Met Mile - Very interesting race

[jimbo66]

Assuming that these jockeys can make the weight on some of the horses getting it, this could be a very interesting race.  (not for you Covelj, this isn\'t the kind of race for somebody who puts the 1-5 and the 5-2 on his pick-4 ticket...  

Bribon is the fastest horse in the race, but his negative 3\'s are a bit isolated and his secondary tops are competitive, but just make him \"one of the ones\" that can win.  

At the weights, Smooth Air is a big underlay.  

To me, the interesting ones, at prices are Driven by Success and Imperial Council.  Driven by Success is outside, but with Mr. Fantasy scratched, he probably can sit second, off the shoulder of the rail horse.  Carrying 113, his negative 1\'s are very competitive here.  No reason he can\'t run that figure here with plenty of rest since his last race.  As a 4 year old, there is even some chance he can improve and run a new top.

Imperial Council has tops of 2, which is slower than some of the others, but he gets 2 points of weight from the top weights and as a 3 year old is one that could improve here.  The relatively short rest into this make it somewhat less likely that he can get the new top, but factoring in a very conservative trainer, I would say the horse must be sending Shug the right signals in training for him to run back in here off short rest.  

I think a box of Bribon with these two longshots makes sense, plus playing the one that goes off at longer odds to win.  And of course using them both in the pick-4.

Good luck.

Jim

[Lost Cause]

I don\'t think Driven by success wants this distance.  He can probably hang around for a piece but I can\'t see him winning.  I\'ve seen enough of Imperial council on dirt, he\'ll probably be shipped to poly next as Shug\'s horses seem to do very well on it, also, R Fuentes winning the Met Mile???, i\'m guessing he\'s on to make weight but I\'ll let him beat me.
Think you have to use Bribon (fastest horse), My Pal Charlie (Very good numbers, Will finally get back on a fast dirt track) , Ready\'s echo (Any improvement over last year\'s dirt numbers and he is a very live longshot)  and Famous Patriot(Likes Belmont, Likes Distance, good Numbers).  Can\'t choose between them yet but you get huge odds on the Latter two.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Love it!

Good luck and great analysis!

btw, my ticket including the 1-5 and the 5-2 still paid 10-1 singled to my filly in the last.  Of course got lucky there, can\'t count on that everytime

[MonmouthGuy]

I think The Roundhouse is a very live longshot.

He made a 5-6 wide move in the Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day (video below) in the worst part of the track and was gobbling horses up at the end.  He seems to be begging for more distance.  He was fast as a 2YO, didn\'t race at 3 and has a nice forward moving pattern this year.  If the race sets up as it should, he may run them all down late.

http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=39233

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I didn\'t read your post closely enough, and didn\'t see you had a filly in the last.  Congrats on the win.  She looked great.

But you bet like an owner   There was that Preakness daily double 3 to 5 bet, now this one.  I couldn\'t resist smiling when you talked about how having both Zenyatta and Life is Sweet on your tickets \"locks up the race\".  Yep, it locks up a negative ROI on the race.....

BTW,

TGJB, there is something wrong with Zenyatta and the way she looks on TG.  Yesterday was maybe the 5th time in her last 7 races, where she wasn\'t even the fastest horse in the race on TG, when you factor in weight.  She ALWAYS looks vulnerable on TG and yet none of her races are even close.  And it isn\'t like she keeps \"tripping out\". I won\'t get another string of anti-PDub, I mean anti-Mike Smith comments going.  But let\'s just say she often gives up ground because of her running style, often spots weight, seldom looks like the most likely winner on TG and yet wins for fun every time.  Is this another \"figure compression\" issue?  Or do you just not have her as fast as she really is?

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I don\'t know what Zenyatta ran yesterday, but I thought she was by far the most likely winner of the race, since the other fast filly had never shown she could run well on cushion or dirt. Given the inside trip the second filly had my guess is she didn\'t run much of a figure, either, certainly not her top. I played a small win bet on the O\' Neill filly, big exacta under Zenyatta.

One point to remember with Zenyatta is that she is running in the jurisdiction with the toughest testing in the country. Many of the horses getting big figures elsewhere might not be able to get them there. That situation is slowly changing, which is one reason I haven\'t chamged the scale.

She does look good doing it, though. And how about them taking show betting...

[smalltimer]

