Early Belmont Stakes Day Thoughts.....

[jimbo66]

Emboldened by RichieBee and Covelj\'s support, in spite of my awful handicapping job last weekend, here are some early thoughts on the Saturday Stakes races.

True North - I think the key has to be Desert Key.  He gets 7 lbs from Fabulous Strike and 8 lbs from Benny the Bull.  With the weight is faster than Benny and about on par with Fabulous Strike.  If Desert Key can run negative 2 and change as a 3 year old, what can he do at 4.  Strange race 1st time back as he lost to an inferior horse, but was pretty wide.  Expecting 2nd off the layoff improvement, big time, with Jimmy Jerkens as trainer.  Using both Desert Key and FAbulous STrike in the pick-6, but will be betting Desert Key to win at expected overlaid odds.  (3rd choice)

Just a Game - Not a great betting race as Forever Together is awfully good, at her best.  If she runs the \"0\", she wins.  Tough to guess at odds without Morning Line, but guessing that NY Bred I Lost My Choo goes off at 8-1 or better.  She got back to her top last time, a pair up, with a trip gets her no worse than 2nd to Forever Together, a new top makes her very dangerous.  The other thing to hope if you want to beat Forever Together is that 1 mile is not the ideal distance for her and perhaps she doesn\'t have to fire her top.  If she just re-runs the 2 she ran last time, with the weight, that just makes her on par with I Lost my Choo.  I will bet I Lost My Choo to win, but also play an exacta underneath Forever Together.

Woody Stephens - I think This One\'s for Phil is a standout here.  Paired up the negative 2\'s and looks worse on Beyer than on TG, which is good for us TG users (assuming JB got it right).  Gets enough spacing here to even consider it possible for him to run back to his top, which blows this field away.  I am guessing this horse doesn\'t go off as short as he should, because Hull is undefeated, Munnings ran a triple digit beyer last time and Everyday Heroes ran the big number on Preakness day.  I don\'t like that Everyday Heroes was bearing out badly last time out, the fact that he was bearing out while running a 4 point new top and now gets only 3 weeks rest, makes it worse.  Hull has spacing and room to improve, but is too slow to contend seriously.  Hello Broadway is a slow rat with a reputation.  Should be 30-1, will probably be 7-1 or so.  Hope for 7-2 on This One\'s For Phil and bet him to win and also single him in multi-race bets.

Acorn - Tough call for me on how to play this race in the pick-6.  Without the Oaks day injury, I would make Justwhistledixie my second \"single\", along with This One\'s for Phil and move on.  However, with that setback, and a couple of potentially interesting horses in the race, I am inclined to make this a \"spread race\".  Funny Moon got down to a \"3\" last time, which with a trip and JWD not running her absolute best, makes her a contender.  The question is was is the wet tracks that moved her up in the last two, or was it just natural progression from racing.  As the favorite, I would assume the former, at a healthy price (which is likely), I can assume the latter and use her.  I will also use Doremifasolatido.  Ran 3 \"5\'s\" last year and ran the top right back first time out in a race where she looked to me like she wasn\'t at her best and may have needed it.  Jimmy Jerkens, against 2nd off the layoff, should have her wound up.  The fact he points her to this race is an aggressive trainer move, based on the comebacker, and the odds should be attractive.  2 firsts and 2 seconds at Belmont solidify my positive view on her.  Livin Lovin ran a 3 last year as a 2 year old, and now goes first out this year.  Not enough data on Birdstone yet to identify what kind of development should be expected for his offspring, but Klesaris is very solid off the long layoff and goes to Dominguez, which signals the horse is very live.  Will also use Kiaran\'s other horse, Dream Play, on the spread ticket, because she may run the 2 again, while on the lead, although she has less room for improvement, than the others, IMO.  Will be going 5 deep on the Pick-6 ticket, but throwing JWD off the ticket on the pick-4 and trying to beat her in the win pool as well, keying one of Livin Lovin, Doremifasolatido, or Funny Moon, based on prices.  

