Tough game..... just got tougher !

[bellsbendboy]

While battling well-heeled, wheelers and dealers, armed with ample bankrolls and stacks of expensive data has never been easy.. the game just got much tougher.

This mornings press release from Equibase, indicating their intention to include the turf rail placements on the data they produce is not good news to competent handicappers.  Sooner or later, lesser cappers will learn the effect the rail movement has on inner race dynamics and make better prerace conclusions as to pace and the inevitable ground loss.

Certainly many here at this forum loaded with handicapping acumen are aware and use the movement, but the great majority of handicappers have no clue. As the owner of over 150 books,articles and essays on handicapping only a few even mention the movement and none of them in the depth it deserves.

According to the press release; runups are also going to be included.

Talented cappers, shorter fields, onerous takeouts, ignorant politicians running the sport and now this.......  playing tomorrow anyway!  bbb

[Leamas57]

Would love your two-cents on the effect of the widener and rail placement!

[TGJB]

Equibase has been gathering turf rails for a long time, we get them from them with the other data. Not happy the Evil Empire will have them too (their trackmen historically have been not so hot), but the info is also published most if not all the time in the DRF charts. Anybody serious enough to pay attention to that info is serious enough to dig it out there.

The run-up data is another story. Anything that makes it easier for other figure makers can\'t be good for us or our customers.

[miff]

Most data shows rails \"set out\" is favorable to speed horses.Some success with that notion but turf racing by it\'s nature is a last quarter sprint to the wire with some horses having explosive acceleration that last eighth.

Have personally found that saving ground on turf more critical than on dirt.

Mike

[Leamas57]

Thanks, Mike:

That makes sense--thanks!

Bill

[number5858]

I wish we could get good shoe information. Knowing who is running in bar shoes and sometimes mud caulks or bends is very useful, but only some tracks will publish it other than right before the race.

[TGJB]

If you look at Lukas\' horse running a stinker in Ky, then running 30 lengths better 2 weeks later in Md, there is other useful information the public does not have. I\'m limited in the things I say in my comments, but there were reasons other than the mud that made me think that horse would run better.

[bellsbendboy]

No argument with that and it is really not that complicated.  Horses run faster on straights than they do on turns.

In a nutshell, when the rail is up/out, the starting gate is moved down the stretch towards the finish and \"more\" of the race is run on turns.  Thus the pace is slower and speed types are flattered.  

Conversely, come from behind turf horses enjoy the configuration when the race is on the hedge because \"more\" of the race is run on straights and logically the pace is faster.

The worst bet on turf is a deep closer with the rail up/out.  Case in point.  

Last Sunday (May 10) at Hollywood the late pick four had three likely winners    ( $7.00, $4.80, $4.40 ) and a turf race.  The one mile turf heat featured a top heavy favorite from the Drysdale barn that had not raced in a year and a fifty-fifty chance to run out.  Many services \"gave out\" Box Office Queen as their best bet*.  \"Box\" off as the 21-10 second choice, had two solid seconds in this class and came from a powerful barn, but those seconds were on the hedge and as a deep closer she did not fugure to like the configuration with the rail at fifteen feet.  The opening half went in :48 and change and she had little chance checking in third.  The winner paid some $35 in her turf debut and made the four worthwhile, some $600 for a buck.

Chutes, short fields and courses larger than seven-eights water the tenet down some but the assumption that horses run faster on straights coupled with basic geometry has held for decades and will continue, albeit at shorter prices.

*  Many services have to have their selections in early and it is a bit unusual for the rail to be in use on weekends.  BBB

[miff]

Thanks Bell,

For some reason,maybe just a coincidence,the rail \"out\' at Cali tracks seems to be extra beneficial to speed. Monmouth and esp Gulfstream(huge new turf course) does not seem to carry speed as well as CALI when the rails are out.Have no stats,just an eyeball type observation and I watch those fairly infrequently.

Belmonts weird config,esp 1/16 on the inner is usually death valley for speed regardless of rail placement.The angle from the gate to the hedge is so severe, the outside horses lose enormous ground unless they are sent hard for position.

Still some tidbits but agree that the sophistication level of the newer players is far greater than it was just 5-10 years ago.Aside from the Gold Standard data, you have this very \"busy\" looking Bris data that I see quite a few using and, for the money, it\'s not bad.

Surely a tough game that\'s getting tougher.Cali racing in dire straits, no?

Mike

[HP]

Miff,

Good one...but I have noticed they are running less of those 1-1/16 Inner races at Belmont these days...  That \"inside\" angle was a good one...but I\'m not seeing the chance to use it as much.

HP

[Beginner]

This will sound really stupid, but I\'ll ask anyway as I\'m just trying to learn.  Does the rail actually move in / out on turf races? Perhaps I\'m making your case in point.

[miff]

Beginner,

Turf rails are portable,they actualy move them.

HP,

Yeah, some nice opportunities there.It\'s early grass season and we had lots of rain/off the turf days already.Racing Sec, P.J.Campo a turf freak, expect lots of grass,weather permitting.


Mike