I\'m a big fan of Zenyatta, a very big fan of John Shirreffs and and even bigger fan of Mike Smith.  I thought if Zenyatta was a bit vulnerable, it was yesterday because Cushion is her least favorite surface.  As far as the TG numbers being \"off\" on Zenyatta, I don\'t know enough to even comment.  I do know one thing...this is one running mare, big time running mare.  I\'m confident that John will campaign her in a very sensible fashion, he\'s not gonna run her back too soon and risk knocking her out. John\'s history of getting his good horses to run big races is pretty well documented.  
I think some fans may fail to realize that this is a filly who is better than 17 hands tall, and she\'s very athletic for that large of animal.  I\'ve had a conversation with Mike a year ago and like Mike or not, he\'s been on some great, great animals...Cigar, Skip Away, Cherokee Run, Azeri, Lure, Holy Bull among his very best mounts ever.  
This is an animal unlike any other he\'s ever ridden.  (Qualifying this because I\'ve never ridden a thoroughbred in a wagering event, as like MOST of the other riding experts in this forum).  Typically, when you\'re riding a Cadillac like some of those mentioned above, at some point in the race when they are \"asked\" it takes them 3-4-5-6 strides to really launch their bid.  This is not true with Zenyatta.  When she is asked, her response is immediate. That\'s why Mike is very careful about when he asks her because this mare just lopes along waiting for the movement of the reins to get into action.  You watch her on the backside being 10-15 lengths out of it and you wonder if she\'s gonna get there.
As I watched the replay yesterday, it looked to me like Garrett was trying to run interference in front of Zenyatta.   Since Garrett\'s horse was in front, he got to set the path that he was on, but he certainly wasn\'t going to make it easy for Mike to go either inside or outside of his mount.  You can clearly see once Mike brought Zenyatta back off Garrett\'s horse and asked her for an instant, she went by her like she was standing still.  I assume that pissed Mike and Zenyatta off.
At any rate, any horse can be beaten on the right day on the wrong surface or the wrong horse on the front end.  I like Zenyatta\'s chances against any filly/mare on this planet at 1/16th or 1/8th, regardless of Beyers, TG numbers.  If she fires, and she always does, she\'ll be a handful, and I\'ll be cheering her on even when I don\'t bet a nickel on her.  Her late pace numbers continue to be unbelievable by any standards.

[covelj70]

Thanks Jimbo,

That Preakness double was idiotic on my part.  One day I hope to live that down

[jimbo66]

Lost Cause,

I would not be so sure that Driven by Success can\'t get the mile.  The progeny of Precise End are pretty good up to a mile.  Draw a line through this horse\'s race two back.  In a race filled with speed, he blew the start, then got rushed up very wide.  His last race is much better than it looks.  He went tooth and nail with Fabulous Strike from the start, then got a little weary late and got beat two lengths.  Fabulous Strike is the best dirt sprinter in the country, by a lot, if you ask me.   Running early with Accredit, instead of Fabulous Strike, will seem like a walk in the park (unless the track is wet).  The other horse that passsed him was Kodiak Cowboy, who has run at least 1 negative 5 from my memory (and maybe another huge figure).  This is a step down in competition for Driven by Success.  The move back to Dominguez will help as well.  With the scratchh of Mr. Fantasy, who would have been the most likely winner IMO, if he had run, this field has an unusual lack of speed.  It is Accredit from the rail and this guy.

As for Raymond Fuentes, I can\'t say I am a fan, but he got his first win of the year today, and he may make a big run with Imperial Council, if the speed comes back tomorrow.  
 
Very very good betting race in the Met Mile.

[chrifron]

Agree with you he has a chance--The Roundhouse was a very talented 2YO before he got injured and had surgery, causing him to miss well over a year. I was at Monmouth when he broke his maiden, and it was incredible how much ground he closed in a 5F race--one of the most impressive 2YO races I have ever seen. The 2nd race back after the layoff at GP on 3/19 was also an impressive win--unfortunately, I wish that Prado wasn\'t riding him.

 He needs the 1, 5 and 12 to slug it out on the front end to have a chance. This is the weakest Met Mile field in recent memory, IMO. The only U.S. G1 winner in the race did it on turf--the entire field put together only has 8 graded stakes wins (counting an Argentinian GR1). Smooth Air has 3 graded stakes wins, so if you don\'t like him. then it\'s wide open.  Ironically, Ready\'s Echo, The Roundhouse and Riley Tucker all raced against each other at Saratoga when they were 2YO\'s.

 If not in the Met Mile, somewhere in the near future, he will pop at a price.

[alm]

This is a poor Met Mile.  Been watching it for many years.

Sprinters usually fade, but maybe not so much in this one, as the field is weak.

Top 4 (not in sequence): 1, 2, ll, 12.

[Lost Cause]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lost Cause,
>
> I would not be so sure that Driven by Success
> can\'t get the mile.  The progeny of Precise End
> are pretty good up to a mile.  Draw a line through
> this horse\'s race two back.  In a race filled with
> speed, he blew the start, then got rushed up very
> wide.  His last race is much better than it looks.
>  He went tooth and nail with Fabulous Strike from
> the start, then got a little weary late and got
> beat two lengths.  Fabulous Strike is the best
> dirt sprinter in the country, by a lot, if you ask
> me.   Running early with Accredit, instead of
> Fabulous Strike, will seem like a walk in the park
> (unless the track is wet).  The other horse that
> passsed him was Kodiak Cowboy, who has run at
> least 1 negative 5 from my memory (and maybe
> another huge figure).  This is a step down in
> competition for Driven by Success.  The move back
> to Dominguez will help as well.  With the scratchh
> of Mr. Fantasy, who would have been the most
> likely winner IMO, if he had run, this field has
> an unusual lack of speed.  It is Accredit from the
> rail and this guy.
>
> As for Raymond Fuentes, I can\'t say I am a fan,
> but he got his first win of the year today, and he
> may make a big run with Imperial Council, if the
> speed comes back tomorrow.  
>  
> Very very good betting race in the Met Mile.


Agreee with you on the very good betting race...
I would feel a lot better about Driven by Success if he can get out to the lead. If the connections of Accredit don\'t want to commit suicide and then decide to let Driven by success get to the front and cut 23 for the first qtr and 47 for the half..look out.

[firmturf]

I ended up throwing the 12 out because of the post and went with the 1 instead.

My tri tickets are worthless now....lol

The \"head on\" looked like the 12 got over a little to quick as they were all checking behind him on his crossover.