Lost:

I meant his pre-race hype more than his distance limitations.

I just think CM will be terribly overbet (off of what I don\'t know) and may even go off the favorite. DUNKIRK will love the sweeping turns, just not sure if he\'s fit enough.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

P-Dub · June 03, 2009, 11:07:08 AM

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lost:
>
> I just think CM will be terribly overbet (off of
> what I don\'t know) and may even go off the
> favorite.

> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

If this horse is the favorite, I will use Beyer figures for the rest of my life. No friggin way. We went over his in the other thread.

He\'ll be at least 3-1, MTB WILL be the favorite. Maybe the race won\'t be bettable, there are lots of great races on the undercard.

Once the TGs become available, I have a feeling we\'ll be having a lot of Dunkirk talk around here. You will probably get a nice price on him too.

MonmouthGuy · June 03, 2009, 12:13:09 PM

I also believe that CM will be the post time favorite at around 9/5, and unless he has become Quality Road since the Peter Pan, Dunkirk has a damn good chance to run him down when he makes his move on the far turn. He will have the first run on CM. Chocolate Candy should go with him with Mine that Bird, Flying Private and Summer Bird making late runs.

MonmouthGuy · June 03, 2009, 12:18:44 PM

P-Dub.

His morning line is 3-1 the same as it was in the Peter Pan, where he was the second choice on the morning line but got pounded at the windows.

I could be wrong, I can see him going off as the favorite too.

sekrah · June 03, 2009, 12:48:57 PM

>
> I just think CM will be terribly overbet (off of
> what I don\'t know) and may even go off the
> favorite.

Are you nuts?

sekrah · June 03, 2009, 12:50:25 PM

I\'ll give you an even money wager up to whatever $$ figure you want that Charitable Man will not be the favorite Saturday.

Name your price. I love free money.

jbelfior · June 03, 2009, 01:32:54 PM

Sekrah:

That\'s your opinion. Who cares if he goes off as the favorite or not. The point was that his resume will not match his post time odds.

Didn\'t they make Friesan Fire the Derby favorite? You never know what the lemmings who just bet on the Triple Crown races will do.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

MonmouthGuy · June 03, 2009, 03:53:28 PM

Not interested in that bet, just stating my opinion.

P-Dub · June 04, 2009, 01:52:28 AM

Monmouth,

We haven\'t agreed on much lately, and you make a good point about the Peter Pan. But looking at past history, the Derby winner gets bet down in the Belmont. Coupled with the fact he ran big in the Preakness, a race everybody watched, and that again the Belmont Stakes has a lot of \"casual\" money, I just don\'t see CM as the favorite. Getting pounded in the Peter PAn and getting bet in the Belmont are 2 different things.

I still believe CM goes off at least at his ML, not just because of MTB but also Dunkirk. 7/2 or 4/1 still seems possible for CM.

Joe B,

The reason FF was the Derby favorite was in large part due to his big effort in the slop, and the Derby was run over an off track.

Odds Prediction:
MTB: 7/5
CM: 4/1
Dunkirk: 6/1

At the above odds, Dunkirk may be my key. Still have 3 days to change my mind.

sekrah · June 04, 2009, 03:07:03 AM

>
> Odds Prediction:
> MTB: 7/5
> CM: 4/1
> Dunkirk: 6/1
>

These odds are on the money IMO.. I wouldn\'t even put it past MTB being 6/5 or even money.

APny · June 04, 2009, 12:51:51 PM

The NY Post had a whole article today on how all the \"experts\" believe Charitable Man will be an easy winner. With all the hype surrounding him and with many still skeptical of MTB...I don\'t think you\'ll get anything over 2-1 on CM. The people that crushed him in the Peter Pan will be back putting the big money on him again.

P-Dub · June 04, 2009, 01:01:02 PM

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The NY Post had a whole article today on how all
> the \"experts\" believe Charitable Man will be an
> easy winner. With all the hype surrounding him
> and with many still skeptical of MTB...I don\'t
> think you\'ll get anything over 2-1 on CM. The
> people that crushed him in the Peter Pan will be
> back putting the big money on him again.

I am locking this thread. Everyone has had their opinions on what they think the odds will be.

We\'ll find out in 2 days.

Besides, I\'m right. See previous post.