Manhattan - Probably my key race in the pick-6.  In what looks like a very wide open race, have to believe most will be using at least a couple here in the pick-6.  Court Vision is the best turf horse in the race and will show it Saturday.  I assume the turf course will be firm, when I say that.  I think we have not seen Court Vision\'s best this year.  Chased Kip Deville at 1 1/8 over a speed favoring turf course, then ran on synthetic, then ran over a boggy turf course on Derby Day, taking the inside path on the turn and in the stretch, which was easily the worst part of the turf course.  Didn\'t get the dead rail distinction from TG, but IMO, he should have gotten or it was at least a close call.  Ran the top last year at Belmont and offspring of Gulch develop 3 points on average from 3 to 4.  I believe the circumstances mentioned before have masked this horse\'s development.  I think Ramon gives him a nice ground saving trip from the inside and runs by them in the stretch. I don\'t think I get more than 3-1, but as a single in multi-race bets, I can make money with him.  I don\'t like Cowboy Cal, even though he is a hard tryer and seems to always be there.  I believe the boggy turf course played to the fact that Cowboy Cal doesn\'t have classic turf \"acceleration\" and is more of a grinder.  Don\'t believe he can stay with Court Vision late.  I think Gio Ponto wants a little less than 1 1/4.  I am tired of waiting for Zambesi Sun to run well, although he got a \"false wide\" figure last time by running wide on the better part of the turf course, which may have made up for the ground he lost.  Wesley may be interesting underneath, at a price, after a poorly timed/judged ride last time, as pointed out by several on this board already.  Cosmonaut is always a contender, as he is very consistent, and has tactical speed, but believe he also won\'t be able to stay with Court Vision late.

Belmont Stakes - Already discussed here.  Will be singling Charitable Man on most multi-race tickets, sprinkling in a little Dunkirk.  

Good luck.

[covelj70]

Jimbo, this is too much.  Check out my post.  I don\'t know if it\'s a good thing for you or not (probably not) but we have an awful lot of similarities in our initial analysis with the exception of our backups in the Acorn and the key in the Manhattan.

Back to the drawing board for both of us or time to hit the safety deposit box at Chase?

[congaree1]

Court Vision had a perfect trip at Pimlico in his last and had no punch in the lane. He was compromised by the inside like the others that day. He can easily get the distance and will save ground with the draw. Might be the favorite...

[jimbo66]

It probably means I like too much chalk......  

But just in case it is good news, I will add to the bankroll for Saturday by going to the \"reserves\" earmarked for \"guaranteed winning days\"......

[P-Dub]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo, this is too much.  Check out my post.  I
> don\'t know if it\'s a good thing for you or not
> (probably not) but we have an awful lot of
> similarities in our initial analysis with the
> exception of our backups in the Acorn and the key
> in the Manhattan.
>

Really?

Jimbo likes Desert Key,  Covel likes Fabulous Strike.
Jimbo likes I Lost my Choo while Covel says he\'s a toss.
They both like Phil
One likes Court Vision, the other doesn\'t.

Enjoyed the writeups,  well written and fine analysis.  But from here,  it looks like you guys have some distinct differences.  

Great start to the weekend discussions.

[covelj70]

well, we both like Phil, Dixie, Forever together (where we made almost exactly the same comments) and Charitable Man.

I like FS on top of DK and he likes it the other way around but we like the same two.

We disagree on the Choo and the Manhattan.  

It poured here all night last night so I really think this ground is going to be soft which will hurt the choo.

[big18741]

Keep in mind This Ones For Phil was coughing for a couple weeks in May otherwise they\'d have run him in the Met Mile.

[jack72906]

Thanks for the analysis gentlemen. The Manhattan looks like the toughest race in the sequence. Personally, I\'ll have to spread to maybe 4 or even 5.

Marsh Side- Will probably need a race after returning from Dubai.

Court Vision- Obviously has a good TG number and I really like Dominguez on the grass. Short price, but tough to toss.

Premium Gold-This is a MUST use for me. The race shapes show that he\'ll get a good trip. He\'s 1 for 1 over the strip and ran a great number his first time on turf. The likely second time turf improvement and the weight allowance makes him a must use at a price.

Gio Ponti- Obviously has the numbers to win, but I don\'t like the layoff and his running style seems to get him into trouble or wide trips. However, he\'s shows some of the best TG numbers in the field and Clement is tough to bet against in this situation. Short price, but wouldn\'t want to blow up tickets with a loss to this guy. I\'ll use him.

Champ Elysees-Probably will be in the money, but the top spot? His inconsistency tells me no.

Optimer- Not today. Just lost to Fairway Drive who just barely won a CLM25k at Belmont on Wednesday. Oh and he\'s too slow.

Wesley-He\'ll obviously be running late, I like his sheet, but when he faces this type of competition I just think he\'s outclassed. He\'ll need to improve by 4-6 lengths and the chances for traffic trouble are pretty good.

Senior- 0 for 7 on grass. That\'s enough reason to toss anyone in multi race tickets.

Better Talk Now- The old warrior showed some good form last year at Belmont running back to back 2s. Rallied from far back in the Man O War to finish 1/2 length behind Curlin and 2 1/2 behind winner RRocks. Probably not a bad play underneath. I just don\'t see him winning.

Cosmonaut-Likely improvement on the second time out this year. If he improves by 2-4 lengths, that could be good enough. However, if the turf ends up being soft, his front running style could work against him with Optimer, PG, and Cowboy Cal sitting just off of him.

Interpatation- Decent figures and looks to improve in his second race of the year, but will need to improve by 4-6 to win. Can\'t see it happening today. Not against this group.

Lauro-Every race that he\'s won in the US he wired the field. Highly doubtful that he gets the lead today. Toss.

Cowboy Cal- I\'m not crazy about the post, but his running style should get him(hopefully)to the 3 path and just sitting off the lead. The horse is in form and a repeat of the CD effort wins IMO. Definite use.

Zambezi Sun- I\'ve blown enough money on this horse already to use him.

There you have it. Gio Ponti, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, and Premium Gold. Looking forward to your opinions. Good luck everyone!

[congaree1]

Jack,

Very good analysis! I bet mostly turf races and the first thing I look at is class and distance. I agree on the post with Cowboy Cal he ran his ass of against Einstein and he is rewarded with the 12 hole.. I will be playing the grade #1 winners, just not sure who to use on top yet. CV, drew very well, but will be short and I\'m not sold on him. MS drew well also but again can\'t bet with confidence and this might not be long enough. Cosmonaut has won at the distance when he gets the lead, but he certainly won\'t have it his own way Saturday. Good overall betting race and I will be using one of the grade #1 winners on top.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

You\'ve done your homework diligently as usual, but expect that you will be
reevaluating some selections given rain and track conditions.

The forecast here is for heavier rain to fall during the afternoon and into the
evening; I believe Saturday\'s conditions will be main track good early in the day
with wet/fast conditions towards the time the late P4/ Belmont Stakes will be run.

The turf courses will likely be soft or yielding, though NYRA will likely call
them \"Good\".

Given these projected conditions, a brief look at the late Pick 4.

R8-- WOODY STEPHENS-- Agree that THIS ONES FOR PHIL has a distinct TG advantage,
but he has drawn post 1 for the 3rd straight race; his previous 2 races from the 1
post resulted in troubled trips. This may be the leg of the P4 in which I spread
most liberally.

R9 -- ACORN -- will be keying on the 2 McLaughlin runners, each of whom are Graded
stakes winners and each of whom have won at Belmont. KMac good with these sort of
intermediate layoff types. I might draw a line through the KY Oaks try of
Baffert\'s GABBY\'s GOLDEN GIRL, who has worked well locally and could be decent
odds.

R10 -- MANHATTAN -- The more it rains, the more I will like the German bred LAURO,
who was sharp on the lead on a firm turf which is not his preferred surface. Also
will be using whichever half of Frankel\'s entry goes. The 4YO contenders in this
race-- COURT VISION, GIO PONTI, WESLEY and COWBOY CAL have limited experience on
soft turf, which is not to say that anyone of them could realy take to it.

R11 -- BELMONT -- As stated elsewhere, my angle is to eliminate lightly raced
colts and colts who have never won 2 races lifetime, leaving me with CHOCOLATE
CANDY, MINE THAT BIRD, MINER\'S ESCAPE and BRAVE VICTORY.

 
$1 P4   1,2,3,4,5,8/2,7,8/2,11/1,7,9,10 = $120.

Best of Luck to All, looking forward to more educated discourse throughout the day.

[richiebee]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> R8-- WOODY STEPHENS-- Agree that THIS ONES FOR
> PHIL has a distinct TG advantage,
> but he has drawn post 1 for the 3rd straight race;
> his previous 2 races from the 1
> post resulted in troubled trips. This may be the
> leg of the P4 in which I spread
> most liberally.
>
> R9 -- ACORN -- will be keying on the 2 McLaughlin
> runners, each of whom are Graded
> stakes winners and each of whom have won at
> Belmont. KMac good with these sort of
> intermediate layoff types. I might draw a line
> through the KY Oaks try of
> Baffert\'s GABBY\'s GOLDEN GIRL, who has worked well
> locally and could be decent
> odds.
>
> R11 -- BELMONT -- As stated elsewhere, my angle is
> to eliminate lightly raced
> colts and colts who have never won 2 races
> lifetime, leaving me with CHOCOLATE
> CANDY, MINE THAT BIRD, MINER\'S ESCAPE and BRAVE
> VICTORY.
>
>  
> $1 P4   1,2,3,4,5,8/2,7,8/2,11/1,7,9,10 = $120.
>
> Best of Luck to All, looking forward to more
> educated discourse throughout the day.


Actually the Pick 4 was $144 and that was a loss.

I caught a decent win bet on Gabby, and stroked the GGG/KMac fave exacta well
down the fairway. Really my only win on the day.

TG wise, no you couldn\'t like her, especially if you discounted her mile high
4 at Sunland.

She did have two quick half mile works over the Belmont strip 5 days apart.

GGG is sired by Medaglia D\'Oro, who in the last 2 months has produced the
winners of the Kentucky Oaks, The Black Eyed Susan, The Preakness and the Acorn.

Still in all, a nice feeling to be totally wrong about the Manhattan and the
Belmont, and still come out a winner; life I love you, feelin groovy...

Until Monday comes, and the trip to the mailbox yields a letter from the
stewards at the Department of Treasury/IRS relating to a transaction which
occurred in 2004 (not pari-mutuel related). If I get taken down in this one,
I am hoping there is a federal facility somewhere where they let the detainees
work with retired thoroughbreds.

Its either sadness or euphoria...

[Michael D.]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > R8-- WOODY STEPHENS-- Agree that THIS ONES FOR
> > PHIL has a distinct TG advantage,
> > but he has drawn post 1 for the 3rd straight
> race;
> > his previous 2 races from the 1
> > post resulted in troubled trips. This may be
> the
> > leg of the P4 in which I spread
> > most liberally.
> >
> > R9 -- ACORN -- will be keying on the 2
> McLaughlin
> > runners, each of whom are Graded
> > stakes winners and each of whom have won at
> > Belmont. KMac good with these sort of
> > intermediate layoff types. I might draw a line
> > through the KY Oaks try of
> > Baffert\'s GABBY\'s GOLDEN GIRL, who has worked
> well
> > locally and could be decent
> > odds.
> >
> > R11 -- BELMONT -- As stated elsewhere, my angle
> is
> > to eliminate lightly raced
> > colts and colts who have never won 2 races
> > lifetime, leaving me with CHOCOLATE
> > CANDY, MINE THAT BIRD, MINER\'S ESCAPE and BRAVE
> > VICTORY.
> >
> >  
> > $1 P4   1,2,3,4,5,8/2,7,8/2,11/1,7,9,10 = $120.
> >
> > Best of Luck to All, looking forward to more
> > educated discourse throughout the day.
>
>
> Actually the Pick 4 was $144 and that was a loss.
>
> I caught a decent win bet on Gabby, and stroked
> the GGG/KMac fave exacta well
> down the fairway. Really my only win on the day.
>
> TG wise, no you couldn\'t like her, especially if
> you discounted her mile high
> 4 at Sunland.
>
> She did have two quick half mile works over the
> Belmont strip 5 days apart.
>
> GGG is sired by Medaglia D\'Oro, who in the last 2
> months has produced the
> winners of the Kentucky Oaks, The Black Eyed
> Susan, The Preakness and the Acorn.


I wish I had that view going in Richie. I would have moved up 3G over the surface and had a few hits. I just didn\'t like the filly. Do you subscribe to the view that Baffert is more effective over quick surfaces? Anyway, good pick.

[Leamas57]

I played Cool Coal Play at Belmont today because of the GGG experience. Faded badly last time out at CD but had the ability a few races and months back. That helped to get me at least the late pick four and beat Mister Triester. Wired \'em and I really think I would have singled MT without the GGG experience in my head.

Bill